Hola amigos, I know it's been a long time since I rapped at ya but I'm back for another slate of Buckeye football, starting off with my annual bold predictions for the upcoming season.
While I've been absent from 11W in digital print since the conclusion of spring practice, I've been rolling with Jason, along with Ramzy and Jones, on the Eleven Warriors (YouTube) Show, thus paying close attention to the men of the scarlet and gray as Ryan Day's squad preps for a natty or bust campaign.
Of course that probably won't help with the accuracy of my annual bold predictions column but hey, go big or go home. Nobody wants to beat their chest next January after proclaiming in August that "Caleb Downs will be good."
That said, let's get to it. Here are my five bold predictions for the 2024 Ohio State football season.
OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TACKLES FOR LOSS PER GAME
I know all Ohio State fans are expecting a big season from the defense and that certainly checks out as the unit returns nine starters and welcomed one elite transfer starter in safety Caleb Downs after last year's outfit ranked No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 3 in total defense.
Against that backdrop you could argue projecting Jim Knowles' group to rank in the top-10 nationally in tackles for loss isn't very bold. But while last year's defense stood tall in numerous metrics, the Buckeyes ranked a mere 73rd in tackles for loss per game as Knowles prioritized limiting big plays above all else. That was understandable after his 2022 squad gave up 11 plays of 50+ yards to rank No. 123 nationally.
Ohio State has produced a top-10 tackles for loss per game defense just twice in at least the last 15 seasons. Hell, over those last 15 seasons the Buckeyes have only ranked inside the top-25 in TFLs per game four times.
To rank inside the top-10 this year in TFLs per game, based off last year, the Buckeyes will need to average around 7.50 per contest. Ohio State's defenses have done that exactly twice over the last 15 years.
Last season, again with the Knowles often playing it conservative to take away big gainers, Ohio State posted four or less tackles for loss in five of 13 contests (31%).
This season, I expect Knowles to dial up a bit more blitz pressure and/or disguise his intentions than last year and I expect the defensive line to create increased havoc via a better one-on-one win rate. Tyleik Williams and Jack Sawyer should again reach double-digit TFL numbers for the season and this time around, they won't be alone.
Put me down for Ohio State to average at least 7.5 tackles per loss per contest and rank inside the top-10 for the first time since 2019.
OHIO STATE'S DEFENSE RANKS IN THE TOP-10 NATIONALLY IN TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS
This one kinda tags onto the last one so we'll get to it now. As noted above, as good as last year's defense was at many things, it failed to create much havoc. Not only in lack of negative plays forced but also in creating turnovers.
The 2023 Buckeyes ranked 110th nationally with seven fumble recoveries and No. 112 with a disappointing seven interceptions. The latter ranking was easily Ohio State's worst over at least the last 15 years. Last season, again with Knowles focused on limiting big plays and making offenses execute their way down the field, the Buckeye secondary wasn't all that aggressive despite having some legit talent.
That said, "BIA" hasn't exactly been an interception machine over that same span ranking in the top-10 in total interceptions just three times over the last 15 years with only five seasons seeing the Buckeyes rank inside the top-25. The last time Ohio State finished in the top-10 in interceptions over a full season came back in 2016 when the Buckeyes picked off 21 throws to rank No. 4.
This year, with Knowles picking up the aggressiveness a bit and Ohio State featuring the likes of Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun, Jordan Hancock, Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom, among others in the secondary - plus expecting more push from the front four - interceptions should be plentiful as teams play from behind early and often.
Bonus: Jordan Hancock leads the Buckeyes in picks.
EMEKA EGBUKA GOES OVER 1,000 FOR THE SEASON, SETS ALL-TIME SCHOOL RECEIVING YARDS RECORD
These days, It's easy for some to take 1,000-yard receiving seasons for granted in Columbus knowing Ohio State's receiving corps have logged five such campaigns over the last three seasons - and six in total - since Day took the co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach gig ahead of the 2017 season. That said, four of those six came during C.J. Stroud's two years as the triggerman of Day's aerial attack.
Entering Saturday, Egbuka is 1,042 yards away from breaking Michael Jenkins' career receiving yards record and already has a 1,000-yard season under his belt via a 74-reception, 1,151-yard, 10 touchdown performance guided by Stroud in '22.
I like Egbuka to reach the 1,000-yard mark and best it by at least those needed 42 yards to own the school's career receiving yards record. The fact I expect him to play 16 games this year is part of the equation. If that happens, he'll need to average a little over 65 yards per outing. During the last two seasons as a starter, he averaged 72 yards per game.
The reasons Egbuka could fall short on this prediction are many. Will Howard isn't going to match Stroud's production or accuracy which helped Egbuka averaged 88 receiving yards yards per game two years ago. Ohio State presumably wants to Run. The. Damn. Ball. more this fall and the Buckeyes project to have at least three other legit wide receiver targets in Carnell Tate, Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield. Staying healthy is also never a given.
Despite all that, I'm bullish on Egbuka etching his name in the OSU history book.
JAMES PEOPLES* AND JAYLEN MCCLAIN EMERGE AS TOP OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE TRUE FRESHMEN (*FRESHMAN NOT NAMED JEREMIAH SMITH)
I know this could be subjective but I'm betting Peoples and McClain will look so good in reserve duty that I'll have a strong argument this prediction cashed in. (But yeah, let me reiterate, I have Peoples as the top offensive true freshman not named Jeremiah Smith because that dude is going to have at least 750 receiving yards.)
And while all the focus is squarely on the high stakes 2024 season, regardless of if this veteran team reaches its goals, the 2025 season figures to depend on a high volume of what will be first-year starters. As such, Day would be wise to provide as many reps as possible to underclassmen in prep for next year.
Peoples, the 126th-ranked prospect in 247Sports' 2024 class, looks to be the top reserve behind co-starting tailbacks TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and had his black stripe removed back on August 9. Even as a third-stringer he could earn a good bit of run as Day looks to keep the two-headed monster fresh over what he hopes will be a very long season.
On the other side of the ball, McClain arrived in Columbus as a three-star safety prospect ranked just 373rd in 247Sports' composite but he's turned heads since January, recorded a pick in the spring game and has continued to show flashes in fall practice leading to a black stripe removal back on August 7.
The lack of depth at safety should only help McClain's chances of seeing Year One snaps as he seems destined for a spot on the two-deep alongside Malik Hartford and behind starters Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom.
Peoples feels like a gamble here because quarterback Julian Sayin projects to have a great chance to be Ohio State's starting quarterback next year so Day will want to get him as much action as reasonable. On defense, I suppose Eddrick Houston, Aaron Scott or Payton Pierce have the best chance to outshine McClain.
OHIO STATE BEATS MICHIGAN BY AT LEAST 14 POINTS EN ROUTE TO THE NATIONAL TITLE
You could call me a homer here especially considering this will be the third consecutive season where I'm picking Ohio State to win a natty in this column but in my defense, I did not pick the Buckeyes to win the title in the three preceding editions of Bold Predictions.
With Ohio State ranked No. 2 in the AP preseason poll, returning a shit ton of starters and primed for a run, maybe it's not all that bold. But winning a national title takes a lot more than talent and dammit, if/when it does happen, I want to be able to have a record that I was all-in on it happening.
I won't be surprised if the Buckeyes lose a close one on the road versus Oregon in Week Six but I will be surprised if Ohio State doesn't give Michigan a proper thumping in late November in the Shoe. I respect the rivalry as much as anyone but looking at the two rosters and believing in the addition of Chip Kelly and the benefit that will bring to the offense and to Ryan Day as CEO, I just think the stars align for the Buckeyes to win by at least two touchdowns. After that, Day's squad wins the Big Ten title and beats Georgia to claim the national title.
