Big Ten play has officially arrived.
Michigan State
Spartans
Ohio State plays its first conference game and its first road game of the season on Saturday night as the Buckeyes take on Michigan State in East Lansing. While Ohio State is favored to beat Michigan State by more than 20 points for the eighth year in a row, the Spartans will give the Buckeyes their toughest test of the season to date after Ohio State opened the season with a trio of games against Group of 5 teams.
With that in mind, we share our biggest questions entering the Buckeyes’ conference opener, our top players to watch against Michigan State and some predictions for what we think we’ll see happen in East Lansing tonight.
Questions
Can the run game continue its dominance?
Even though Ohio State has rushed for 553 yards and 11 touchdowns in its last two games, Ryan Day wasn’t eager to heap praise on the Buckeyes’ running game when asked about it during his Tuesday press conference. Instead, Day said he didn’t think the Buckeyes are “in any place right now to make any judgments on where we are.”
While he didn’t say so outright, the unspoken part of Day’s refusal to make any proclamations about the run game’s improvement is the reality that Western Michigan and Marshall’s run defenses couldn’t truly test the Buckeyes. Every team Ohio State has faced so far this season ranks 90th or lower nationally in rushing yards allowed per attempt, but Michigan State will provide a big step up in competition as the Spartans rank 14th in the FBS with only 2.61 yards allowed per carry.
Ohio State will have much more reason to believe its run-game improvement is real if it can put up big numbers on the ground again in this game.
– Dan Hope
Can the Buckeyes limit the QB run?
Over the first three games, my primary gripe with the Buckeyes' defense so far has been the susceptibility to the running game from opposing quarterbacks. Ohio State hasn't faced a more capable scrambler than Aidan Chiles this season, so it will be telling to see how Jim Knowles schemes to take that part of his game away from the Spartans.
- Garrick Hodge
Can the defensive line get after the quarterback?
Ohio State's front four didn't knock Marshall's quarterback off his spot with the same frequency it did against Akron and Western Michigan. Part of that is a more straight-up play style against Marshall's quick passing game, but the Buckeyes went from 17 quarterback pressures against the Zips to 15 against the Broncos to 11 against the Thundering Herd, per Pro Football Focus.
– Andy Anders
How does Will Howard look on the road?
With 34 appearances and 27 starts across four seasons at Kansas State, Howard has been in a lot of stadiums throughout his career. However, in the wise words of Meek Mill, there are levels to this s—. None of those appearances or starts has provided him with the experience to lead an Ohio State offense on the road in a hostile environment. When the Buckeyes and Spartans kick off on Saturday, we will learn quickly whether or not Howard is up for the task; that is, taking care of the football and making the routine plays routinely.
- Chase Brown
Players to Watch
Caleb Downs
Downs hasn’t been tested much in his first three games as a Buckeye, but that’s likely to change tonight against a quarterback who likes to take shots over the middle of the field. Ohio State will need Downs to be on his game against a quarterback who’s both a gifted deep passer and a threat to take off and run the ball, and tonight could be the night he starts to show the Big Ten why he was an All-American as a true freshman at Alabama.
– Dan Hope
Quinshon Judkins
Judkins has produced back-to-back 100-plus yard games and it's fun to think about what the talented junior can do for an encore. He'll still likely be in a timeshare with TreVeyon Henderson for this matchup, but Judkins has proven in the past two contests he's a home-run hitter and a threat to take it the distance any time he gets a carry.
- Garrick Hodge
Jack Sawyer
Circling back to what I said earlier about Ohio State needing more pressure on the quarterback, Sawyer has been the Buckeyes' most effective weapon to do that through three games. Though he only has one sack, Sawyer is up to seven quarterback hits in 2024 with 11 total pressures. Only one hit and one pressure came against Marshall.
– Andy Anders
JT Tuimoloau
Andy picked Sawyer; I'll pick Tuimoloau. Why? Because I need to see more from the senior defensive end as Ohio State enters Big Ten competition. In the Buckeyes' wins over Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall, Tuimoloau collected seven tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. That's not bad, but it's not great, either – at least not for a player with aspirations of being an All-American and first-round NFL draft pick.
- Chase Brown
Predictions
Ohio State intercepts three passes
Aidan Chiles has thrown at least two interceptions in all of his first three games against FBS opponents as Michigan State’s quarterback, and I don’t expect that to change against the nation’s best secondary. After back-to-back games in which Ohio State didn’t force any turnovers, tonight will be a great opportunity to change that, and I believe the Buckeyes will capitalize.
– Dan Hope
The Buckeyes have more than 225 team rushing yards
I'm completely bullish on Ohio State's running game entering this matchup, especially since there may be rainy conditions throughout the contest. The two running back tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson should be too much for Michigan State and I project the Buckeyes to run for more than 225 yards as a team in their first Big Ten contest of the year.
- Garrick Hodge
Two Ohio State receivers hit 100 yards
I believe Michigan State's defense, which has been sound all year, hits a boiling point of talent in this game where the Buckeyes move the ball at will through the air and on the ground. Two out of Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate hit triple-digits for receiving yards and the Buckeyes' passing game finds solid footing in Big Ten play.
- Andy Anders
An Ohio State tight end catches a touchdown pass
Through three games, Ohio State hasn't relied on its tight ends much in the passing game. Bennett Christian leads the position room with one catch for 55 yards and a touchdown, while Will Kacmarek has three catches for 14 yards, Gee Scott Jr. has one catch for five yards and Jelani Thurman has one catch for three yards. When Michigan State expects it the least, Howard will target Kacmarek or Scott in the end zone, and one of them will record their first touchdown of the year.
- Chase Brown
