One sunrise.
Just one more to go until No. 9 Ohio State battles unranked Michigan at high noon in Ann Arbor.
While Michigan is once again playing for pride as the fourth-place squad in the five-team B1G East, the Buckeyes still have designs on making a run at the College Football Playoff and thus need a stellar performance ahead of a B1G championship date with Wisconsin next weekend.
Ohio State enters The Game as a 12.5-point favorite as Urban Meyer looks to make it a perfect 6-0 against Michigan including 3-0 against Jim Harbaugh.
To get your mind right for tomorrow's grudge match, we welcome Buckeye national champion Joshua Perry back to the 11W roundtable since things worked out pretty well the last time he joined as Ohio State took down Penn State.
Alongside Joshua this week, staffers Dan, DJ and Kevin round out an all-star cast.
Let's eat.
The team that wins the line of scrimmage usually wins The Game. The Ohio State offensive line comes in with momentum and boasts the league’s best rushing attack (252.5 ypg) while the Wolverines are giving up 116.8 yards per game. Will Ohio State control this matchup? What will a successful rushing day look like for Ohio State as they go up against Don Brown’s defense?
Joshua: Well, I remember back when I matched up in big college games at OSU. Our offensive line was usually the difference in the game. I think that we surprised folks against Michigan State and Penn State this year with sound, physical o-line play, so I don’t see why we won’t continue that success. This o-line group is much improved from earlier this year and they’re playing really hard too. against a stout TUN d-line, I think we will have enough success running the ball Saturday to make a difference in the game.
Dan: I think Ohio State's offensive line will ultimately be able to control the matchup with Michigan's defensive line if the Buckeyes are willing to commit to the power running game like they have in their past two games. Michigan's defensive line is strong, but it doesn't have the depth to rotate players in and out of the lineup like Ohio State does. If Ohio State's defense can force three-and-outs and put Michigan's defense back on the field repeatedly, Ohio State's offensive line – which has been excellent, especially in recent weeks – should be able to wear the Wolverines defense out and open holes for Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins to do their thing.
But the Buckeyes can't panic, like they have tended to do in big games in the past. If the Buckeyes stop giving the ball to their running backs as soon as they get stopped a couple times, Ohio State will prevent itself from controlling this matchup. But if the Buckeyes go in confident that they can move the ball on the Wolverines and stick to their game plan if early adversity hits, I think they will be able to control the matchup.
DJ: Ohio State is going to win this Game because they will control both trenches. Anything over 250 will be considered a success given Michigan will likely stuff the box from the beginning to try and make J.T Barrett throw the ball. I think the Bucks go for over 300, though.
Kevin: Ohio State’s going to rush for over 200 yards on Saturday between J.T. Barrett, Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins with Barrett as the leading rusher.
I think Michigan is going to try to take the Buckeye running backs out of the game, giving Barrett plenty of carries – following a similar recipe as Iowa earlier this year and Michigan State in previous years.
I don’t think the Wolverines are going to be able to shut down the Ohio State rushing attack the entire game. And even if they do, other things will open up, such as the bubble screen releases or slant and drag routes across the middle.
Ohio State just has too many weapons to be shut down for an entire game. Even against Iowa, who had a perfect game plan to slow down the Buckeye offense, Ohio State countered pretty well and would have been able to get the win had the defense kept the game closer.
J.T. Barrett has designs on becoming the first Buckeye starting quarterback to win four straight over Michigan. To do it, he’ll need to navigate the best pass defense in the B1G (144.4 pass ypg). What kind of day do you anticipate from Barrett through the air?
Kevin: I think J.T. Barrett will be effective through the air on Saturday. I expect Michigan to try to slow down the run first, and that should open up the passing game, particularly those short-yardage, high-percentage throws.
Adding to this, I think Ohio State will have a lot of possessions because Michigan won’t be able to keep the ball for long stretches offensively.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d say Barrett finishes with just over 200 yards passing on Saturday, and over 100 yards on the ground.
DJ: So many moving parts to predicting this one. Will Ohio State run the dang ball or will it revert to the old ways and try to come out with Barrett slinging? Will we see the QB of the last two weeks or the one we saw at Iowa?
I want to buy into the storylines and thinks he lays down one of his best performances of the year. But after getting undressed by Iowa, I can’t act like that’s a formality. Michigan’s pass defense scares me more than their rush defense. Ultimately, I think Barrett gets enough done, 250ish yards and a couple touchdowns, to keep Ohio State impressive in the eyes of voters.
Joshua: I think J.T.'s success depends on three things: throwing out of a clean pocket, his receivers getting open in coverage, and creative play calling. J.T. has a lot of success when he can go through his progression without being under pressure. That also goes together with good WR play. A pass rush is much more successful when wide receivers can’t get open and find soft spots in coverage, so they will need to help him out there. Finally, scheme will be important. I want to see some creative play calling and some schemed up passes, especially early on and on third downs. If the bucks can have some consistency in those three categories, J.T. will have a great day throwing the ball.
Dan: I expect the type of game from J.T. Barrett that we've become accustomed to seeing from Ohio State's senior quarterback: one in which he might not make many spectacular throws, and probably has a few misfires that bring out the haters, but ultimately makes the plays he needs to make in both the passing and the running games to get the job done and lead the Buckeyes to a win. Unless he gets a few big plays from the likes of Parris Campbell and Johnnie Dixon turning short passes into long gains in the open field, he won't throw for 300 yards – not against this Michigan defense, which has allowed only one 200-yard passer all season.
Going back to my previous answer, though, the Buckeyes won't need him to throw for a ton of yards as long as they commit to the running game. They just need him to come up with some key plays on crucial downs and avoid turnovers, and if he can hit even a couple long passes, that could stretch the Michigan defense out for the run game and/or shake the Wolverines' confidence and open up more plays in the passing game.
Michigan’s offensive line ranks 103rd in the nation giving up 2.64 sacks per game while the squad’s rushing attack ranks 35th in the land with 194 yards per game. Might Ohio State’s defensive line versus Michigan’s offensive line be the biggest head-to-head mismatch in this game? If you’re Meyer/Schiano, are you generally selling out to stop the run and forcing Michigan to throw, or maybe you’re content to play base not thinking Michigan can consistently execute as necessary to score on long drives?
Dan: Ohio State's defensive line should have the advantage over Michigan's offensive line, especially in pass-rushing situations, but the bigger issue for the Wolverines could be at quarterback, especially if John O'Korn ends up being their starter. O'Korn has a tendency to hold the ball too long in the pocket, which Ohio State's defensive line should feast on. So I do think Ohio State should try to force Michigan to throw, especially if O'Korn is the quarterback taking the snaps, because it can put the Wolverines in situation where he could make mistakes or the Buckeyes could bring him down in the backfield for loss of yardage. And if you take Urban Meyer and Ohio State's defensive players at their word, that seems to be the plan, as they sure seem to be more concerned about Michigan's run game than its passing game, regardless of who the Wolverines' starting quarterback on Saturday ultimately might be.
DJ: If I’m Schiano, which thankfully for Buckeye fans I’m not, I’m selling out on covering the tight end because Michigan hasn’t had a competent rushing attack since before Jim Harbaugh arrived. I expect they’ll try to copy Iowa’s game plan, which was throw to the tight end every time.
Baker and Worley need to play disciplined football this week, because Pep Hamilton will undoubtedly try to use their aggressiveness against them. Thankfully they won’t have a competent rushing attack that make play-action an effective weapon.
Kevin: I’m trying not to sound too arrogant here, but I really don’t think it really matters that much what Ohio State does defensively because Michigan’s offense is hot garbage.
The Wolverines have played three games against teams with a respectable defense – Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin – and scored 10, 13 and 10 against them respectively. I’d argue Ohio State’s defense, led by that ungodly defensive line, is better than any of those three teams. On paper, I don’t see Michigan scoring more than like, once in this game.
To answer your question, yes. You play to stop the run first and force Michigan to beat you through the air. And if John O’Korn throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns to down the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor, I’d just tip the cap.
Joshua: I think it’ll be interesting to watch this battle. Ohio State’s front seven is probably licking their chops, but don’t look for TUN to just lay down. If I’m running the defense, I’m getting a feel for the run game early on. I’ll get a taste of the flavor of the day and then execute my run plan from there. Ultimately, I would want to create negative plays in the run game, so I can play to my defense’s strength- THE PASS RUSH. Put them behind the sticks and behind on the scoreboard and then let Bosa and Co. hunt.
In this rivalry, the game is sometimes decided as one particular player has a magical day. We’ve seen it from Beanie Wells, Desmond Howard, Troy Smith and others. Looking at this from a Wolverine perspective, give us one player you’re a little nervous about. I can only think of three guys, two of which are on defense, but curious where you’re head’s at?
Joshua: On defense, it would be Baker. He’s been solid this year, although i believe he has more in the tank and this is the game to show it. He can create plays defending the run, as well and sacking the QB and picking off the ball in the pass game. His presence alone can break the game.
On offense, the one player that could do it, to me, is Parris Campbell. He can rush the ball on jet sweeps and can be a TD threat with deep ball and catch and run in the intermediate game. Being a multi-dimensional threat like that is a problem for defenses. I think Parris still has a lot to show us too, and this game is the best time to show it.
DJ: Mike McCray on the defense and Donovan Peoples-Jones on the offense.
An Ohioan always seems to make plays against Ohio State in this Game, and as a captain, McCray fits that profile. Sequin Barkley flayed him because Michigan coaches kept asking McCray to cover him in space for some reason, but he and fellow outside linebacker Devin Bush are both capable playmakers.
As for DPJ, I’ve watched more of Michigan than any non-Ohio State team. DPJ has had mistakes this year and can be an adventure on punt return, but he’s electric with the ball in his hands. I don’t think he’ll throw up 150 yards or anything wild like that, but I do think him capable of making a back-breaking play should the Wolverines keep it close in the fourth quarter. He’s going to be a good one for Michigan should it ever find a quarterback capable of consistently completing passes to receivers
Dan: Defensive linemen Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary are Michigan's two best players, but the player I've had circled all year as a potential breakout player in this game is Donovan Peoples-Jones. He only has 16 receptions for 219 yards for the season, but he's coming off his best game of the year, when he caught four catches for 64 yards and nearly had his first touchdown catch of the season, though he was ruled out of bounds on the latter (giving Michigan, once again, reason to be unhappy about an official's call). He's a five-star recruit with the talent to emerge as one of college football's best receivers over the next couple years, while he is also dangerous as a punt returner, having scored a touchdown in that capacity earlier this year against Air Force.
Now I'm not going to predict that he'll have a big game on Saturday, because he hasn't had any consistency in production this year, and the Wolverines' uncertainty at quarterback doesn't help matters. Ohio State's cornerbacks have also been quietly excellent in recent weeks, so the Buckeyes are more than capable of holding their own against him. But if Michigan's offense is going to spring to unexpected life on Saturday, Peoples-Jones is the player who could ignite a spark.
Kevin: I’ll give you one guy on each side of the ball.
On defense, it’s Rashan Gary. He came into Michigan as the consensus No. 1 player in the 2016 class, and in a shocking turn of events, he’s pretty good in college. He’s a freak athlete, with the size to play on the interior and the speed of an elite pass rusher. If there’s one guy on defense the Buckeyes need to be aware of every snap, it’s him.
On offense, I’m going with freshman Donovan Peoples-Jones. I think he’s the most electric player on an offense that’s generally pretty lethargic. He doesn’t get a ton of touches or targets, due in large part to Michigan’s lack of a quarterback and run-heavy offense, but he’s a potential game breaker in the punt return game and as a potential deep threat.
For my money, and I assume yours, Ohio State versus Michigan is the greatest rivalry in sports. Give us your top three sports rivalries and briefly justify the order.
Kevin: Yeah, Ohio State and Michigan takes the crown in my mind.
In all reality, the top three is probably made up of a few international soccer rivalries – El Classico, Roma vs Lazio and Manchester United vs. Liverpool come to mind – but we’re just going to pretend those don’t exist.
I’m going with Ohio State and Michigan at No. 1, followed by Army and Navy at No. 2, which in my opinion is the only other rivalry that might top Ohio State and Michigan.
Next, I’m going with Duke and North Carolina at No. 3. The Iron Bowl is a severely overrated rivalry for quite a few reasons and I can’t put the Red Sox and Yankees on this list because they play each other like 18 times a year.
Joshua: OSU vs UM: Duh.
Duke vs UNC: This one is talked about across the country, but you wouldn’t believe how many guys in my college and NFL locker rooms talk about this rivalry. Recruits take visits to these schools just to see the game- no joke. It’s a big time deal.
This last one is hard. I’m feeling Lakers vs Celtics. I’m thinking Yankees vs Red Sox, but I’m gonna take it a different direction here. THE OLENTANGY BRAVES AND THE OLENTANGY ORANGE PIONEERS HAVE THE THIRD GREATEST RIVALRY IN SPORTS (best in high school sports). Don’t @ me.
Dan: Ohio State vs. Michigan is a great rivalry, but there's no better rivalry in sports than Army vs. Navy. As important as it is for Ohio State to beat Michigan and Michigan to beat Ohio State, it's not the same as Army vs. Navy, where one game – a game that stands alone on the college football schedule and has no ramifications on the College Football Playoff – is truly what defines each team's season. It's a game that has nothing to do with impressing a committee or an NFL scout, but everything to do with school pride, among some of the most honorable men among us, who will ultimately be members of the same team as they fight battles that are far more important than football games. Rivalries tend to be defined by the bad blood between the combatants, and there's nothing wrong with that, but there's something special about the pageantry, respect and sportsmanship of the Army-Navy Game that sets it apart from every other rivalry in my book.
From a more personal angle, the No. 2 rivalry on my list is Red Sox vs. Yankees, because as a kid from Massachusetts, it's the rivalry I grew up on. I wouldn't consider myself to be a big Red Sox fan or a Yankees hater, but I did watch many Red Sox-Yankees games growing up and can still replay many of the rivalry's recent iconic moments in my head, because of how frequently they would be replayed on TV where I grew up.
But before I get chased out of here with pitchforks and torches, I will tell you that the No. 3 rivalry on my list is Ohio State vs. Michigan, because I do believe it is the greatest rivalry not involving service academies in college football – and there's no sport that fosters better rivalries, as a whole, than college football.
DJ: Honestly, I don’t care about any other sports enough to have rivalry rankings. Lakers and Celtics was fun while I did, though.
Your most hated Wolverine is _____. Why?
Dan: I know this answer is a cop-out, but I truly don't have a "most hated Wolverine." Because I don't grow up following the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry closely, and started getting involved in covering the team as soon as I could after becoming an Ohio State student, I never became invested in the rivalry as a fan to the point where I would foster such emotions toward a player on the opposing team. Even if I was, though, I'm still not sure I'd have a most hated Wolverine, given my age: Ohio State has won just about every game in the rivalry since I reached the age that I started following football, so what's there to hate?
Joshua: I would say Mike Hart. He played when I was really getting into the rivalry. He disrespected OSU and finished 0-4 against us. That’s hate-able. On another note, a new friendship I’m developing is with Kyle Kalis. We were both early commits to OSU for the class of 2012. Kyle flipped when coach Tressel resigned. Among other things, he said he wanted to be somewhere stable, and that when OSU and TUN played, there would be blood on the field and it wouldn’t be his. There isn’t a week that goes by where I don’t bring that up. LOL.
DJ: Fucking Charles Woodson. A turncoat who was actually a great player that went on to bully the Browns for seemingly a 50-year NFL career on all 31 other teams. I did once hear that he’s not welcome back home in Fremont, Ohio, so at least there’s that.
Kevin: Jourdan Lewis.
Yes, out of all the great villains through this rivalry’s history like Charles Woodson, Desmond Howard or even someone more recent like Jabrill Peppers, I’m choosing Jourdan Lewis.
It’s not that he’s super threatening or was annoyingly successful against the local team, he just straight up sucks. With the way he talks, you’d think he’d beaten Ohio State four-straight times in his career, never allowing a single reception.
The dude is constantly starting beef he has no business starting, such as claiming Michael Thomas – who is currently one of the top ten receivers in the NFL – wouldn’t even be drafted in the second round (he was – Lewis was not), crying to Mike Weber and Raekwon McMillan about referees after losing to Ohio State for a fourth-straight time, and most recently took pride in a near pregame scuffle before a game his team lost and then taking exception when members of the winning team called him out on it.
I audibly cheered when he gave up a game-clinching touchdown on a 50-50 ball to end his college career. It was beautiful.
Which edition of The Game stands as the most memorable for you? Why?
DJ: The 2002 game because Ohio State later won the natty, unlike the debacle after the 2006 game. I was only 15 when it happened, but I remember my mom damn near in tears when they blew the final whistle. After so many years of living in the Upside Down against Michigan, it seemed to lift a generational curse off the entire state that’s still in effect today.
Dan: Picking from the games that I've been at in person (2011, 2012 and 2013), because those typically do tend to be the most memorable, the one that stands out in my mind is 2013. First of all, it was a thrilling game, decided by Tyvis Powell's interception – on a play he knew was coming thanks to Ohio State assistant coach Kerry Coombs – on what could have been a game-winning two-point conversion attempt by Michigan.
The other memorable moment of that game, of course, was Marcus Hall's double-bird salute to the Michigan Stadium crowd after being ejected following a first-half skirmish. Yet perhaps the most memorable moment of the entire day was stopping for dinner on the drive back from Ann Arbor and being surrounded by Ohio State fans who went wild as Auburn's Chris Davis made the most famous missed field goal return touchdown in college football history, seemingly punching the Buckeyes' ticket to the national championship game (until they lost to Michigan State one week later).
Kevin: It has to be 2006 for me. I was 12 years old, which was probably the perfect age to enjoy a game like that. My Michigan and my emotional attachment to the Buckeyes were both at an all-time high, and of course, it was No. 1 vs. No. 2.
I watched the game at my sister’s house in Toledo with a mixture of Ohio State and Michigan fans and loved every minute of it. I’ll have Beanie Wells’ touchdown run and that beautiful play-action touchdown pass to Ted Ginn Jr. engrained in my memory forever.
Joshua: “The Game of the Century, ”OSU vs TUN 2006. It’s a classic game. A back and forth battle between heavyweights. It was when I was coming up as a player, my second or third year of playing. It made me wanna be a Buckeye.
Ohio State enters The Game as a 12.5-point favorite in Ann Arbor. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and player to watch.
Joshua: OSU 35 TUN 14. I think OSU handles business. They’re still playing for a lot. Player of the Game is J.T. He’s gonna go out in his final edition of The Game like the most decorated QB in OSU history should.
Dan: While I do expect Michigan to play up to the stage of the rivalry game and keep this game competitive for awhile, I think the Buckeyes will ultimately pull away because I don't think the Wolverines will be able to score consistently – or even keep their defense off the field consistently – and that Ohio State will ultimately wear Michigan's defense down in the second half. I do expect the Buckeyes to win by at least two touchdowns, which means they will cover, and I'm going with a final score of 38-17. My player to watch is Nick Bosa, who I expect to have multiple tackles for loss and even more pressures in a game where there should be plenty of sack opportunities for the Buckeyes.
Kevin: Bet the rent on the Buckeyes. On paper, Michigan seem like the better bet as double-digit home underdog in a rivalry game, but I just think Ohio State is much more than 14 points better than Michigan.
I just don’t see the Wolverines scoring more than about 10 points, and I don’t see Ohio State scoring less than about 30.
I’ve got Ohio State winning 35-7 and my game MVP is J.T. Barrett, who’s going to rush for over 100 yards and throw for over 200.
DJ: Oh yeah, Ohio State will dust these bums, 42-13. Ohio State gets up early, Michigan commits an egregious turnover trying to open it up, and the Buckeyes pummel them down the stretch.
My player to watch is Parris Campbell. I’ve been hard on him throughout his career, but I think he makes a long score, either on kick return or on a catch and run, that becomes the definable memory of the game. Michigan just ain’t got that southern speed, baby.
