Ohio State has already clinched a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, giving the Buckeyes a chance to win a conference championship and – if things break their way – potentially earn a spot in the College Football Playoff if they can beat Wisconsin next week.
None of that matters this week.
Ohio State’s goal for this week can be summed up in two words, two simple words that always define the final week of the Buckeyes’ regular season: Beat Michigan.
"Rankings don’t matter. Nothing else matters. Previous records don’t matter. It’s a one-game season because it’s the most important thing in our lives, winning this game for the guys who did it before us, and we’re not focusing on anything in the future or anything in the past," said Ohio State defensive end Sam Hubbard. "We’re focused on this game and putting our all into it."
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8-3, 5-3 B1G ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, NOV. 25 MICHIGAN STADIUM ANN ARBOR, MICH. |
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FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
Michigan is not going to compete for a conference championship or a College Football Playoff berth this year. The Wolverines have lost three games this season, and are mired in their longest drought without a Big Ten title in more than 50 yards.
Once again, though, none of that matters this week.
While no one on Ohio State’s roster has ever lost to Michigan, no one on Michigan’s roster has ever beat Ohio State, and the Wolverines are focusing their full attention on trying to turn the tables.
"It’s a huge step for us, not beating them since I’ve been here and Coach Harbaugh’s been here," said Michigan fifth-year senior defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. "Securing a win against Ohio State … it would be very important for us and our season. I just really want to go out there and get this win. It means a lot to us."
On paper, No. 9-ranked Ohio State (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten) appears to have a clear advantage over unranked Michigan (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten). Simply put, the Buckeyes’ offense has been much more prolific than the Wolverines’ offense this season. The Game, however, isn’t played on paper. It’s a game in which both teams will be playing with emotion, with an intense desire to win and holding nothing back, and it’s a game that tends to be close far more often than not – even when one team appears evidently superior to the other.
“Rankings don’t matter. Nothing else matters. Previous records don’t matter. It’s a one-game season.”– Ohio State defensive end Sam Hubbard
So while Ohio State is a double-digit favorite to win Saturday’s game, the Buckeyes expect to be in for a battle in Ann Arbor.
"It’s one of those games where you’ve got to come tough and you’ve got to come prepared because no matter what the record is, both teams are going to play like it’s their last," said Ohio State defensive end Jalyn Holmes. "It’s just different."
Michigan Breakdown
In eight games this season against teams that are currently unranked, Michigan is 8-0, with seven wins by margins of 16 points or more.
In three games this season against teams that are currently ranked in the top 25, however, the Wolverines are 0-3.
The biggest reason why the Wolverines haven’t been able to beat top teams has been their offense, as they have been held to 13 points or less in each of their three losses.
While the Wolverines’ defense has been strong, ranking third nationally in yards allowed per game (261.2) and 11th nationally in points allowed per game (17.1), Michigan’s offense will need to perform much better for the Wolverines to have a chance to win on Saturday.
That’s a task that could be much easier said than done, especially with uncertainty going into Saturday’s game about who will start for the Wolverines at quarterback.
Brandon Peters, who started each of Michigan’s last three games at quarterback, suffered a head injury last week against Wisconsin. Wilton Speight, who began the year as Michigan’s starting quarterback, has been out since suffering three cracked vertebrae in his back on Sept. 23 against Purdue. Although neither quarterback has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, it appears likely that Michigan’s starter against the Buckeyes will be John O’Korn.
That could be a major problem for the Wolverines, as O’Korn – the Wolverines’ only quarterback in their first two losses of the year to Michigan State and Penn State, and the quarterback who finished last week’s game – has been their worst quarterback this year. O’Korn has completed just 53.2 percent of his passes this season, thrown only one touchdown pass (on 124 attempts) compared to five interceptions and has been susceptible to holding the ball too long in the pocket and taking sacks.
John O'Korn is likely to be Michigan's starting quarterback against Ohio State on Saturday. Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports
It hasn’t helped matters that the Wolverines haven’t had a consistent, go-to receiving threat. Tight ends Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry, who each have two touchdown receptions, could present danger for the Buckeyes, considering the struggles they have had defending tight ends at times this season. Donovan Peoples-Jones, a five-star true freshman, is a big-play threat at wide receiver. Yet while all of those players have shown flashes of playmaking ability, Grant Perry leads the Wolverines with just 298 receiving yards on 24 receptions this season.
The strength of Michigan’s offense, as outlined in this week’s Film Study by our Kyle Jones, is its running game. The Wolverines have three running backs with more than 500 rushing yards this season. Karan Higdon has led the way, rushing for 874 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Chris Evans has rushed for 594 yards and six touchdowns and Ty Isaac – who has missed the Wolverines’ last three games, but is expected to be available this week – has 548 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
In the Wolverines’ three losses, however, that running game has been stifled, being held to 103 yards or less and 2.6 yards per carry or less – with only 58 yards on 37 carries this past Saturday against Wisconsin – in each of those games.
Michigan knows its running game must perform better on Saturday for its offense to have success against the Buckeyes.
"We got to run the ball," said Michigan left tackle Mason Cole. "The games where we’ve run the ball successfully, it’s worked out well for us. So that’ll be another big key for this game is getting the run game going and also take some pressure off our protection and off our quarterback too."
On the other side of the ball, Michigan really has been among the best units in the country. With the exception of its game against Penn State, in which it allowed 42 points on 506 yards, Michigan has held all of its other opponents this season to 24 points or less and 340 yards or less.
The Wolverines have shown some vulnerability in run defense, allowing more than 180 rushing yards in each of its past two games, but have been dominant in pass defense, allowing only 144.4 passing yards per game – the least passing yards per game allowed by any defense in the country. While Penn State’s Trace McSorley threw for 282 yards against the Wolverines, no other team has even thrown for 200 yards against Michigan this year.
Michigan’s defense is led by a highly talented defensive line, which itself is led by Hurst, who might be the best interior penetrator in the country. Rashan Gary, a top-notch physical specimen who was the No. 1 overall recruit in the recruiting class of 2015, and Chase Winovich, who leads the Wolverines with 16 tackles for loss this season, give the Wolverines an excellent pair of defensive ends.
At the second level of the defense, Michigan has two linebackers who have made plays all over the field this season in Devin Bush and Khaleke Hudson. Bush, the Wolverines’ middle linebacker, leads Michigan with 89 total tackles and 10 passes defended and is one of five finalists for the Butkus Award. Hudson, a hybrid linebacker/defensive back who plays a similar role to that which Jabrill Peppers played at strongside linebacker, ranks second on the Wolverines in total tackles (66) and tackles for loss (15.5), is tied for second on the team in passes defended (eight) and is tied for the team lead in sacks (seven) and interceptions (two).
With those players leading the way up front, Michigan is tied for third in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 93 team tackles for loss, but its secondary – featuring Lavert Hill and David Long as starting cornerbacks and Tyree Kinnel and Josh Metellus as starting safeties – has also been excellent, as evidenced by the Wolverines’ No. 1 ranking against the pass.
Ohio State wide receiver Terry McLaurin believes both the front of the Wolverines’ defense and the back end have played a key role in Michigan’s dominance in pass defense this year.
"Their front guys, their interior guys are really tenacious," McLaurin said. "And they trust their guys to make plays on the outside. Their corners and their safeties, they put them on islands and trust that they can match up with any receiver in the country."
Michigan has yet to beat Ohio State since Urban Meyer became Ohio State’s coach, losing its last five games against the Buckeyes, including its first two games against the Buckeyes in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching tenure. The Wolverines aren’t favored to flip the script last year. But one thing that is for sure, especially for Michigan’s outgoing seniors, is that the Wolverines are highly motivated to try to get their first wins against the Buckeyes. That’s especially true because of the way last year’s game ended, with many Wolverines believing they were robbed of a victory by the fourth-down spot in double overtime that went in the Buckeyes’ favor.
"The way it ended last year, it just really bugged me," Winovich said. "We have to do everything we can to win this game, by all means necessary, so it’s definitely motivated us. And hypothetically, we win this game, it’s a big opportunity for redemption."
Buckeye Breakdown
While Michigan’s offense has been one-dimensional and too often ineffective this season, Ohio State has had one of the most balanced and consistently effective offenses in college football this season.
The Buckeyes rank third in the nation in points scored per game (44.9), fourth in offensive yards per game (546.2) and are the only team in the FBS that ranks in the top 18 nationally in both passing offense (293.6 yards per game) and rushing offense (252.6 yards per game).
Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has certainly had his ups and downs this season, playing much more poorly in the Buckeyes’ two losses than in their nine wins, but he has nonetheless being one of the nation’s most proficient quarterbacks, tied for second nationally in touchdowns responsible for (40) while ranking sixth in passer rating (166.3) and 17th in total offense (300.3 yards per game).
Michigan’s defenders have made it clear that they have a lot of respect for Barrett, as they should, considering that Barrett has a chance to become the first quarterback in Ohio State history to go 4-0 against Michigan as a starter.
"Any time you have a quarterback that can run, can pass, is just an explosive playmaker, it presents a challenge because there’s an extra person you have to account for," Winovich said. "He’s a great player."
J.T. Barrett has already led Ohio State to three wins against Michigan, and he'll look for one more in Ann Arbor on Saturday.
Yet while Ohio State has found success passing the ball in most of its games this season, its strength over its past two games has been its ability to run the ball, as the Buckeyes rushed for 325 yards or more in its blowout wins against Michigan State and Illinois. Redshirt sophomore running back Mike Weber has caught fire, rushing for 270 yards and four touchdowns – including three touchdowns of at least 43 yards – in his past two games. True freshman running back J.K. Dobbins, who now has 1,089 rushing yards for the season, has also remained productive, behind an offensive line that has become dominant up front.
Considering how well it has been working for the Buckeyes, and considering how stifling Michigan’s pass defense has been this season, Ohio State should look to commit to the power running game once again on Saturday.
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| OFFENSE | ||||
| 44.9 | 3rd | POINTS FOR | 26.3 | 82nd |
| 252.5 | 12th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 194.2 | 35th |
| 293.6 | 20th | PASSING OFFENSE | 166.2 | 111th |
| 546.2 | 4th | TOTAL OFFENSE | 360.4 | 102nd |
| .496 | 4th | 3rd DOWNS | .327 | 112th |
| .885 | 36th | RED ZONE | .861 | 53rd |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 19.8 | 22nd | POINTS ALLOWED | 17.1 | 11th |
| 114.0 | 12th | RUSH DEFENSE | 116.8 | 15th |
| 177.5 | 15th | PASS DEFENSE | 144.4 | 1st |
| 115.1 | 27th | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 97.4 | 4th |
| 291.5 | 8th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 261.2 | 3rd |
| .301 | 14th | 3rd DOWNS | .247 | 1st |
| .767 | 22nd | RED ZONE | .808 | 45th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 3.8 | 117th | PUNT RETURN | 7.5 | 63rd |
| 25.0 | 15th | KICKOFF RETURN | 19.5 | 99th |
| 41.6 | 11th | NET PUNTING | 36.0 | 106th |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| + 0.2 | 53rd | TURNOVER MARGIN | -0.1 | 71st |
| 7.3 | 106th | PENALTIES | 6.7 | 91st |
| 11 | EDGE | 7 | ||
"The running game, period, is primary right now," said Ohio State center Billy Price. "Whoever wins the line of scrimmage and wins the trenches tends to win the game itself. If we get the run game going and eliminate penalties and eliminate turnovers, we’re going to put ourselves in good position to win."
Hudson recognizes, however, that his defense will be tested regardless of what offensive strategy the Buckeyes choose to employ.
"Honestly, they’re just a great team all around," Hudson said. "They have a great quarterback, great receivers, great running backs, and we just have to execute and try to force turnovers and try to have their quarterback feeling uncomfortable back there. You can’t let him get into a groove, because he’ll eat you apart."
Although Michigan’s defense has been statistically superior to Ohio State’s, it hasn’t been by a wide margin, as the Buckeyes rank eighth in total defense (291.5 yards allowed per game) and 21st in scoring defense (19.8 points allowed per game).
Ohio State’s run defense actually has been statistically superior to Michigan’s, allowing only 114 yards per game (12th in the FBS) and 3.2 yards per carry (10th in the FBS). The Buckeyes have placed an emphasis on shutting down opposing running games all season, and will only emphasize that more against the Wolverines.
"The job is always to stop the run, especially when you play defensive line," said Ohio State defensive end Tyquan Lewis. "Just stop the run."
Ohio State’s passing defense, like its passing offense, has had its ups and downs, but the Buckeyes have been dominant in their last two games, holding Michigan State to 131 passing yards and Illinois to 16 passing yards while allowing zero passing touchdowns in either game.
Like Hudson’s assessment of Ohio State’s offense, Gentry expects Ohio State’s defense to challenge the Wolverines in all facets of the game.
"They’re just really athletic," Gentry said of Ohio State’s defense. "All positions, they’re athletic. They get off the ball quick and they’re flying around, they pursue really fast."
Even though the Buckeyes are entering their final game of their regular-season schedule, it still remains difficult to determine just how good the Buckeyes actually are. That’s because while they have won eight games by 28 or more points, and also earned a comeback win against a top-10-ranked Penn State team, they have also lost two games by 15 or more points, including a befuddling 55-24 loss to unranked Iowa.
That makes it believable both that the Buckeyes could dominate Michigan on Saturday or that they could be vulnerable to getting beat on Saturday. Taking this game seriously certainly won’t be a problem for the Buckeyes, however, as they will make a considerable effort – as they do every year – to make their game against their rivals their best game of the season to date.
"I think this game, everybody goes a little extra mile, understanding who we’re going against," Barrett said. "(You have to) win this game at all costs, so with that, everybody puts a little bit more effort into this one knowing that this is why we do extra sets during the offseason, we do extra running during conditioning, it’s for this game right here. So with that, just do a little extra, because that’s The Team Up North."
How It Plays Out
Given the history of the rivalry and the talent that both teams have, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if Saturday’s game ends up being a close game that comes down to the wire.
| Year | Location | Result |
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| 2016 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 30, Michigan 27 |
| 2015 | Ann Arbor, Mich. | Ohio State 42, Michigan 13 |
| 2014 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 42, Michigan 28 |
| 2013 | Ann Arbor, Mich. | Ohio State 42, Michigan 41 |
| 2012 | Columbus, Ohio | Ohio State 26, Michigan 21 |
While Ohio State was a 12-point favorite as of Friday morning, according to Vegas Insider, Michigan’s defense is more than capable of making it difficult for Ohio State to score, and the Wolverines – who are not in line to play in a marquee bowl game – will certainly throw everything they have at the Buckeyes in hopes of scoring the upset. The fact that this year’s game is being played in the Big House only makes it more dangerous for Ohio State.
"I expect them to bring their best," Lewis said. "I expect it to be a hard game because it is the biggest rivalry in all of sport and we both have a lot of respect for each other. Definitely going to have to expect their best."
Ultimately, though, Michigan’s chances of winning Saturday’s game rest in whether the Wolverines can do what Iowa did – expose flaws in Ohio State’s defense – and perform at a substantially higher level offensively than they have against other top opponents this season.
Michigan’s offense has struggled to move the ball and score points against top competition, and Ohio State’s defense will one of the best the Wolverines have faced this year. And if the Wolverines are unable to keep their defense off the field, which seems like a distinct possibility if O’Korn is their best healthy quarterback, Ohio State’s offense should ultimately be able to wear Michigan’s defense out and put up enough points to win The Game for a sixth year in a row.
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 34, Michigan 17
