Kyle Snyder is a man on a mission: "I want to beat them worse than I’ve wanted to beat any team since I’ve been at Ohio State." The pound-for-pound best wrestler on the planet, fresh off his second win at the Yarygin Grand Prix in Russia, has his sights set on the reigning dynasty of NCAA Wrestling.
The Buckeyes roll into Happy Valley Saturday night for a primetime showdown Saturday, televised live at 8 p.m. on the Big Ten Network. Penn State rides a 42-dual meet winning streak, and won six of the past seven national championships (Ohio State won the school's first in 2015).
The Nittany Lions are the dominant force in the sport, and they have history with the Buckeyes.
In 2017, Penn State beat the Buckeyes in front of 15,000 fans at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus. The Buckeyes repaid the kindness by upsetting the Nittany Lions for the Big Ten championship less than six weeks later.
Penn State proceeded to win the NCAA tournament by 36.5 points as 50% of their lineup won individual titles. It wasn't just a victory, it was a conquest of epic proportions.
To find out how the 2018 squad compares to the version that lapped Ohio State last year in St. Louis, Eleven Warriors sat down with Roar Lions Roar reporter Rob Dougherty, who covers the Penn State wrestling program. You can read my answers to Rob's questions at RLR here.
Q: Penn State is “the Alabama of college wrestling,” with six of the past seven national titles. How has Cael Sanderson created this unstoppable juggernaut, and how does this year’s team compare to his past title winners?
Rob: I think a lot of what has set Penn State apart is finding guys who aren't comfortable with just winning, but dominating. Every recruit on their roster is looking to keep scoring at all times. This is common in freshmen as well, and you will see that with Nick Lee.
He has a relentlessness that will seem quite familiar. Lee didn't just beat Tommy Thorn last weekend, he decimated him and had his shoulders flat. This is a freshman coming into Big Ten competition unafraid of anyone and he is not afraid to put himself in vulnerable positions to score. That is the Penn State mantra, don't stop when vulnerable, fight through it.
This Penn State team is as good as it has been under Cael Sanderson. Last year's team is probably the most notable of Cael Sanderson's tenure given they had five national champions, though the 2012 team ran them pretty close. It's also important to note that last year's team had Nick Suriano, who legitimately could have been a sixth finalist and/or national champion.
If he was still on this team, then I do not think the drama between who wins in Cleveland would even exist. Oh well, it's not like I'm salty at all about this or anything.
Q: It’s clear what Penn State’s goals are each season: national title or bust. How is this lineup performing relative to sky-high preseason expectations?
Rob: I think the lineup has performed relatively close to the preseason expectations to this point. Sure, there have been some matches to this point that have been closer than I think some would like. However, I think the team is really just trying to get healthy for the stretch run.
There is no reason to think this team is much worse off if Jason Nolf is healthy and able to be close to the Nolf we know him to be. Heck, this team could be even better than last year's team that lit up the NCAA Tournament with Nick Lee and Shakur Rasheed's bonus point potential.
Q: Ohio State has focused more on bonus points this season because Penn State just pins fools right and left, especially in tournaments. What is it about the Nittany Lion program that produces such prodigious pinners (4 of the Top 10 in the nation, currently)?
Rob: Well, in part it is about finding the right guys, but another part of it is keeping an open mind and using the right technique to flatten opponents. You'll see plenty of wrestlers around the country who look for back points but don't actually look for the fall. Penn State wrestlers embrace looking for falls and part of it has become a game where they each look to raise the bar. It's a bragging right at Penn State to get the fastest fall of a dual.
Q: Clearly the biggest story of the week is the shocking injury to Jason Nolf. What is the latest on his injury and the likelihood of his return for the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments?
Rob: The latest report on Jason Nolf's injury is that he won't need surgery, and he will be able to compete in the postseason. Obviously, it's tough to determine how effective he will be if he isn't at his best, but he's a tremendous athlete and competitor. I am confident that he will continue to do Jason Nolf things, but it may impact his bonus point output.
Q: That injury came during a pretty contentious dual. Give us a quick download on the animosity between Penn State and Rutgers during and after that meet - was the move that injured Nolf a “dirty” move, or just “one of those things” that happens, unfortunately?
Rob: There is a lot of animosity between the Penn State and Rutgers programs right now. It's difficult to pinpoint when this all started, but certainly Nick Suriano's controversial transfer and granted waiver for this season has certainly increased the tension between the two.
The dual had an air about it that was different from others, and I think Penn State took a lot of exception to the way Rutgers wrestled the dual.
Scott Delvecchio unnecessarily shoved Keener to the mat after time expired when Delvecchio scored the match clinching takedown, Eleazer Deluca was nearly disqualified for repeated face strikes to Zain Retherford, Nicholas Gravina headbutted and face struck Bo Nickal too, and not to mention the injury to Jason.
In my opinion, I think the injury to Jason is one that happens in wrestling. I do not believe that John Van Brill tried to injure Jason, but that a more alert referee would have prevented the injury with a stalemate or potentially dangerous call given the angel Nolf's knee was at.
Penn State was uncharacteristically docked a team point because they were angry at the referee for not stopping it.
Q: Penn State, including Nolf, returns an obscene number of defending national champions. Who among them is least likely to repeat, and why? Conversely, has Zain Retherford already sewn up back-to-back Hodge Trophies?
Rob: I think most people would expect me to write Vincenzo Joseph here because of Isaiah Martinez. I believe that Isaiah and Vincenzo have separated themselves as the two best at 165, and Vincenzo has been so good this season already that I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
So, I'm going to go with Mark Hall, and that's not down to his ability, but it's down to the road he will likely have to take to win another title. Bo Jordan and Zahid Valencia are both huge roadblocks that will make it incredibly difficult to win a national title.
Zahid has quite simply looked awesome this season, and Jordan is still Jordan. Hall is capable of repeating and making me look very silly, but he just has not seemed to be quite himself this year despite being undefeated. Maybe he will turn it on when the lights come on.
Despite Hodge voting being a bit of a crapshoot sometimes, I think Zain should be the runaway favorite. There's simply no one who shows up and dominates every single match in the way that he does.
Q: Ohio State’s heavy hitters are at each end of the lineup, and Penn State’s are right in the middle… what is the likelihood of each team winning five matches in this meet?
Rob: With the injury to Jason Nolf, I would put the chances of both teams splitting 5 matches to be quite high. I don't really see a way Penn State wins at 125, 133, 157 or 285. Then, Ohio State is favored at 197, with chances to win at 141 and 184, but I could see 141 and 184 going chalk. So I think the chances of a split are high.
Q: What match are you most excited about, and why?
Rob: Bo Nickal vs. Myles Martin - These guys are probably going to wrestle two more times over the last month of the season and this is probably the best rivalry in college wrestling. Bo holds the edge 4-2 but these matches have become must see since March 2016. Myles' scrambling ability and athleticism make a tough matchup for someone with Bo's creativity and approach.
The thing is Bo is so resolute and aware that he's always dangerous, and Myles knows that all too well. If the NCAA are lucky, maybe this match will decide the team title race in March.
Q: Prediction: How does it play out?
Rob: With Jason Nolf healthy, I think a Penn State win would have been far more likely. However, the Nolf injury makes me think the Buckeyes have the best chance anyone has had to end Penn State's 42 dual win streak.
I'm going Ohio State 20, Penn State 18 because I think Nathan Tomasello and Kyle Snyder will account for 10+ points. I think Ohio State wins at 133, 157, and 197. That leaves Penn State in a tough spot. With Jason Nolf I think Penn State wins a tight one, without him I think it becomes much more difficult and I'll give the Buckeyes the edge to beat Penn State's streak.
Q: Bonus Prediction/Crystal Ball: Can Ohio State win its second national title versus this team, and if so, how does it go down? Flip that question, give me your reasons why one of the most talented lineups in history won’t beat Penn State come March.
Rob: Ohio State is probably Penn State's greatest challenger of the Cael Sanderson era, and they certainly have a realistic chance to win their second national title. The injury to Jason Nolf certainly throws a wrench into Penn State's title hopes if he is not 100%.
I think the way Ohio State wins the title is quite simply getting Kyle Snyder, Kollin Moore and Nathan Tomasello to finish first, and getting the better of Penn State at 174 and 184.
I think they will likely need Luke Pletcher to go on a deep run, and they will need to get something significant from 141, 149 and 157. 165 will probably not produce many points for the Buckeyes.
The key for the Buckeyes is outperforming Penn State at the closest weights between the two (174 and 184) because the bonus point differential will matter at the other weights. Those placement points can be a real equalizer for the Buckeyes.
I want to add that the "most talented lineup in history" is probably closer to the one who returned five national champions, and not this current Ohio State team. Maybe the Buckeyes inherited that slogan from the 2016-17 Oklahoma State Cowboys that were supposed to get 15 All-Americans I think.
However, Penn State has a pretty simple formula that has worked wonders for them in the past. They'll outscore everyone else in bonus points, and they'll have a number of guys who compete on Saturday night. In last year's NCAA Tournament, Jason Nolf and Zain Retherford accounted for 50 points themselves, Ohio State scored 110 total.
I will run a more a comprehensive preview between both of these teams before the NCAA Tournament, but I think a realistic outcome for this Penn State team is around 130-135 points.
That number can shoot up to 150+ or so depending on how many finalists they get or a run at the middle weights similar to last year. I do not believe that Ohio State can breach the 130-135 threshold in the kind of capacity Penn State can.
I honestly would not be surprised if Ohio State does not get an All-American at 141 or 149, and I am not certain that Micah is going to make a deep run at 157.
Nick Lee has started separating himself from Joey McKenna and Shakur Rasheed has been making up ground on Kollin Moore as well. I think Penn State is likely to have eight All-Americans, a number that I think is the most Ohio State can expect.
I think at least one of Joey McKenna, Ke-shawn Hayes and Micah Jordan will not be All-Americans, and neither will Te'shan Campbell. So really, the gap is determined by how many finalists each gets, how many bonus points each score, and how many can finish the job and win the individual titles.
To me, Penn State is the more likely winner with a healthy Jason Nolf, but really we will not know how healthy Nolf is until the Big Ten Tournament.
However, for this exercise I am assuming a healthy Nolf, and I think Penn State is more than likely leaving Cleveland with a seventh national title in eight years with a healthy Nolf.
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