Welcome to the Skull Session.
How about a marquee non-conference matchup for Ohio State and West Virginia men's basketball during football's bowl week? That sounds fun.
Schedule Update
— Ohio State Hoops (@OhioStateHoops) April 19, 2023
Ohio State and West Virginia will play a neutral site game this upcoming season as the teams will meet in Cleveland on Saturday, Dec. 30. The game time and venue will be announced at a later date.
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Let's have a good Thursday, shall we?
OHIO STATE IS THREE-STAR U. In a recent article, The Athletic's Ari Wasserman, David Ubben and Mitch Light analyzed Ohio State and several other college football programs nationwide to assess how well each Power Five school has developed five-star, four-star and three-star prospects into NFL talent the past 15 years.
TEAM | 3-STARS SIGNED | 3-STARS DRAFTED | % DRAFTED |
---|---|---|---|
Ohio State | 68 | 14 | 20.6% |
LSU | 103 | 21 | 20.4% |
ALABAMA | 65 | 13 | 20.0% |
FLORIDA | 113 | 21 | 18.6% |
OKLAHOMA | 135 | 25 | 18.5% |
ARKANSAS | 106 | 17 | 16.0% |
PENN STATE | 122 | 19 | 15.6% |
FLORIDA STATE | 107 | 16 | 15.0% |
STANFORD | 124 | 18 | 14.5% |
WISCONSIN | 186 | 27 | 14.5% |
To no one's surprise, Ohio State was featured heavily in the article. The Buckeyes develop five-stars at a rate comparable to Alabama and Georgia and four-stars at a rate similar to Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Notre Dame. But when it comes to developing three-stars, Ohio State – while similar to the schools mentioned above – reigns supreme.
Why? I don't know. That seems like the kind of title a smaller Power Five school would own, not one of the sport's most well-renowned programs that consistently finishes in the top 10 of the 247Sports composite rankings year in and year out. Ohio State is built different, I guess.
Here is what Wasserman, Ubben and Light wrote about the Buckeyes:
Ohio State wins the title of “Three-Star U” — which may seem odd given the Buckeyes routinely recruit classes loaded with top-100 players.
Without looking at the data, you might have guessed that the programs that are most successful in developing three-star prospects into NFL Draft picks are the ones who win the most with the least. You might have thought a team like Northwestern, Iowa or Iowa State would have been Three-Star U just based on the fact that those teams always seem to be good despite not recruiting at a high level. Let this be a reminder that development from the big-time programs isn’t simply reserved for five-star prospects. Schools with the most resources also seem to be the most apt to make something out of nothing. If you’re a three-star prospect, you still have a higher chance of being drafted at a place like Ohio State than you would at a program that’s known as a lovable overachiever.
The writers admitted the data needs context. Ohio State has signed far fewer three-star prospects than some other programs featured on the list. Still, it's hard to deny that the Buckeyes aren't the best of the best when it comes to identifying underrated talent and developing those athletes into the kinds of athletes NFL teams love.
Don't believe me? Let me rattle off a few three stars Ohio State #DevelopedHere and turned into NFL talent: Michael Thomas, Devin Smith, Malik Hooker, Pat Elflein, Bradley Roby, Cardale Jones, Jeff Heuerman, Malik Harrison, Chris Olave. And that's just the 2010s. Three-stars before that time include Zach Boren, Brian Hartline, Brian Robiskie, Dane Sanzenbacher, John Simon and Malcolm Jenkins.
Recognize any of those names? As a reader of an Ohio State website, I know you do. The Buckeyes have succeeded in developing three stars and turning them into next-level talent for a long time. And while the recruiting standards have certainly changed in Columbus in recent years, I don't expect that success to change anytime soon.
Wait – I think I left a notable three-star prospect off the list. Oh, that's because I am writing about him in the next section. Carry on.
WHEN THE ANIMAL'S SON LEAVES. Pete Sampson writes about Notre Dame sports for The Athletic and has covered the South Bend, Indiana, school for over 20 years. That makes him the resident expert on the Irish, especially the football program.
This week, Sampson released a mailbag article that featured questions from his readers. One asked, "How big of a loss was James Laurinaitis going back to Ohio State?" The reader then noted Laurinaitis' role in Ohio State landing four-star linebacker Payton Pierce, who was previously interested in Notre Dame, and the momentum the Buckeyes have with five-star Sammy Brown, the No. 5 overall player in the class of 2024.
Here is how Sampson responded:
It’s an interesting question, and to be honest, I don’t know how to measure the impact of a graduate assistant/intern/analyst. Yes, Laurinaitis was popular with players and recruits. But grading his coaching acumen is harder than his recruiting impact, which was significant.
...
In terms of the “loss” of Laurinaitis, the biggest impact might be one of coach Marcus Freeman’s closest friends leaving. It’s good to have people you can completely trust as a head coach, especially a first-year head coach. It’s not that Freeman can’t get that feedback elsewhere, it’s just that Laurinaitis was perfect at giving it.
Notre Dame will recruit linebackers just fine with or without Laurinaitis. Missing on Pierce doesn’t change that. But there’s no doubt Laurinaitis was a value add to Notre Dame’s program. An Irish loss is a Buckeyes gain.
Here is my focus from that response. "Notre Dame will recruit linebackers just fine with or without Laurinaitis. Missing on Pierce doesn't change that."
... yet.
In his first few months as a graduate assistant, Laurinaitis was integral in Ohio State landing Pierce. He will look to play the same role as the Buckeyes work to bring Brown to Columbus. If he does – or if he helps Ryan Day and Jim Knowles land another top linebacker recruit, for that matter – then Sampson may need to reassess his claim that Notre Dame will be "just fine" as the Irish continue to learn what life is like after the Animal's son has left town.
Laurinaitis at Notre Dame created ripples in the water, but Laurinaitis at Ohio State can potentially create a tidal wave. There is something to be said about the three-time All-American walking down the Woody Hayes Athletic Center hallways, pointing to the awards and trophies he won as a Buckeye and explaining how he received them as a former three-star from Wayzata High School in Plymouth, Minnesota. He can probably point to his Rams and Saints uniforms, too.
"I can show you how to get there," he can tell them.
That's a powerful tool – one Notre Dame will miss and Ohio State will cherish.
The Animal's Son is a recruiting Road Warrior. That will be quite a show to see for years to come, and the Buckeyes will benefit tremendously.
HOW THE BUCKS STACK UP. We've talked a lot about recruiting in this Skull Session, but I think that's all good. After all, as Pete Carroll once said, recruiting is the lifeblood of a program. If Ohio State didn't recruit well, I wouldn't have the chance to write the section I will share now. For that reason, I hope they keep knocking it out of the park.
On Wednesday, former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy and former Auburn offensive lineman Cole Cubelic compared Ohio State and Alabama's 2023 roster on an episode of McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, a radio show based out of Birmingham, Alabama.
Below is a transcript of their conversation:
4-19-23 McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning Hour 3: @AlabamaFTBL vs @OhioStateFB roster comparison position by position, @BrookeFletcher on Buckeyes spring game https://t.co/2bAnNRmpzg
— McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning (@macandcube) April 19, 2023
Cubelic: Let's compare Alabama with the Ohio State roster. Wide receiver (at Ohio State), the best room in the nation? Yes. Marvin Harrison Jr. is back. Emeka Egbuka is back. Julian Fleming is back. I don't think it's close. The depth is ridiculous. The style receivers are ridiculous. It's completely next level. Offensive line, I would lean Alabama. (Ohio State) does not have regular players back in this group, and the ones that are back are still concerning. You and I talked about Josh Fryar during the break. He was getting smoked in the spring game.
McElroy: I may be more worried about center than tackle at Ohio State and tackle is a problem. When (Luke) Wypler declared early, it caught all of them by surprise. They were totally unprepared for him to leave early. Luke enters, and the next thing you know you have a huge void in the middle of the offensive line.
Cubelic: Tight end, I think the depth belongs to Alabama, but you know how I feel about Cade Stover. The dude is the real deal. He's big-time. I am a big fan. Gee Scott has done some good things, too. I think he's fine.
McElroy: Assuming (Amari) Niblack is who we think he is, which is an assumption, as it's one thing to have potential and another to have production... I would say it's a bit of a toss up but assuming the leap that we keep hearing about with Niblack, I would lean Alabama.
Cubelic: Running back, we know what Miyan Williams is and what TreVeyon Henderson can be when he is healthy. I have not seen TreVeyon healthy a whole lot recently. But if they're all there, and they're all available. It's probably Ohio State.
McElroy: I'll take Ohio State. Don't forget about Chip Trayanum, a player without a position for the last three years. He goes out in the spring game – and, I know, it's the spring game – but this dude had a little bit of work last year and looks pretty dang salty now that he's settled down in one spot.
...
McElroy: The front seven, I don't know if they're gonna be as good on the interior, but Ohio State will be fine on the edges with JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. I love Sawyer.
Cubelic: They have both flashed at times and been really good. I am with you. I don't know if the interior guys are all that just yet. I don't know. Linebacker, I will lean Alabama. Where are you on the Ohio State secondary? Is it troublesome or just not elite?
McElroy: I wouldn't say it's troublesome. I would just say it's not what it has been. With Ohio State and Alabama, we compare them to past years. Ohio State in years past is better (at those spots) than they are now. I think it's a toss-up since both teams have question marks compared to where they've been in the past.
To summarize, McElroy and Cubelic, two people with deep backgrounds in SEC football, have Ohio State as better than Alabama at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and possibly tight end (depending on Niblack's development in his second season), while they offer a considerable edge to the Tide on the offensive line.
I think all of that checks.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio State has a slight edge on the defensive line, thanks to JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. However, both remain uncertain about the contributions of Mike Hall Jr., Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams as the 2023 season approaches. Maybe they forgot Hall's dominance when healthy last season? I'll have to assume that's the case.
As for the linebackers, McElroy and Cubelic didn't even discuss All-American Tommy Eichenberg, Steele Chambers, Cody Simon and C.J. Hicks, favoring Alabama's Jihaad Campbell, Deontae Lawson, Justin Jefferson and others, which is... interesting. They called the secondary a "toss-up," which is probably fair until Ohio State's secondary can prove its ability to limit the explosive plays in 2023.
Also, an important reminder: The transfer portal is open until April 30, which means both programs could add players or lose players at any position over the next 10 days.
While Ryan Day has not explicitly stated Ohio State will look for talent in the portal in the post-spring window, the assumption from the top down at a place like Ohio State is that the Buckeyes will have the best 22 (or more) players on offense and defense, and the best special teams units in America. If that means Ohio State needs to hit the portal, Ohio State will hit the portal.
Still, as of now, Ohio State is the better overall team than Alabama heading into 2023, according to McElroy and Cubelic. Love it. Hate it. Call it rat poison – whatever – Ohio State will have 12 chances to prove that fact this fall in the regular season as it looks to return to the top of the Big Ten, make the College Football Playoff and win a national title.
"ALL THE POTENTIAL IN THE WORLD." The NFL draft is in one week, so it's time to prepare ourselves for seven days of content surrounding the event, specifically how it pertains to the Buckeyes.
That starts today with an excellent breakdown of a few reps from Paris Johnson Jr. in Ohio State's College Football Playoff matchup with Georgia, where the 6-foot-6, 313-pound left tackle had one of his best performances in the scarlet and gray against one of the best defenses in the nation.
.@OhioStateFB @ParisJohnsonJr a few plays from the CFB playoffs highlighting his skills. All the potential in the world to be as good as he wants. #nfldraft #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/BgqFXrRbdr
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) April 19, 2023
"All the potential in the world." Yeah, that sounds like Paris Johnson Jr.
Whoever drafts the Cincinnati native next week will be a lucky franchise. Johnson has all the tools necessary to be a franchise left tackle in the league and a cornerstone player for an organization. Seeing the kind of person Johnson strives to be off the field, I sincerely hope it works out that way for the Ohio State product.
SONG OF THE DAY. "Knockin' On Heaven's Door" by Bob Dylan.
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