Welcome to the Skull Session.
Xavier Johnson shared his story on Wednesday. It's a good one.
Ohio State University Football Team Block O Recipient Xavier Johnson. pic.twitter.com/2jaohDsX7c
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) August 23, 2023
Let's have a good Thursday, shall we?
"HE'S IN JEOPARDY EVERY YEAR." Legendary Ohio State running back Archie Griffin is college football's only two-time Heisman Trophy winner. But with last season's Heisman winner Caleb Williams back for another season at quarterback for USC, former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer believes Griffin could have some company in his exclusive club after 2023.
From "Urban's Take" with Tim May for On3:
"Archie is a great friend of mine. I think he's in jeopardy every year. Heisman Trophy winners, there are no seniors anymore – seniors don't win the Heisman, seniors are gone. There are no seniors in college football. (The best players) leave early for the draft. I had a sophomore win in Tim Tebow. Johnny Manziel won it as a (redshirt) freshman. This guy (Williams) is really good, so yes, he is in jeopardy of losing his title as the only two-time winner."
The adage, "Records are meant to be broken," reminds us that no matter how great an achievement, someone will eventually meet or surpass it. However, Griffin's record as the only player in college football history to win two Heismans is one I hope never breaks because Griffin deserves it – for all that he was on the football field and continues to be off of it.
As it stands with most sportsbooks, Williams is the favorite to win the Heisman in 2023 following a season in which he completed 66.6% of his passes for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns and added 382 yards and 10 more scores as a runner. His top competition includes four quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels (LSU), Quinn Ewers (Texas), Jordan Travis (FSU) and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington).
| PLAYER | FANDUEL | BETMGM | CAESARS | POINTSBET | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Caleb Williams, USC | +500 | +500 | +500 | +500 | +450 |
| QB Jayden Daniels, LSU | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1000 | +1100 |
| QB Quinn Ewers, Texas | +1200 | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 | +1300 |
| QB Jordan Travis, FSU | +1200 | +1600 | +1600 | +1400 | +1400 |
| QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington | +1600 | +1200 | +1800 | +1400 | +1400 |
FWIW, Marvin Harrison Jr. has the 12th-best odds to win the Heisman, as his lines range from +1800 on Caesars to +3000 on FanDuel. Despite Ohio State's continued quarterback competition, Kyle McCord has the 13th-best odds, and Devin Brown has the 17th-best. TreVeyon Henderson has lines featured in several sportsbooks and has the 24th-best odds among all players.
COMPUTERS LOVE THE BUCKEYES. Last week, Bill Connelly released ESPN's final SP+ numbers of the preseason, with Ohio State ranked second behind Georgia in a poll of all 133 FBS schools. On Wednesday, The Athletic's Austin Mock – the creator of "stop rate" – revealed his formula-based model to organize teams, and like the computers at the Worldwide Leader love the Buckeyes, so do the computers at The Athletic.
Here is how the model works:
I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the selection process of the committee in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” which is derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season.
Here are the top-10 teams with the best chances to reach the CFP and win a title in 2023:
| TEAM | MAKE CFP | WIN TITLE |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 68.4% | 28.2% |
| Alabama | 53.0% | 15.5% |
| Ohio State | 49.6% | 13.9% |
| Michigan | 46.6% | 12.8% |
| Penn State | 19.7% | 4.0% |
| USC | 21.4% | 3.7% |
| Clemson | 23.8% | 3.7% |
| Washington | 21.1% | 3.4% |
| Texas | 16.2% | 3.0% |
| Florida State | 16.3% | 2.6% |
Mock also included 15 more schools that could make the playoff and win a national championship based on his calculations: Tennessee, Oregon, LSU, Utah, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Oregon State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Missouri, Tulane, Louisville, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and TCU.
He then featured breakdowns of why the top-10 teams will or will not win the national championship in 2023. On the Buckeyes, Mock wrote:
OHIO STATE
WHY THEY WILL WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Ohio State and Ryan Day continue their streak of elite quarterback play and elite offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes have had a first-round quarterback in just about every game since the 2017 season. While the quarterback competition will leak into the season, both Kyle McCord and Devin Brown are top-50 recruits. Oh, and they have Marvin Harrison Jr. who is one of the best wide receiver prospects in the last decade.
WHY THEY WON'T WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Even before this run of first-round quarterbacks in Columbus, the Buckeyes were fortunate to watch J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller and Terrelle Pryor win a lot of games. While Miller’s first year at quarterback is the only season since 2004 that they haven’t won double-digit games, the run has been pretty special to say the least. The run, though, could come to an end this year if neither quarterback is able to assert himself. Losses on the offensive line don’t do them any favors. We’ve seen this Ohio State defense struggle at times over the past few years, if they don’t have the security blanket of an elite offense, what happens?
Quarterback. Offensive line. Defensive secondary.
If Ohio State receives consistent production from all three of those spots, the Buckeyes will have as good a chance as any team to reach the College Football Playoff and win a national championship. If they don't receive that consistent production, we could be in for another heartbreaking season in Columbus.
"HE'S SPECIAL." Many moons ago, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers hinted that Garrett Wilson could be the next Davante Adams, who was Rodgers' teammate in Green Bay before Adams inked a five-year, $140 million contract with the Los Angeles Raiders before the 2022 season.
Aaron Rodgers compared Garrett Wilson to Davante Adams today
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) May 2, 2023
"He's a talented guy. I threw him a pass today and kind of turned and was like, 'Wow.'"
@PatMcAfeeShowpic.twitter.com/4sH4ma5FFC
In the most recent episode of HBO's "Hard Knocks," Rodgers did not explicitly compare the former Ohio State wide receiver to Adams. But he did call Wilson "special" twice and shower the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year with praise.
Nothing to see here
— Colin McTamany (@Colin_McT) August 23, 2023
Just #Jets QB Aaron Rodgers referring to WR Garrett Wilson as special twice in 30 seconds last night on Hard Knocks
A LOT of 8 17 in 2023 pic.twitter.com/Ch5qFeQHMU
"He's special. He's so f––– quick. I'm, like, missing the wrong shoulder. He gets out of his breaks so quick," Rodgers said. "He's special. The best part is, he's a good dude."
Wilson collected 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie season with the Jets. He recorded those statistics with the combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White as his three quarterbacks.
With Rodgers, a Super Bowl champion, four-time MVP and future Pro Football Hall of Famer, Wilson's box scores have the chance to be much-improved in 2023. With videos like these that come out of preseason camp, that starts to feel like a likelihood, and sooner or later, it will feel like a certainty.
Aaron Rodgers Garrett Wilson
— PFF (@PFF) August 16, 2023
This duo is going to be elite
( @TalkJetsRadio)
pic.twitter.com/FekxuQJb19
Aaron Rodgers play action deep to Garrett Wilson #Jets | @JetsTalk247
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) August 23, 2023
pic.twitter.com/XkfYWtGhxY
Wilson is special – special indeed.
WELL, THAT'S SOMETHING. The internet is home to some of the weirdest content imaginable. From TikTok to YouTube influencers and much more, one can find themselves in the deepest rabbit holes as one mindlessly scrolls For You pages and timelines. That was particularly true for me on Wednesday when I came across a video that previewed the 2016 Ohio State-Michigan matchup.
The 2016 edition of The Game was legendary. The No. 2 Buckeyes defeated the No. 3 Wolverines, 30-27, in double overtime because of a fourth-down conversion from J.T. Barrett (the spot was oh-so-good) and a 15-yard touchdown run from Curtis Samuel.
Reminder: The spot was good. pic.twitter.com/ZbnRZXvFVq
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 25, 2022
But before those events took place, there was this video.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) August 16, 2023
A Michigan and Ohio State player repeatedly kicking each other in the nuts, ESPN College GameDay commentator Lee Corso using an oxygen mask, a dancing panda holding a sign that reads "URBAN PAYS FOR GRINDR" (How did it know?!) – and it only gets more bizarre after that.
I'm not sure who created the video or where it came from. Once I saw it, however, I knew I would have to share it with you, dear reader.
I hope you liked it.
SONG OF THE DAY. "Danger Zone" by Kenny Loggins (Top Gun is stuck in my head).
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