Welcome to the Skull Session.
'Twas a great day to be a Buckeye. 'Twas a great day indeed.
Twas a great day to be a Buckeye
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 4, 2024
pic.twitter.com/jpzx93GZuG
Have a good Wednesday.
THE COMPUTERS! It's Wednesday. You know what that means. It's time to examine Ohio State's place in the SP+ and College Football Power Index, as well as how ESPN Analytics views the Buckeyes' chances to win the rest of their regular-season games in 2024.
SP+
| RANK | TEAM | SP SCORE | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | SPECIAL TEAMS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OHIO STATE | 29.0 | 38.4 (8) | 9.7 (1) | 0.3 (25) |
| 2 | TEXAS | 28.7 | 40.9 (7) | 12.0 (4) | -0.3 (108) |
| 3 | GEORGIA | 28.5 | 41.1 (6) | 13.0 (6) | 0.4 (3) |
| 4 | OLE MISS | 28.3 | 41.2 (5) | 13.3 (7) | 0.4 (2) |
| 5 | OREGON | 27.8 | 43.7 (2) | 16.2 (12) | 0.3 (26) |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the SP+: Purdue (102), Northwestern (79), Indiana (11), Michigan (30)
College Football Power Index
| RANK | TEAM | FPI | WIN OUT | WIN CONF | MAKE CFP | WIN CFP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEXAS | 26.0 | 30.7% | 34.7% | 78.7% | 15.6% |
| 2 | OHIO STATE | 25.9 | 29.9% | 43.2% | 91.3% | 17.3% |
| 3 | ALABAMA | 25.3 | 45.1% | 14.3% | 55.0% | 9.1% |
| 4 | GEORGIA | 23.1 | 13.2% | 23.1% | 92.6% | 11.5% |
| 5 | NOTRE DAME | 22.1 | 49.2% | N/A | 58.0% | 4.9% |
Ohio State's remaining 2024 opponents in the College Football Power Index: Purdue (111), Northwestern (78), Indiana (10), Michigan (46)
ESPN Analytics
| OPPONENT | DATE | LOCATION | MATCHUP PREDICTOR % |
|---|---|---|---|
| PURDUE | NOV. 9 | COLUMBUS, OH | 99% OHIO STATE |
| NORTHWESTERN | NOV. 16 | CHICAGO, IL * | 95.2% OHIO STATE |
| NO. 13 INDIANA | NOV. 23 | COLUMBUS, OH | 70.3% OHIO STATE |
| MICHIGAN | NOV. 30 | COLUMBUS, OH | 93.5% OHIO STATE |
| * AT WRIGLEY FIELD | |||
As Garrick Hodge broke down in an article on Tuesday, the Buckeyes appeared at No. 2 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2024. While the committee sees Ohio State as the second-best team in America, it would be the No. 5 seed in the 12-team playoff because Oregon checked in at No. 1 in the poll. If the Buckeyes want to appear in the top four when the playoffs start, they'll need to beat the Ducks at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. That shouldn't be too hard, right? ,.. right?
"HE'S A WINNER." Will Howard didn’t have his best performance on Saturday. In addition to a pick-six and fumble-turned-touchback, the veteran quarterback had a season-low in passing yards (182) and his lowest completion rate (66.7 percent) since the season opener (60.7 percent).
In his press conference on Tuesday, Ryan Day said Howard needs to take care of the football and make better decisions for Ohio State to have success over the next four to five weeks.
“It can’t happen. It can’t happen. We have to take care of the football,” Day said. “(On the interception), he got fooled in terms of what he saw. Sometimes it’s like that. That will happen. But we can’t fumble the ball inside the 10-yard line. We just can’t do it. Like he said (after the game), we were fortunate because of the play of so many others down the stretch, but it turned into a four-quarter game because of that. When we take care of the ball better, it doesn’t have to be that way. He knows that. We will keep hammering that home this week with a huge emphasis on execution and taking care of the football.”
If Howard can limit turnovers down the stretch, the sixth-year head coach believes Ohio State can beat Michigan, win a Big Ten championship and win a national title this season. Day made that belief explicit on Tuesday.
“We know how capable he is in a lot of different areas. He is the leader of this team. The guys believe in him. We know we can win every game with Will Howard. I think the more and more he’s in this offense — the more and more he feels what it’s like to be the Ohio State quarterback, the better,” Day said. “But at the end of the day, it’s about winning the game. He did that. He’s a winner. A lot to come out of the game — a lot to learn from. We have to play cleaner. We love his fire. We love his competitiveness. We love his composure. The guys believe in him.”
Will Howard pic.twitter.com/xvxaiZU6h3
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 5, 2024
Unaware of the comment his coach made earlier, Howard also made clear the confidence he has in himself and his teammates to win Gold Pants and trophies this season.
“I’m very confident. At this point in the season, if I were to sit here and say I wasn’t confident, I feel like that would be a pretty big problem,” Howard said, creating an eruption of laughter in the press room. “I’m very confident because I trust in my training. I trust in the Lord and His plan for me. I trust in my teammates. Whatever God’s will is will happen.
“But I will go out there and give it my all. I know that I have what it takes to get it done. … I came here for one reason, and that’s to win a national championship. That’s still ahead of us. I’m thrilled about this win (over Penn State). At this point, we’re past it. It’s just a stepping stone — it’s what we needed to do to stay on the trajectory to get to where we want to get.
“But I believe in myself and my abilities because I have the best supporting cast in the country. I try to stay humble and believe that I have to keep working and getting better. I think that’s encouraging, too. I feel like I’ve played pretty good football this year, but I also haven’t played my best. I think that’s still out in front of me.”
If Howard’s best is indeed still in front of him… look out college football.
GOOD GUY WILL HOWARD. When Howard took the podium on Tuesday, he didn’t answer questions immediately. Instead, he had a message about his attire, which featured a white sweatshirt with a scarlet script Ohio across the chest.
“The sweatshirt I’m wearing, I got it signed by a couple of cancer patients the other night,” Howard said. “I went out to their fashion show night briefly after practice last Wednesday and got to spend some time with some of those kids. I just wanted to shed a little light on them. They’re the real heroes. They’re fighting the real battles.”
Another reason Howard wore the sweatshirt was to promote Ohio State’s BuckeyeThon, “a student-run philanthropy in the state of Ohio which raises funds and awareness for the Hematology, Oncology and Blood & Marrow Transplant Unit at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus,” its website states. Howard hopes increased awareness for BuckeyeThon will help Ohio State reach the same level of emotional and financial support Penn State generates with THON.
“We took down Penn State this week, and they have the biggest ‘thon’ in the country,” he said. “It’s really cool what they do. I think it’d be cool if we could make BuckeyeThon that big, too. So I just wanted to shed some light on it.”
Have I mentioned that each time Howard speaks I like him more? The comments above are the best comments he’s made since he arrived at Ohio State. That must mean I like him the most that I have since he arrived at Ohio State!
LET'S GET CINEMATIC. We all watched Ohio State beat Penn State. But have we all watched the Big Ten Network's Cinematic Recap? I think the answer to that is no, so I've included BTN's behind-the-scenes video of the Buckeyes' 20-13 win over the Nittany Lions. Take five minutes to watch this. It will make your morning, afternoon, evening or night better. I promise!
SONG OF THE DAY. "Old Friends" - Ben Rector.
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