Predicting Every Big Ten Team’s Record for the 2024 Season

For the first time, the Big Ten features 18 schools after adding four teams from the West Coast this offseason. Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington join the conference’s 14 returning members in competition for two spots in the Big Ten Championship Game. And while there’s no longer a disparity between East and West in the newly divisionless conference, some teams drew significantly tougher schedules than others in the Big Ten’s first year as an 18-team league.

With that in mind, I took a look at all 18 Big Ten teams’ schedules to forecast which games each of them will win and which games each of them will lose to put together a preseason prediction for how the conference standings will shake out this fall, including who will win the Big Ten Championship Game.

In all, I’m expecting three Big Ten teams to finish with double-digit wins – Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State – while I’m expecting 10 of the league’s other 15 teams to also earn at least six victories and make it to a bowl game.

The following record projections do not include projected College Football Playoff or bowl games.

1. Ohio State (12-1, 8-1)

Ohio State will be a heavy favorite in nine of its 12 regular-season games. As loaded as the Buckeyes’ roster is, the only three contests that should be in question for the scarlet and gray are their road games against Oregon and Penn State and their rivalry game against Michigan.

The Buckeyes have won seven straight games against Penn State and the Nittany Lions’ passing game remains a big question mark. On paper, Ohio State has a more talented and experienced roster than Michigan entering the 2024 season and should be able to end its three-game losing streak against its rivals.

The biggest challenge of the regular season for the Buckeyes will come in their sixth game when they travel to Oregon to play the Ducks as a conference opponent for the first time. Oregon has the talent on both sides of the ball to contend with any team in the country this season, and I won’t be surprised to see the Ducks get the best of the Buckeyes after a cross-country road trip to Eugene. If that happens, though, I expect OSU and Oregon to meet again in the Big Ten Championship Game with the Buckeyes getting the best of the Ducks in front of what should be a pro-OSU crowd for the rematch in Indianapolis.

2. Oregon (12-1, 9-0)

If Oregon can beat Ohio State, its schedule sets up well for the Ducks to run the table.

Outside of the Buckeyes, Oregon’s toughest test of the regular season will come when it travels to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in November. Even with the long road trip for the Ducks, I like Oregon in that matchup given the substantial roster turnover for the defending national champions. Oregon’s offense could be the best in the Big Ten while Michigan’s offense could struggle against what should also be a strong Ducks defense.

If the Ducks live up to expectations, they’re likely to be double-digit favorites in all of the rest of their games, though back-to-back tilts against Wisconsin and Washington offer some upset potential at the end of the regular season.

Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks project as Ohio State’s top competition for the Big Ten title. (Photo: Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard/USA TODAY Network)

3. Penn State (11-1, 8-1)

The Nittany Lions might not be good enough to end their losing streak against Ohio State this year, but they should be good enough to beat everyone else on their regular-season schedule. 

Penn State avoids all of Oregon, Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska, giving the Nittany Lions a clear path to double-digit wins and an at-large CFP berth, though their Big Ten Championship Game hopes could still hinge on whether they can beat the Buckeyes.

4. Michigan (9-3, 7-2)

Michigan won’t have the benefit of an easy non-conference schedule to start the season this year as the Wolverines will face Texas in Week 2. Despite winning it all last year, Michigan projects to be an underdog against all of Texas, Oregon and Ohio State – all preseason top-five teams – and its CFP hopes could hinge on whether the Wolverines can pull off an upset in one of those three games.

The Wolverines’ defense should still be among the nation’s best, and that could be enough for Michigan to win the rest of its games, though meetings with USC and Washington won’t be cakewalks. Their offense could hold them back against elite competition, though, as the Wolverines have major question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and offensive line.

5. Iowa (9-3, 6-3)

Iowa has a legitimate path to the Big Ten Championship Game and a College Football Playoff berth if its offense can find life in the post-Brian Ferentz era. With a defense that should be one of the Big Ten’s best once again, an offense that should be better with the returns of Cade McNamara and Luke Lachey and a schedule that includes none of Oregon, Penn State or Michigan, Iowa could be favored against every opponent except Ohio State.

Projecting an 11-win season feels a little crazy for a team that had the worst offense in the FBS a year ago, though, so a record projection of 9-3 feels more reasonable – even if that means losing a couple of games that it maybe shouldn’t lose on paper.

6. Nebraska (8-4, 5-4)

There’s a real chance that Nebraska could be undefeated entering its trip to Ohio State. The Cornhuskers could be favored in all of their first seven games, but considering their struggles in recent years and that they’ll likely be starting a true freshman quarterback in Dylan Raiola, a slip-up somewhere along the way seems likely – a trip to West Lafayette to face the “Spoilermakers” in their first road game of the season fits the criteria for a trap game.

Nebraska’s final five games of the season set up to be much tougher than their first seven games, but Matt Rhule’s squad might not need to win many of them for the Cornhuskers to go bowling for the first time since 2016.

7. USC (7-5, 6-3)

No Big Ten team has a tougher non-conference schedule this year than USC, who opens its season against LSU and ends it against Notre Dame. Pair that with a conference schedule that includes meetings with Michigan and Penn State, and the Trojans are more likely to be fighting to finish above .500 than they are to be a serious playoff contender.

While the defense is expected to be better than it was under Alex Grinch, USC needs to be much better on that side of the ball. Without Caleb Williams, an inexperienced USC offense might not be good enough to carry the Trojans to wins against top competition if their defense continues to struggle.

8. Wisconsin (7-5, 5-4)

Wisconsin’s record projection also suffers from the curse of a tough schedule as the Badgers face Alabama in non-conference play before starting a Big Ten schedule that includes Oregon, Penn State, Iowa, Nebraska and USC. They might not be favored to win any of those games, and they’ll need to win at least one of them just to earn a winning record.

Luke Fickell’s team has enough pieces on both sides of the ball to win eight or nine games this year, but its schedule sets up the possibility that the Badgers could have to fight just to earn bowl eligibility.

9. Rutgers (7-5, 5-4)

Hopes are high entering the 2024 season in Piscataway, and not without good reason. The Scarlet Knights have their most well-rounded roster since Greg Schiano returned to town, and they avoid all of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan, giving them a schedule full of winnable games.

The only sure-fire wins on the schedule are the first two games against Howard and Akron, and their passing game remains a question mark despite the addition of Minnesota transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. But an effective defense and a solid running game led by Kyle Monangai should enable the Scarlet Knights to take advantage of a favorable schedule and finish the regular season with a winning record for the first time since 2014.

Greg Schiano and his Rutgers Scarlet Knights have their sights set on a winning season in 2024. (Photo: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY Network)

10. Washington (7-5, 4-5)

Washington’s first Big Ten schedule won’t be an easy one, as the Huskies have to face all of Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, USC and Iowa. They could be an underdog against all of those opponents after losing nearly all of their key players from their run to the national championship game last season. 

I still expect the final champions of the Pac-12 to claw their way to a winning record in Jedd Fisch’s first season at the helm, but it’s hard to envision them being a championship contender this year.

11. Indiana (6-6, 3-6)

Expectations are low entering the season for the Hoosiers, who are tied with Purdue for the longest odds to win the Big Ten (350/1) of any team on FanDuel, but I like the Hoosiers’ chances of earning their first bowl berth since 2020. 

Curt Cignetti has a proven track record of building winning teams quickly and the Hoosiers added plenty of quality players through the transfer portal this offseason. Every game on their schedule is winnable outside of their matchups with Michigan and Ohio State, and an easy non-conference schedule means they should only need to win a third of their Big Ten games to get to .500.

12. Maryland (6-6, 3-6)

They’re called the “September Terps” for a reason. Over the past three years, Maryland has gone 12-1 in games played during the first month of the season but just 8-15 in October and November.

Maryland’s schedule sets up for that trend to continue in 2024. All of the Terrapins’ first six games are very winnable, but all of their last six games are very losable. Ultimately, I expect history to repeat itself as the turtles race out of the gates like hares before limping their way to bowl eligibility in the second half of the season.

13. Michigan State (6-6, 3-6)

Michigan State is another Big Ten team that isn’t getting much hype entering the season that I expect to improve enough to make a bowl game in its first year with its new head coach. Transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles has star potential and familiarity with Jonathan Smith’s offensive system, having followed him from Oregon State to East Lansing. Like Indiana, the Spartans added enough transfer portal talent on both sides of the ball to get better right away.

The path to six wins won’t be easy, as the Spartans have to face Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan, but I think Chiles gives them enough firepower to win half of their other Big Ten games. What should be a competitive non-conference game against Boston College in Week 4 could make or break the Spartans’ bowl bid, but I give Michigan State the slight edge over Bill O’Brien’s Eagles.

Aidan Chiles looks to lead Michigan State back to a bowl bid after back-to-back losing seasons. (Photo: Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY Network)

14. UCLA (4-8, 2-7)

UCLA’s first Big Ten season starts out with two games it should win, as it gets a bye week before hosting Indiana in its first Big Ten game, but the Bruins face a murderer’s row of opponents from there as it gets LSU, Oregon and Penn State in back-to-back-to-back weeks.

The schedule doesn’t get much easier from there for the Bruins, portending a tough first year in the conference for the Bruins under new head coach DeShaun Foster.

15. Minnesota (4-8, 2-7)

Minnesota is another team that doesn’t get any favors from its schedule in the first year of the divisionless Big Ten. Five of the Golden Gophers’ nine conference games are on the road, while their home slate includes a challenging trio of games against Iowa, USC and Penn State. Add in a Thursday night season opener against UNC, and the Golden Gophers are likely to be underdogs in most of their games this season.

It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Gophers beat anyone on their schedule other than Michigan or Penn State, but the odds favor a sub-.500 season for P.J. Fleck’s group.

16. Illinois (4-8, 2-7)

The Fighting Illini have only one winning season in the last 12 years, and while that one season came just two years ago, Bret Bielema’s team appears to have an uphill climb to a winning record this season.

Illinois faces a tough challenge in non-conference play against Kansas, who could be a preseason top-25, and was handed a tough conference schedule with games against Penn State, Michigan and Oregon. The Fighting Illini’s chances of making a bowl game will likely hinge on how well they finish the regular season, as all four of their November games are winnable, but the Illini project to be a below-average Big Ten team on both sides of the ball.

17. Purdue (4-8, 2-7)

Purdue will have plenty of opportunities to play spoiler with games against Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State on its schedule, but the Boilermakers might need a big upset or two to finish the season with a winning record.

Among the four teams on Purdue’s conference schedule that should be the most beatable – Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State and Indiana – the Wildcats are the only one the Boilermakers play at home, leaving a challenging path to a bowl game for what’s expected to be one of the Big Ten’s lesser teams in 2024.

18. Northwestern (3-9, 1-8)

David Braun’s squad defied all odds by going 7-5 after Pat Fitzgerald’s summer dismissal last season, but the Wildcats have one of the Big Ten’s weakest rosters on paper and will face the added challenge of not even having a true home stadium this year.

The second half of the schedule projects as particularly tough for Northwestern as the Wildcats play three of their final five games on the road while their fans are likely to be outnumbered in their final two “home” games of the season against Ohio State and Illinois at Wrigley Field. The Wildcats’ first-half schedule features plenty of winnable games, but the Wildcats have been prone to vacillating between good and bad seasons and will need to conjure up even more magic than last year to get back to a bowl game this year.