Updated 2024 Record Projections for Every Big Ten Team After Four Weeks

Back in July, I made my preseason predictions for how every Big Ten team’s season would play out this year. Now that we’ve seen all 18 teams play at least three games, giving us a first look at how good or bad each team is, I decided to take another look through each of their schedules and update my projections for whether they will win or lose each game.

My Big Ten Championship Game projection hasn’t changed, as I still see Ohio State beating Oregon in an Indianapolis rematch to win the conference and its first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. My record projections for several other Big Ten teams have changed, though, with USC, Indiana and Illinois ranking among the biggest gainers while the projected win totals for Wisconsin and Maryland suffer the largest drops.

A green arrow has been added to the result box for games that I am now projecting the team to win or that they have already won that I projected they would lose before the season started. Conversely, a red arrow has been added to the result box for games I am now projecting the team to lose or that they have already lost that I projected they would win in my preseason picks. Completed games include the final score from those games while games yet to be played do not include projected scores.

The record projections do not include projected College Football Playoff or bowl games.

1. Ohio State (12-1, 8-1)

My prediction since before the season started has been that Ohio State will lose on the road at Oregon but win all the rest of its games and avenge its loss to the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game, and I’m sticking with that projection. I’m more confident in the Buckeyes winning in Eugene now than I was before the season started, but Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in college football, especially for a team that has to travel more than 2,000 miles to get there.

Ohio State should be a clear favorite to win all of its other regular-season games, though the Buckeyes’ conference schedule isn’t easy, as I’m projecting all of their Big Ten opponents except Purdue and Northwestern to finish the season .500 or better. Penn State and Michigan remain the toughest non-Oregon opponents on the schedule, but the Buckeyes have a better team this year than most of the teams that beat Penn State for the last seven straight years and Ohio State should be able to turn the tables on Michigan with the Wolverines having one of the nation’s worst passing offenses.

2. Oregon (12-1, 9-0)

I’m not nearly as confident as I was before the season that Oregon will win all of its non-Ohio State regular-season games, given that the Ducks almost lost to Boise State and only beat an FCS opponent by 10, but it’s hard to find any other game that the Ducks should lose. Michigan is Oregon’s only tough road opponent, and the Ducks should be clear favorites in all of their other home games, with Illinois and Washington likely to pose the biggest threats.

With that in mind, I’m projecting the Ducks will have a couple more close calls but ultimately come through the regular season unscathed – if they actually beat Ohio State – to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game in their first year in the conference before losing a rematch with the Buckeyes in Indianapolis.

3. Penn State (10-2, 7-2)

Going into the season, I predicted that Penn State would go 11-1 because I thought the Nittany Lions would be a clear favorite over everyone on their schedule except Ohio State. With USC starting stronger than I expected (at least until this past weekend) and James Franklin’s subpar track record in big games, however, I’m now picking the Trojans to hand Penn State its first loss of the season after a cross-country trip to the L.A. Coliseum.

The Nittany Lions should still beat everyone else on their schedule, though this week’s game against Illinois no longer looks like a gimme with the Fighting Illini’s strong start. A win over USC or Ohio State would go a long way toward getting into the College Football Playoff, but the rest of the schedule sets up favorably for the Nittany Lions to have a shot even if they lose their two biggest games.

4. Michigan (9-3, 7-2)

I expect Michigan to be overmatched against Oregon and Ohio State like it was against Texas, but the Wolverines’ win over USC this past weekend showed they still have what it takes to grind out tough wins against good teams.

Road games against Washington, Illinois and Indiana all carry upset potential, especially if the Wolverines allow any of those teams to take an early lead as their inept passing offense will make it tough for them to play from behind. But their resolve against the Trojans leads me to believe they’ll find a way to win the games they’re supposed to win, though they’ll likely need an upset over the Ducks or Buckeyes to make the CFP.

5. USC (9-3, 7-2)

I’m not entirely sure what to make of USC after it lost a game it should have won last weekend against Michigan, but the Trojans’ season-opening win over LSU demonstrated they’re better than I thought they were entering the season. And with no Oregon or Ohio State on their regular-season schedule, every single game for the rest of their season looks winnable.

The Trojans’ CFP hopes could hinge on whether they can beat Penn State and/or Notre Dame – two teams that could follow the Michigan blueprint to beat USC by leaning on their physical run games and defenses. Viewing both of those games as toss-ups, I’m splitting the difference by picking the Trojans to beat the Nittany Lions but falling to the Fighting Irish, whose elite pass defense could cause big problems for Miller Moss and USC’s offense.

USC will be favored in all of the rest of its games, but Lincoln Riley’s teams have a history of losing a game they shouldn’t, so I’ve got the Trojans falling to Washington as well in their toughest remaining road trip of the year.

6. Indiana (9-3, 6-3)

Just picking Indiana to make a bowl game felt bold before the season; now, my preseason 6-6 projection feels conservative. While the Hoosiers haven’t had much competition yet, the way they’ve steamrolled everyone they’ve played so far gives credence to my belief that they’re a much better team than the preseason odds reflected.

As well as the Hoosiers have played so far, they have a real chance to be favored against all of their remaining opponents except Ohio State and Michigan. I don’t expect them to quite win all of those games, but I like their chances of at least going .500 the rest of the way with Maryland, Northwestern and Purdue all looking plenty beatable. They’ll likely need two wins in a three-game stretch against Nebraska, Washington and Michigan State to become #9WINDIANA, and Curt Cignetti has me believing his team can do it with the Hoosiers currently ranking in the top eight nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

A dominant start for Indiana in Curt Cignetti’s first four games improves the Hoosiers’ record projection by three games. (Photo: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports)

7. Rutgers (9-3, 6-3)

Yes, you’re reading this correctly; I have Rutgers going into the final week of the regular season with a chance to win 10 games and perhaps steal a playoff bid in the process. I don’t quite have the Scarlet Knights getting there, but their schedule sets up favorably for them to join Indiana as a 9-win Cinderella following a key non-conference win over Virginia Tech last weekend.

The Scarlet Knights don’t have to play any of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State or Michigan, leaving road trips to USC and Nebraska as the toughest games on their conference schedule. All of their home games are very winnable – especially with how pedestrian Wisconsin has looked so far this season – and I believe in the Scarlet Knights’ chances of winning at least one of their November road games at Maryland or Michigan State, with the Terrapins looking like the slightly easier opponent after losing to the Spartans.

8. Iowa (8-4, 6-3)

The Hawkeyes’ running game and defense should carry them to win over most of the Big Ten’s weaker teams, as they did against Minnesota in their conference opener last weekend, and their schedule gives them a chance to make a run at double-digit wins with no Oregon, Penn State, Michigan or USC on the docket.

Iowa’s passing offense remains a major weakness, though, and I believe that will lead to a couple more losses in winnable games like it did against Iowa State. Outside of next week’s game at Ohio State, a road trip to Michigan State (who will be coming off a bye) and the regular-season finale vs. Nebraska look like the toughest tests for Kirk Ferentz’s squad in conference play.

9. Illinois (8-4, 5-4)

No team has surprised me more to start this season than Illinois, as evidenced by the fact that the Illini already have as many wins four weeks into the season as I projected them to have all year.

I still don’t envision Illinois beating any of the Big Ten’s top-tier teams, but its wins over Nebraska and Kansas show the Fighting Illini should be able to beat the likes of Minnesota and Michigan State. A road win at Rutgers also looks realistic after last weekend’s road win over the Cornhuskers, but I’m giving the Scarlet Knights a slight edge in that one.

10. Nebraska (8-4, 5-4)

Nebraska looks poised for its first winning season since 2016 with Dylan Raiola leading the offense, but close games still appear to be the Cornhuskers’ kryptonite with their overtime loss to Illinois.

Given that, the only conference opponents I’m truly confident Nebraska will beat are Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin – but I’m going to give Matt Rhule’s squad the benefit of the doubt and say they win two of three of what should be competitive games against Rutgers, Indiana and Iowa to get to eight wins. I think the Cornhuskers are still a year away from being ready to seriously challenge for a major road upset like beating Ohio State or USC would be, though Raiola is showing the ability to challenge any defense as a true freshman.

11. Washington (6-6, 4-5)

With one loss already to Washington State and a brutal conference schedule that includes games against all of the Big Ten’s projected top eight teams except Ohio State, the Huskies are going to have to pull out a couple of tough wins just to get to .500.

While their underwhelming start could make them an underdog against all of their remaining opponents except UCLA, I think the defending national runners-up find a way to win two other games to secure bowl eligibility.

12. Michigan State (6-6, 3-6)

Like Washington, Michigan State faces a challenging path to six wins as it has a tough conference schedule paired with a non-conference loss.

The Spartans could be underdogs against all of their remaining opponents except Purdue, but like the Huskies, I think Michigan State finds a way to win two other games – with home games against Iowa, Indiana and Rutgers being their best bets – to get to .500. Aidan Chiles should become less mistake-prone as he gains experience, which could enable the Spartans to finish strong with bowl eligibility potentially hanging in the balance.

RELATED Across The Field: Michigan State Beat Reporter Matt Wenzel Says Aidan Chiles is Raw But Could Become One of the Nation’s Best QBs, MSU’s Special Teams Has “Weapons”

13. Wisconsin (4-8, 2-7)

The team that falls the furthest from my preseason projections to my updated projections after four weeks is Wisconsin, whose unimpressive start to the year went from bad to worse when it lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury after winning by only 14 points against its two weakest opponents of the season.

Wisconsin is unlikely to be favored in any road game except Northwestern, and I’ve got the Wildcats taking that one as their most winnable game in Big Ten play. The Badgers don’t look capable of contending with Oregon and Penn State, making home games against Purdue and Minnesota look like their only good chances for conference wins in Camp Randall Stadium this year.

14. Maryland (4-8, 1-8)

Giving up 10 points in the final five minutes to lose to Michigan State was an inauspicious start to Big Ten play for a team that’s known for peaking in September. A tough second-half schedule doesn’t inspire much confidence that the Terps will break that trend this year.

The path to bowl eligibility certainly isn’t impossible, as Maryland should beat Northwestern at home while its games against Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers and Iowa are all winnable. In a conference where the middle of the pack looks as strong as it’s been in quite some time, though, the Terrapins seem to have taken a step back toward the lower tier of the conference.

15. UCLA (3-9, 1-8)

Having already squandered one of its best opportunities to win a home conference game this season against Indiana, the forecast looks bleak for UCLA’s first season in the Big Ten. The Bruins are unlikely to be favored against any conference opponent except Minnesota, and they haven’t shown much so far this season to suggest they‘re a big threat to upset anyone else.

16. Minnesota (3-9, 1-8)

Minnesota projects to be an underdog in at least five of its eight remaining games with its best chances at Big Ten wins coming against UCLA, Maryland and Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers should take care of business at home against Maryland with an extra week to prepare, but I’m less confident in them beating the Bruins and Badgers on the road.

17. Northwestern (3-9, 1-8)

Northwestern tends to alternate good seasons with bad seasons, and its five-point effort against Washington suggests this year will be one of the latter after a surprise 8-5 season last year. Beating Wisconsin looks like Northwestern’s best shot at winning a conference home game at its temporary lakefront stadium, and it’s hard to envision the Wildcats winning more than two or three Big Ten games this season at most.

18. Purdue (2-10, 1-8)

After following up a blowout loss to Notre Dame with another non-conference loss to Oregon State, Purdue enters Big Ten play looking like the conference’s worst team. We’ll give the Boilermakers a home win over the conference’s second-worst team with an extra week to prepare, but they’ll have to play far better than they have in their first two FBS games of the season to have a chance to play Spoilermaker against better competition.