Updated Big Ten Record Projections with Six Weeks to Go

My projection at the top of the conference remains the same as it’s been all year with Ohio State avenging its loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. That said, there’s been plenty of other developments throughout the conference that have warranted updates from the last set of record projections four weeks ago, such as Indiana establishing itself as a College Football Playoff contender while Michigan and USC slide toward having to battle just to make a bowl game.

Green arrows have been added to the table below for all games that I projected as losses in my last projection that teams have either already won or that I’m now projecting them to win, while the red arrows signify games that I projected each team to win in September that they have now either lost or I’m now projecting them to lose. (You can also look back at my original preseason projections here). Scores are listed for all games that are now completed, but scores are not projected for games that have not yet been played.

The record projections do not include projected College Football Playoff or bowl games.

1. Ohio State (12-1, 8-1)

My pick before the season was that Ohio State would lose to Oregon before winning the remainder of its regular-season games and avenging their loss to the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship Game, and I’m not changing that pick now. After losing by only one point in Eugene, I’m still confident the Buckeyes will turn the tables if they get a rematch much closer to home in Indianapolis.

Ohio State has to win out to get that rematch, and Penn State and Indiana will both be challenging opponents, but the Buckeyes still should beat both if they play the way they’re supposed to.

2. Oregon (12-1, 9-0)

This college football season is proving every week that staying unbeaten is easier said than done, but Oregon’s schedule sets up well the rest of the way for the Ducks to run the table in regular-season play. The Ducks have gotten better as the season has progressed and should be double-digit favorites in each of their five remaining games.

3. Penn State (11-1, 8-1)

I made the mistake of buying the early USC hype in my first record projection update of the season, but I’m back to my original projection of 11-1 for the Nittany Lions after they survived an overtime battle with the Trojans. Penn State has lost seven straight meetings with Ohio State and I think the Buckeyes extend that streak to eight, but the rest of the Nittany Lions’ schedule sets up well for Penn State to earn a College Football Playoff berth if they survive a test at Wisconsin this weekend.

3. Indiana (11-1, 8-1)

The projection for the Hoosiers just keeps getting more optimistic as they keep winning. While I was reasonably confident Indiana would make a bowl game before the season, the Hoosiers now look like a playoff-caliber team that should be favored to beat everyone on their regular-season schedule except Ohio State.

This week’s game against Washington might be the toughest remaining test for the Hoosiers outside of their trip to Columbus, especially considering they’ll be without starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke for at least one game, but they showed no signs of slowing down even after Rourke left last week’s romp over Nebraska. There’s a very real path to 11 wins and a CFP berth for Indiana, and Curt Cignetti has a believer in me that his squad will get it done.

5. Iowa (9-3, 7-2)

Last week’s loss to Michigan State was the kind of loss I thought Iowa would suffer at some point to eliminate it from the Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff races, but the rest of the schedule sets up well for the Hawkeyes to win out. Iowa gets its two toughest remaining opponents (Wisconsin and Nebraska) at home, and the Cornhuskers’ blowout loss to Indiana last weekend decreases my confidence that Nebraska is ready to win a big game on the road.

The Hawkeyes remain susceptible to losing any game because of their inept passing offense, but I’m giving Kirk Ferentz and Co. the benefit of the doubt to win every game they should the rest of the way.

6. Illinois (9-3, 6-3)

A College Football Playoff berth has become a realistic aspiration for Illinois after its win over Michigan last weekend. The Fighting Illini have been far better than I gave them credit for in my preseason projections, and they’ll likely be favored in all four of their November games.

That said, I still think it’s more likely Illinois slips up somewhere it shouldn’t – after all, the Illini only beat Purdue by one point at home – than it going 10-2 and sneaking its way into the CFP. 

7. Nebraska (7-5, 4-5)

Nebraska is better than it’s been, but last weekend’s blowout loss to Indiana shows the Cornhuskers still have a way to go to become consistent winners in the Big Ten. Their final three games are likely to define their season; all three of them are winnable, but all three of them are losable, too. Winning their two remaining home games and losing their three remaining road games seems like the most likely outcome to me.

8. Washington (6-6, 4-5)

With three losses already and three playoff contenders still on the schedule, just getting to bowl eligibility will be a challenge for the Huskies. I already had Washington beating USC even before the Trojans’ three-game losing streak, though, and the Huskies proved their ability to grind out a tough win at home against Michigan earlier this month.

9. Michigan (6-6, 4-5)

Like the team it beat in last year’s national championship game, Michigan is flirting with the possibility of missing a bowl game as it’s already suffered three losses and has to play three playoff contenders in November.

It’s hard to envision the Wolverines beating any of Oregon, Indiana or Ohio State with how poor its quarterback play has been – though the Buckeyes certainly can’t start celebrating a win in The Game until they actually get it – which makes their first rivalry game against Michigan State this weekend a potential make-or-break game for bowl eligibility. I think the maize and blue eke out a close win over the Spartans to stay on track for six wins, but it no longer feels like hating to pick the team up north to finish .500 or worse.

10. USC (6-6, 4-5)

Out of all the changes I made in my first record projections update of the season, the one I regret the most is buying USC as a Big Ten contender because of its season-opening win over LSU. The Trojans’ loss to Michigan looks worse now than it did then, but their losses to Minnesota and Maryland made it clear the Trojans weren‘t ready for the gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule – even one that doesn’t include Ohio State or Oregon.

Fortunately for the Trojans, all of their remaining conference games still look winnable. I don’t see them beating a Notre Dame team that could be playing for a playoff berth in its regular-season finale, but they’re better than their crosstown rivals and should – emphasis on should with how they’ve played recently – be able to handle home games against Rutgers and Nebraska to get to .500.

11. Wisconsin (6-6, 4-5)

The wheels looked like they might fall off the bus for Luke Fickell’s squad when they suffered back-to-back losses to Alabama and USC and lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke in the process, but the Badgers have responded nicely with three straight decisive wins in October.

The problem for the Badgers is their schedule is about to get much tougher, with challenging road games against Iowa and Nebraska sandwiched around contests with two of the Big Ten’s top three teams. The Badgers need only one more win to attain bowl eligibility, but they don’t have any layups left on their schedule.

12. Michigan State (6-6, 4-5)

Last week’s win over Iowa was exactly what Michigan State needed to get itself back on track for bowl eligibility. They won’t be favored in any of their next three games – though Michigan now looks like a more likely win than Indiana or Illinois – but the Spartans are better than Purdue and Rutgers and get both of them at home, putting them on track for a .500 season if they just win the games they’re supposed to win.

13. Rutgers (6-6, 3-6)

Oh Rutgers, I wanted to believe in you. When the Scarlet Knights started the season 4-0, their schedule appeared to set up for Greg Schiano’s squad to make a run at a 9- or 10-win season. Now, they’ll have to battle just to get to .500 after a three-game losing streak that’s included a blowout home loss to Wisconsin and another home loss to a UCLA team that was previously winless in conference play.

Their schedule is still full of winnable games, though, even if they’re likely to be an underdog in all of them. A home game against Minnesota with an extra week to prepare looks like Rutgers’ best shot at a November win, but I’m going with my gut and also giving the Scarlet Knights a surprise win over Illinois in their home finale to reach bowl eligibility.

14. Minnesota (5-7, 3-6)

The Golden Gophers have exceeded my expectations with wins over USC and UCLA, leaving them in need of just two more wins to get to a bowl game. Their November schedule is a bear, however, as they finish the season with three road games and a game against Penn State. They’ll only need to beat one of Illinois, Rutgers or Wisconsin for a bowl bid if they beat Maryland this weekend, but I have P.J. Fleck’s squad falling just short of .500.

15. Maryland (5-7, 2-7)

Maryland’s hopes of earning bowl eligibility looked bleak when the Terrapins lost their first game of October to Northwestern, but their surprise bounceback win over USC last week brought hope back to College Park. The turtles still face an uphill climb to .500, though, as they project as underdogs against all of their remaining opponents except Rutgers.

It’s certainly not out of the question that the Terps could get the second win they need this weekend at Minnesota or in their home finale against Iowa, but I’m projecting Mike Locksley’s squad will come up just short.

16. Northwestern (3-9, 1-8)

Northwestern ensured it won’t go winless in conference play with its dominant win at Maryland, but it would be a surprise to see the Wildcats beat anyone else on their schedule except Purdue. They’ll probably be favored in that game, but I’m giving that one to the Boilermakers as their only conference win since they get David Braun’s squad at home coming off of a bye week.

16. UCLA (3-9, 1-8)

UCLA isn’t as bad as its record indicates – four of its five losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 13 nationally – but the Bruins still project as underdogs in all of their remaining conference games. None of them are unwinnable, but it’s hard to pick one that they should win on paper.

18. Purdue (2-10, 1-8)

Purdue has been quite clearly the worst team in the Big Ten this season, but Northwestern is the second-worst and a home game with an extra week to prepare gives the Boilermakers a fighting chance at getting their second win of the year. It would come as a shock if they won any of their other remaining games, especially considering they still have to play three of the Big Ten’s top four teams.