Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Adds to its Lead at No. 1
Last week's feature bemoaned that it may have been a matter of time before no. 2 (likely Baylor) leapfrogged Ohio State as the new AP no. 1. Ohio State's caliber of play had not squared with its status as first ever consensus preseason AP no. 1 and Baylor is a shiny new thing for AP voters. Anointing Baylor as new no. 1 before the College Football Playoff Poll starts would generate attention for what may become an anachronism of a poll in our lifetime.
That will have to wait. Combine a convincing rout of Rutgers with a Utah upset in the Coliseum and Ohio State has increased its lead at no. 1. Ohio State gained 11 first-place votes and increased its lead over no. 2 from just 12 points to 49 points.
For the most part, voters were all too happy to jump Ohio State up ballots, given Utah's loss and a mediocre-by-Baylor-standards win over Iowa State. While several two-votes or three-votes from last week became no. 1 votes for Ohio State this week, some substantial jumps were observed elsewhere in the ballot. For example, Sam McKewon was skeptical of Ohio State last week, but sold on Ohio State this week. He moved Ohio State from no. 8 to no. 2.
There's a similar increase on Jeff Seidel's ballot. He had Ohio State at no. 6 last week and at no. 1 this week.
However, there were three outliers in which Ohio State actually did worse on this week's ballot relative to last week's ballot. Eric Avidon and Gary Smits each had Ohio State at no. 3 last week and no. 4 this week. Ross Dellenger had Ohio State at no. 5 last week. He has the Buckeyes at no. 6 this week.
Behold Jon Wilner's Latest Masterpiece
Regular readers of this feature know one name is conspicuous—every week, without fail—for casting the most peculiar ballot among the 60 AP voters. Jon Wilner, of San Jose's Mercury News, reliably casts the ballot most at odds with the poll's consensus. I call these ballots more performance art than coherent evaluation. The only way to appreciate them is to think of Wilner as a guy who fancies himself as the Andy Warhol of the AP voters.
He outdid himself this week. If you're curious who on earth gave Alabama a no. 1 vote this week, it'd be him. Here's his top 25 this week. A recap of all its moving pieces follows.
| Rank | Team | AP Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 7 |
| 2 | Clemson | 3 |
| 3 | LSU | 4 |
| 4 | Michigan State | 6 |
| 5 | Florida | 11 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 1 |
| 7 | Stanford | 8 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 9 |
| 9 | Baylor | 2 |
| 10 | Memphis | 16 |
| 11 | Utah | 13 |
| 12 | Michigan | 15 |
| 13 | Texas Christian | 5 |
| 14 | Iowa | 10 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 14 |
| 16 | Ole Miss | 19 |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 26 |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 12 |
| 19 | UCLA | 24 |
| 20 | Florida State | 17 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 23 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | 31 |
| 23 | Brigham Young | 29 |
| 24 | California | 33 |
| 25 | Temple | 21 |
Alabama lost at home to a mediocre Ole Miss team, which lost to Memphis last week. It barely beat a subpar, at best, Tennessee team on Saturday in Tuscaloosa. That was good enough to leapfrog Alabama from no. 5 on his ballot last week to no. 1 this week.
Beyond the no. 1 vote, that placement is conspicuous because it is the highest appearance for Alabama of any ballot this week by a full three spots. The next highest appearance for Alabama was a no. 4 spot (Ed Johnson). Thereafter, votes for Alabama cluster in the 5-8 region.
The no. 5 vote for Florida is also a full three spots above the next highest ranking for Florida. Tom Murphy has Florida at no. 8. There are a handful of no. 9 votes too. Thereafter, votes for Florida typically cluster between no. 10 and no. 15. Pete DiPrimio has the Gators at no. 18. Wilner, more than his peers, is sold on the Gators in 2015.
Texas A&M is still ranked on his ballot for some reason! It's not lost on me that Wilner ranked Utah just above Michigan and ranked Ole Miss just above Texas A&M. That Wilner tries to sprinkle in some concern for cognitive dissonance in a ballot that's otherwise daffy top to bottom makes it even stranger.
All four schools, with their combined seven losses, are ranked above undefeated Oklahoma State.
Ready to pull the plug on California? Jon Wilner isn't. WIlner is responsible for two of California's five points this week.
I can understand not ranking Houston high given its schedule, but not having Houston ranked at all is definitely some bold flavors.
Baylor at nine may seem low, but recall I mentioned several weeks ago that each team near the top of the poll has "haters" and Wilner has been rather consistent in ranking Baylor on the low end of the overall vote distribution for the Bears. Texas Christian's movement is interesting. TCU was no. 10 on Wilner's ballot this week and is no. 13 this week despite having a bye. Wilner ranks TCU behind a two-loss Michigan team.
I look forward to observing Wilner's latest work of art next Sunday.
On, Iowa, on the Top Ten
Ohio State fans don't need the B1G to help it. Ohio State may have needed it last year, but ultimately got into the playoff notwithstanding concerns about the overall quality of the Big Ten. It even won the playoff, giving Ohio State every benefit of the doubt, provided it remains undefeated.
However, a quality team in the Big Ten West would be kind of interesting, all things considered. So, we're hoping Iowa does well down the stretch to make the Big Ten Championship Game compelling again this year.
There are concerned parents who are struggling to talk with their children about Iowa this year, why it's undefeated, and what we, as concerned parents, could do to curb its influence. All the same, Iowa's rise up the polls with Greg Davis as offensive coordinator and with Kirk Ferentz' albatross contract constitutes one of the more quietly interesting stories of the season to date.
Brent Axe is the most optimistic about Iowa's quality relative to the rest of college football (and the other voters). He has Iowa at no. 7, the highest appearance for Iowa on any ballot (though it does have a handful of no. 8 votes). He also has Ohio State at no. 1 and Michigan State at no. 6.
Iowa may only climb from there. Its remaining games are Maryland, at Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, and at Nebraska. Those teams right now are a combined 14-23. Only the Indiana game seems like it could be a test, though Indiana is still searching for its first Big Ten win.
Other Peculiar Observations (Beyond Jon Wilner)
- Washington State (remember them?) appears on two ballots at no. 25 (Brett McMurphy, Michael Lev). Oregon, meanwhile, is still adrift in college football's wilderness.
- I'm not seeing why Mississippi State is a top 25 team. Ed Daigneault even has the Bulldogs at no. 16.
- Sam McKewon is ready to jump on the Trojan bandwagon. His no. 17 vote for USC is conspicuous as the highest-ranked vote for a team not in the AP Top 25.
- Sam McKewon dropped Florida State from his ballot and Brett McMurphy has the Seminoles at no. 25. Other voters were more forgiving. FSU has several no. 13 votes.
