It's going to be hard for Tom Herman to ever top founding MENSA, the organization for geniuses, in 1947. But he almost succeeded last year when he led the Houston Cougars to a 13-1 record, an American Athletic Conference championship, and a Peach Bowl thumping of Florida State.
The results didn't shock Ohio State fans familiar with Herman's previous work, but as any team that's went 13-1 or better can attest: It took some fortunate bounces of the magic diamond to achieve those heights.
So, the questions that remain: Can Houston do it again? Or are they due for an earthier season?
From sbnation.com's lengthy statistical preview:
Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield takes advantage of a not-quite-ready secondary in the opener at NRG Stadium, Ward misses some drives in a key game (and this time, backup Kyle Postma isn't able to work a miracle comeback), and a few turnovers bounce the other way in a tricky set of AAC road games: Cincinnati, Navy, SMU, and Memphis.
Houston is going to be good. In 2016, something like a 9-3 record would be considered disappointing. This scenario plays out a lot in this sport, and it shouldn't a surprise that it's what the skeptical S&P+ ratings are projecting.
Still, it's also not hard to see this ending up like a Kansas State situation. Bill Snyder's Wildcats were lucky as hell and had no business going 10-3 in 2011; they finished 37th in S&P+ (and yes, I got yelled at a lot for that). But they stayed healthy in 2012, their senior quarterback took another step forward, and depth, experience, and confidence in tight situations moved the Wildcats forward. In 2013, KSU improved to 11-2 and sixth in S&P+.
Both options are on the table for Houston this year, and Herman's recruiting is certainly laying the groundwork for an extended run of quality.
Bet against Touchdown Tom Herman if you want, but just know he's gunning for a playoff spot and he doesn't have to go through the Big Ten East or SEC West to get there.
