Merry Christmas to you from Eleven Warriors.
The teams from the major conferences will finally be joining us this postseason. They had been scarce in the previous two weeks, with Oregon only truly standing out as playing its bowl game early. They'll be regular appearances this week.
It starts tomorrow with the Heart of Dallas Bowl in which Kyle Whittingham puts an NCAA record on the line against West Virginia. It concludes with Miami and Wisconsin taking us into the new year in the Orange Bowl. Both games sandwich a lot of action in the middle of the week, including the Cotton Bowl and Fiesta Bowl.
This viewing guide will have you covered for the week.
Tuesday
Utah vs. West Virginia [Heart of Dallas Bowl] (ESPN, 1:30 p.m.). The Power Five conferences start to appear more regularly in the schedule this week. It'll start with this Big 12-Pac-12 clash in the Cotton Bowl venue that was originally supposed to be a C-USA-Big 12. However, 6-6 Utah will be taking the place of the C-USA representative instead.
This is an unusual matchup for another reason; it's only the second encounter all-time between the Utes and the Mountaineers. Both met in the 1964 Liberty Bowl. Utah beat West Virginia 32-6 en route to the program's first nine-win season in history.
One additional fun fact about this game: every Utah bowl game features Kyle Whittingham putting an NCAA record on the line. Whittingham is an NCAA all-time best 10-1 in bowl games, a positively insane statistic.
Vegas likes Utah to make him 11-1 in bowl games on Tuesday. The Utes are touchdown favorites.
Duke vs. Northern Illinois [Quick Lane Bowl] (ESPN, 5:15 p.m.). Northern Illinois is taking the place of the Big Ten representative in the Quick Lane Bowl. After sending three teams to the New Year's Six, the conference did not have enough bowl-eligible teams for its lowest-tier games. Thus, no B1G program will suffer the shame of being sent to Detroit as a post-season "reward."
Duke is a five-point favorite against the Huskies.
Kansas State vs. UCLA [Cactus Bowl] (ESPN, 9 p.m.). Kansas State and UCLA meet again for a bowl game. The two last played in the 2015 Alamo Bowl, a game in which UCLA held off a stiff challenge from Kansas State en route to a 40-35 win.
We may have seen the last of Josh Rosen in college football. (Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports)
It'll be a different situation this year. Josh Rosen, UCLA's star quarterback, hasn't been cleared for the game yet. He may not play on Tuesday, especially if he's going to declare for the NFL Draft with the hope of avoiding a banishment to Cleveland. Further, UCLA is bringing an interim coach to the contest and UCLA fans are probably eager just to get it done. The Chip Kelly era starts after this game.
Kansas State is a six-point favorite in Chase Field.
Wednesday
Southern Mississippi vs. Florida State [Independence Bowl] (ESPN, 1:30 p.m.). The less that's said about this, the better. Shreveport is the South's version of Detroit. You don't go to Shreveport as a reward; you go as a punishment. Put in other words, Florida State is not in this game because it's a good team this year. It's there because it sucks.
Further, Florida State shouldn't be bowl-eligible. One of their six wins came over one of the worst FCS programs in the country that doesn't meet the NCAA's arcane eligibility requirements. Basically, Reddit exercised more oversight over Florida State or the NCAA than Florida State or the NCAA.
Florida State has since issued a rebuttal to this by reaffirming that their totes bowl-eligible, guys.
Let the record show, Florida State, you're only continuing an NCAA-record 36-straight bowl-game streak because of a regulatory failure. Also, you're still in this bowl game because you suck.
Iowa vs. Boston College [Pinstripe Bowl] (ESPN, 5:15 p.m.). The Big Ten is finally on the schedule. Iowa will lead off the conference's slate with one of the better commodities the conference has: the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx.
Watch Boston College's rushing offense this game. It's what I think will be the difference in my projected win for the Eagles over Iowa even as Iowa is a field-goal favorite.
Arizona vs. Purdue [Foster Farm's Bowl] (FOX, 8:30 p.m.). Purdue is back in the postseason for the first time since 2012. However, this is a rough matchup for the Boilermakers. The Wildcats have the country's No. 3 rushing offense and Purdue will not have seen a team quite like it.
We can qualify Arizona is a high-variance rushing attack and the disparity between outputs against teams like Houston (152 yards) and lowly Oregon State (534 yards) is discernible. However, I still expect to see Arizona leave this game with the win.
For Purdue fans, at least they'll keep Jeff Brohm another year. He's doing good work in West Lafayette.
Texas vs. Missouri [Texas Bowl] (ESPN, 9 p.m.). Tom Herman's debut in Austin is a six-win season book-ended with home losses to Maryland and Texas Tech. It's almost as if Texas is playing like it hired a cast-off at Ohio State to coordinate its offense.
Not the best first year for Texas Tom. (John Gutierrez-USA TODAY Sports)
Texas is entering this game short-handed. It announced the suspension of three players last week. The most significant suspension is wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey, who is second on the team in receiving. Texas will also be without safety DeShon Elliott, cornerback Holton Hill and tackle Connor Williams. All three left the program early to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Missouri is a small (-1) favorite this game.
Thursday
Virginia at Navy [Military Bowl] (ESPN, 1:30 p.m.). I did a double-take to make sure I read this right since Virginia is not exactly a common occurrence in the postseason. This will only be Virginia's second bowl game in the past 10 seasons.
Both programs are 6-6 but on different trajectories. Virginia is trending up in Bronco Mendenhall's second season. Its mauling of Boise State in Boise stands out notwithstanding a season that saw the Hoos lose five of their last six games.
Meanwhile, Navy is 6-6 and seemingly trending downward. The Midshipmen now have a two-game losing streak to Army and have lost six of their last seven games.
Navy is a small (-1.5) favorite but I like the Hoos to take this one. It would be Virginia's first bowl win since the 2005 Music City Bowl.
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State [Camping World Bowl] (ESPN, 5:15 p.m.). This will be our first bowl game featuring two playoff-ranked teams. For what bowl games should be, it's an exotic matchup between two tradition-rich-in-their-own-way programs that don't see each other a lot. It'll be the first game between these two programs since a home-and-home in 1971 and 1972. The Cowboys and Hokies split the series, winning their respective contests at home.
Oklahoma State is favored (-4.5) to break the all-time series tie in Orlando, though.
Stanford vs. TCU [Alamo Bowl] (ESPN, 9 p.m.). Several weeks ago, I railed against the Big 12 Championship Game as a redundant contest that could only ruin a would-be playoff participant. I didn't consider the fact that Oklahoma routing TCU means the Big XII played itself *out* another New Year's Six game.
In other words, Oklahoma was going to the playoff no matter what. Had there been no Big 12 Championship Game, TCU in all likelihood would've secured a New Year's Six game at the expense of a third Big Ten team. Instead, TCU is going to the Alamo Bowl and the Big 12 cost itself a fair bit of money to have Oklahoma beat TCU twice.
Expect TCU to take out a lot of frustration on the Cardinal for that loss in what amounts to a matchup between the Pac-12 runner-up and the Big 12 runner-up.
Washington State vs. Michigan State [Holiday Bowl] (FS1, 9 p.m.). Dantonio complained about Michigan getting a more prestigious bowl game than Michigan State despite there being no justifiable way of saying Michigan "deserved" the selection. Though, my hot take, I'd rather play in the Holiday Bowl than the Outback Bowl because San Diego is by several orders of magnitude a superior location to Tampa.
Keep an eye on Washington State's defense this game, especially as Ohio State is purportedly trying to hire away its defensive coordinator. That should be the difference in the Cougars taking this game as small (-1) favorites.
Friday
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M [Belk Bowl] (ESPN, 1 p.m.). College football Twitter's favorite bowl game is back, featuring the interim-led Aggies taking on Dave Clawson's Demon Deacons.
Texas A&M fans won't care that they're three-point underdogs to Wake Forest. They'll just want to start the Jimbo era.
NC State vs. Arizona State [Sun Bowl] (CBS, 3 p.m.). Get a good glimpse of Arizona State while you can because it's the last you're going to see this smoldering dumpster fire of a program in the postseason for a long time.
The FOIA requests that reveal the extent of this crony hire should make for great journalism. (Tom Tingle/The Arizona Republic via USA TODAY Sports)
Kentucky at Northwestern [Music City Bowl] (ESPN, 4:30 p.m.). It's an all-Wildcat affair in Nashville as a surging Kentucky program finally seeing the dividends of Mark Stoops' recruiting takes on a red-hot Northwestern team.
Vegas really likes Northwestern in this game. The eight-point spread in favor of Northwestern is the biggest a Big Ten team has this postseason.
New Mexico State vs. Utah State [Arizona Bowl] (CBS Sports, 5:30 p.m.). This is one of the most inaccessible bowl games on the schedule featuring teams from low-interest conferences on a network with limited availability. You'll probably be pre-gaming for the Cotton Bowl instead.
USC vs. Ohio State [Cotton Bowl] (ESPN, 8:30 p.m.). This is the makeshift Rose Bowl of the playoff era. Stay tuned to Eleven Warriors for comprehensive coverage of this game.
Saturday
Louisville vs. Mississippi State [Taxslayer Bowl] (ESPN, 12 p.m.). Louisville and Mississippi State will end their 2017 seasons by slaying some taxes in the former Gator Bowl this Saturday at noon.
Mississippi State will be without Dan Mullen and it should be unsurprising that Louisville is a big (-6.5) favorite in this game.
Iowa State at Memphis [Liberty Bowl] (ABC, 12:30 p.m.). Here's another quirk akin to the Boca Raton Bowl. Memphis is hosting its own bowl game against Iowa State much like FAU did against Akron last Tuesday.
This helps make Memphis is a favorite in this game (-4) but Iowa State is no slouch. Ask Oklahoma.
Washington vs. Penn State [Fiesta Bowl] (ESPN, 4 p.m.). Last year's would-be Rose Bowl is this year's Fiesta Bowl. The 2016 Big Ten and Pac-12 champions will clash in a subtly intriguing game.
In all likelihood, this would've been a better game last year. Penn State played with more swagger down the stretch in 2016 than it showed this year. Further, Washington had more confidence in its offense last year than it does this year. Jake Browning still has playmakers, but he seems to trust them less without John Ross on the roster to incinerate some hapless secondary.
Penn State is favored (-2) to go to 3-0 all-time against the Huskies, though there is considerable gaps between contests. The last game between the two was the 1983 Alaho Bowl, which Penn State won 13-10. Before that: 1921. Penn State closed an undefeated regular season with a December trip to Seattle to beat the Huskies, 21-7.
Wisconsin at Miami [Orange Bowl] (ESPN, 8 p.m.). Miami will host its own bowl game (something it's done quite a lot) to conclude the last college football game of the 2017 calendar year when it takes on Wisconsin. The game itself is a unique matchup between the runners-up from the Big Ten and ACC championship games.
This is the best possible matchup for both teams, all things considered. Had Wisconsin defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin is in the playoff and an almost certain underdog against any of the top three teams. Clemson, Georgia, or Oklahoma would've done nasty things to Wisconsin. Miami, by contrast, is a talented team punching well above its weight in Mark Richt's second year, but Wisconsin is likely the better "team" on the field.
Likewise, Miami seemed a non-starter for the playoff after Pittsburgh upset it and after Clemson annihilated it. However, if Wisconsin had beat Ohio State, the ripple effect would've sent Alabama to the Orange Bowl. Alabama would have destroyed this Miami team. Wisconsin, by contrast, is a much more manageable opponent.
Either way, let's send out in 2017 in style in the Orange Bowl in what amounts to college football's New Year's Eve party.
