Week 11 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150382/fake-bcs-rankings-week-11
Week 12 Thread: https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/college-sports/2024/11/150598/fake-bcs-rankings-week-12
Still no Anderson & Hester rankings, so still using the adjusted Computer Average (drop top and bottom, average the remaining 3).
We have a shakeup in the automatic qualifiers this week. With BYU losing, Boise St. gets the first round by as a G5 team and the B12 secures the automatic berth as a 12 seed. I'm curious what happens if Army West Point manages to beat Notre Dame. The Colley Matrix lets you simulate individual games and they'd have Army up to 13 with Notre Dame at 11 if Army wins. This is not enough to jump BYU and secure the berth yet going off just the Colley Matrix rankings, but the possibility of 2 G5 teams and the B12 left out is still on the table if BYU doesn't win the B12. That would be crazy.
On to the rankings....
| Team | Conf | Record | BCS Rank | BCS Average | AP Poll | AP Avg | Coaches | Coaches Avg | Computer | Computer Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | B10 | 11-0 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1.0000 |
| Ohio St | B10 | 9-1 | 2 | 0.9495 | 2 | 0.9581 | 2 | 0.9571 | 2 | 0.9333 |
| Texas | SEC | 9-1 | 3 | 0.9167 | 3 | 0.9116 | 3 | 0.9185 | 3 | 0.9200 |
| Penn St | B10 | 9-1 | 4 | 0.8399 | 4 | 0.8510 | 4 | 0.8422 | 6 | 0.8267 |
| Indiana | B10 | 10-0 | 5 | 0.8395 | 5 | 0.8452 | 5 | 0.8065 | 4 | 0.8667 |
| Georgia | SEC | 8-2 | 6 | 0.7601 | 8 | 0.7181 | 8 | 0.7222 | 5 | 0.8400 |
| Notre Dame | FBSI | 9-1 | 7 | 0.7574 | 6 | 0.7684 | 6 | 0.7971 | 8 | 0.7067 |
| Alabama | SEC | 8-2 | 8 | 0.7334 | 7 | 0.7290 | 7 | 0.7244 | 7 | 0.7467 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 8-2 | 9 | 0.6670 | 9 | 0.6987 | 9 | 0.7156 | 11 | 0.5867 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 9-1 | 10 | 0.6308 | 11 | 0.6097 | 10 | 0.6160 | 9 | 0.6667 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8-2 | 11 | 0.5734 | 10 | 0.6148 | 11 | 0.5985 | 13 | 0.5067 |
| SMU | ACC | 9-1 | 12 | 0.5723 | 13 | 0.5226 | 12 | 0.5411 | 10 | 0.6533 |
| Boise St | MWC | 9-1 | 13 | 0.5312 | 12 | 0.5677 | 13 | 0.5193 | 13 | 0.5067 |
| BYU | B12 | 9-1 | 14 | 0.5178 | 14 | 0.5065 | 15 | 0.4604 | 11 | 0.5867 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8-2 | 15 | 0.4377 | 15 | 0.4432 | 14 | 0.4698 | 16 | 0.4000 |
| Clemson | ACC | 8-2 | 16 | 0.4226 | 17 | 0.3606 | 16 | 0.4138 | 15 | 0.4933 |
| Colorado | B12 | 8-2 | 17 | 0.3668 | 16 | 0.3761 | 18 | 0.3375 | 17 | 0.3867 |
| Army | AAC | 9-0 | 18 | 0.3139 | 18 | 0.3581 | 17 | 0.3702 | 20 | 0.2133 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7-3 | 19 | 0.3118 | 19 | 0.2865 | 19 | 0.2756 | 18 | 0.3733 |
| Iowa St | B12 | 8-2 | 20 | 0.2134 | 22 | 0.1652 | 21 | 0.1949 | 19 | 0.2800 |
| Arizona St | B12 | 8-2 | 21 | 0.1968 | 21 | 0.2077 | 22 | 0.1825 | 21 | 0.2000 |
| Tulane | AAC | 9-2 | 22 | 0.1907 | 20 | 0.2084 | 20 | 0.2036 | 23 | 0.1600 |
| Kansas St | B12 | 7-3 | 23 | 0.0818 | NR | 0.0232 | 25 | 0.0487 | 22 | 0.1733 |
| UNLV | MWC | 8-2 | 24 | 0.0494 | 23 | 0.0806 | 23 | 0.0676 | NR | 0.0000 |
| Missouri | SEC | 7-3 | 25 | 0.0449 | NR | 0.0361 | NR | 0.0320 | 25 | 0.0667 |
CFP Seedings:
- Oregon (1)
- Texas (3)
- Miami FL (10)
- Boise State (13)
- Ohio State (2)
- Penn State (4)
- Indiana (5)
- Georgia (6)
- Notre Dame (7)
- Alabama (8)
- Ole Miss (9)
- BYU (14)
Matchups:
- Notre Dame (7 - 0.7574) at Georgia (6 - 0.7601) - Winner plays Oregon (1 - 1.0000)
- BYU (14 - 0.5178) at Ohio State (2 - 0.9495) - Winner plays Boise State (13 - 0.5312)
- Ole Miss (9 - 0.6670) at Penn State (4 - 0.8399) - Winner plays Miami FL (10 - 0.6308)
- Alabama (8 - 0.7334) at Indiana (5 - 0.8395) - Winner plays Texas (3 - 0.9167)
As I did last week, the matchups include the BCS Ranking and BCS Average rather than the actual CFP Seeding in order to gauge the true strength of the matchups. Ohio State gets a very favorable set of games with BYU and Boise State at the 5 seed. Penn State at 6 actually has a tougher first round game than second round which is a product of Miami getting a bye despite being ranked at 10, and I think the 6 seed is the only seed where this is possible, but the 5 seed is still substantially easier to advance to the semifinals.
Last week we had a lot of space between the top seeds. Ohio State gained a few thousands of a point but Texas moved up quite a bit due to the computers this week with Georgia's defeat of previously 1 loss Tennessee making Texas the only 1 loss SEC team remaining. Penn State and Indiana gain a few hundredths each and are pretty much interchangeable at this point, only separated by 4 ten-thousandths of a point. Then Georgia and Alabama seem to be a cut above the other SEC 2 loss teams with Notre Dame right there also. Ole Miss gets in by the skin of their teeth but Tennessee and Texas A&M are on the outside looking in and could potentially sneak in depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
There weren't really any surprises with the committee last week in the CFP rankings. They had Georgia as the first team out and Ole Miss in, but with Georgia's win over Tennessee, I'd expect Georgia to be clearly in the fold this week and Tennessee out. Where Miami, SMU, BYU and Boise State end up will also be interesting, but I expect Miami to stay ahead of SMU to get the automatic berth and Boise State to still get a berth as the top G5. The question is whether Boise State is ahead of BYU and gets the first round bye or not. BCS has Boise State in the top 4 seeds, but the committee may be hesitant to do so.
