I looked at the FanDuel data for the futures to get the odds for each section of the bracket to get most likely results. Won't quite add up to 100% due to the odds, but should be close.
Semis
Rose Bowl Champion
| Oregon | 55.8% |
| Ohio State | 35.4% |
| Tennessee | 10.1% |
Sugar Bowl Champion
| Georgia | 63.8% |
| Notre Dame | 28.3% |
| Indiana | 8.7% |
Fiesta Bowl Champion
| Penn State | 61.6% |
| Boise | 23.3% |
| SMU | 16% |
Peach Bowl Champion
| Texas | 64.6% |
| Arizona State | 22.9% |
| Clemson | 13.0% |
1/4 Bracket Champion
| Oregon | 33.6% |
| Texas | 31.5% |
| Ohio State | 23.3% |
| Tennessee | 6.1% |
| Arizona State | 5.1% |
| Clemson | 3.9% |
2/3 Bracket Champion
| Georgia | 40.2% |
| Penn State | 31.5% |
| Notre Dame | 15.3% |
| Indiana | 6.2% |
| SMU | 6.1% |
| Boise | 5.1% |
Of the 18 possible opponent paths we face to a championship, the most likely are:
| Texas/Georgia | 26.0% |
| Texas/PSU | 20.3% |
| Texas/Notre Dame | 9.9% |
| ASU/Georgia | 9.2% |
| ASU/PSU | 7.2% |
| Clemson/Georgia | 5.2% |
| Clemson/PSU | 4.1% |
| Texas/Indiana | 4.0% |
| Texas/SMU | 4.0% |
| ASU/Notre Dame | 3.5% |
| Texas/Boise | 3.3% |
| Clemson/Notre Dame | 2.0% |
| ASU/Indiana | 1.4% |
| ASU/SMU | 1.4% |
| ASU/Boise | 1.2% |
| Clemson/Notre Dame | 0.8% |
| Clemson/SMU | 0.8% |
| Clemson/Boise | 0.7% |
55% of the time we must go through Texas, and one of Georgia/PSU/Notre Dame.
But 45% of the time, the path is significantly easier. ASU has 23% to come out of that bracket and would be great to face.
Indiana/SMU/Boise have very slim odds to make it out, so certainly one of Georgia/PSU/Notre Dame will be the final opponent, but all are beatable.
