I took the F+ Rankings for each offense and defense and took the ratio of the opponents opposing side for each game.
A ratio 100% means you should expect that team to struggle to score, and > 100% means easier scoring.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 1 Scoring Ratio | Team 2 Scoring Ratio | Difference |
| Ohio State | Tennessee | 91% | 39% | 52% |
| Notre Dame | Indiana | 124% | 84% | 40% |
| Penn State | SMU | 141% | 86% | 55% |
| Texas | Clemson | 132% | 59% | 73% |
Looks like it would predict a lower scoring game than usual given both teams having strong defenses compared to the opposing team's offense.
Tennessee's offense (#25), however is abysmal compared to a top 2 defense from OSU. Only ASU's offense is worse. Their defense has a favorable matchup against our offense but not by much.
I'm surprised that Indiana isn't so badly outmatched by Notre Dame. Indiana's #4 offense is held in check by Notre Dame's #3 defense. But their defense (#15) is only a bit behind Notre Dame's offense (#7).
Noting too surprising in the other games given how weak the opponents are.
Assuming chalk we would get the following:
| Team 1 | Team 2 | 1 Offense Adv. | 2 Offense Adv. | Difference |
| Oregon | Ohio State | 100% | 121% | -21% |
| Georgia | Notre Dame | 80% | 114% | -34% |
| ASU | Texas | 53% | 169% | -116% |
| Boise | PSU | 89% | 286% | -197% |
This model is predicting the opposite of chalk - every bye team loses. Oregon/OSU and Georgia/ND are close but the rest are not at all (not surprising).
Following the model we get:
| Team 1 | Team 2 | 1 Off Adv | 2 Off Adv | Diff |
| Texas | Ohio State | 59% | 76% | -17% |
| ND | PSU | 103% | 82% | 21% |
OSU vs. Notre Dame for the finals:
| ND O | OSU O | Diff | ||
| ND | OSU | 72% | 85% | 13% |
OSU wins the title in this one.
Not surprising since OSU is F+ overall #1, but has to go through #2, #3, #4, and #10 teams to get there.
