It's here. Conference play is upon us. And there's no easing into the slate as Ohio State takes on a top 10 Rutgers squad that has owned the Buckeyes for the better part of a decade. Fortunately, the players that were responsible for the many Scarlet Knight beatdowns have departed.
The latest iteration, however, is no less scary. There are big players in stature and effectiveness all over the field. And a super senior goalie mans the cage. This will be a dogfight for a Buckeye team that never seems to cease being in flux. Let's get into it.
Offense
Rutgers likes to go fast. The team dubs it NASCAR, which is really a misnomer. The Knights push in transition a lot, but they're nothing like Hobart was, or how Tufts in DIII is in possession. Rutgers isn't as reckless, and doesn't take the same chances.
Pushing in transition allows Rutgers to really crush teams that can't match up physically with them. Including Ohio State last year. But, as Princeton showed, teams that can play will have a pretty good chance of winning.
Rutgers is led by Ross Scott (#5) and Mitch Bartolo (#4) down low at attack, with Brian Cameron (#11) just behind the pair. Those three have combined for 99 points on the season, which is absolutely impressive. Cameron is great off-ball, while Scott and Bartolo can dodge with the best. Bartolo is massive at 6'6", 240 lbs. This is going to be a tough assignment for the Buckeye D.
In midfield, DIII transfer Ronan Jacoby (#8) is an absolute stud, while Shane Knobloch (#27) has only built on his breakout freshman year. The SSDMs are going to be in for a rough day tomorrow, as there are threats all over the field.
Defense
The Scarlet Knights returned most of their starting D from a year ago, as nearly all of them returned. Bobby Russo (#90) and Jaryd Jean-Felix (#88) came back after starting all 13 games last year. Bryant Boswell (#90) is the other starter, who transferred in from Bucknell after 4 years with the Bison. The defense is big, tough, and talented.
The focus is going to be on stopping Jack Myers, which is how you beat the Buckeyes. With Jean-Felix named a preseason All American, he likely matches up at X with Myers. The question becomes can the other pieces put it together to score enough for Ohio State to come out on top?
Goalie
Rutgers undeniably has the advantage here. With Caton Johnson's implosion, Skylar Wahlund will start between the pipes. And that's worrisome. He is going to face a TON of shots, and the Buckeyes need about a .500 save percentage in order to have a hope of winning. Wahlund has never done that against a team with a pulse.
Colin Kirst (#23) is back for Rutgers, and is likely to doom the Buckeyes just like his younger brother did for Cornell.
Faceoffs
Justin Inacio was back above 60% against Dartmouth on Tuesday, which is nice to see. He will need the same or better for Ohio State to have a prayer tomorrow. Fortunately, Rutgers is a little weak at the dot, having won only 51% of their draws all year, and going 16-35 against Hofstra last time out. If there is an area Ohio State can dominate, it's faceoffs. They'll need a big effort tomorrow from Inacio.
Special Teams
The other area Ohio State is likely to dominate is special teams. The Buckeyes remain above 70% on Man Up and below 30% on Man Down. Those are exceptional numbers. Rutgers, by contrast, is converting just 33% of their Man Up chances, while allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time when the Scarlet Knights go Man Down.
This is a game with massive implications for Ohio State in conference and nationally. If the Buckeyes win, it would take an absolute disaster to keep them from an at-large bid. If they lose, there's a ton of work to be done to make it. Especially since Penn State is such a problem for Coach Myers' teams.
Rutgers in 2022 is a little less lethal than last year's team. They're converting just 31% of their shots, while opponents are right at 28%. Each close game for Rutgers this year, and their only loss, came because teams kept the shot differential close, and were efficient shooting. Rutgers buries teams by taking 13.9 more shots per game than their opponents. If Ohio State manages to be -6 or more in shot differential, this is a win.
If not, this game could get ugly. Especially early. Ohio State has a nasty habit of not playing a complete game. Dartmouth was a good defensive effort in the second half, but the Big Green are not good on O. To win, the Buckeyes need a great defensive effort, excellent goalie play, and great faceoff work. All in the same 60 minutes. I don't think they have it in them.
There's not enough consistency in any phase of the game for Ohio State to overcome Rutgers' barrage of shots. This has been a problem for 4 years, and it's still not resolved. Rutgers goes up big early, Ohio State chips away for a decent rally, but in the end it's not particularly close.
Final prediction: Rutgers 18, Ohio State 13.
Go Bucks!
