Ohio State's stocks have lived in the extreme the past three games.
Almost all investments saw a meteoric rise after a blowout win against then-No. 5 Indiana, everything (at least on offense) plummeted to rock bottom in a catastrophic loss to Michigan, and now almost everything is on the rise again after the Buckeyes dominated Tennessee 42-17 in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
The exact diseases that caused Ohio State to discover the definition of insanity (doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results) running the ball up the middle time and time again against the Wolverines may never be diagnosed. But the Buckeyes' players and coaches came prepared with a better plan and better execution against the Volunteers.
There are only nits to pick on special teams. Ohio State's offense and defense dominated on Saturday to set up a CFP quarterfinal clash with Oregon at the Rose Bowl – which probably isn't fair to the Ducks, but is electrifying nonetheless.
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Game planning
On Saturday the Buckeyes remembered that they have the best wide receiver corps in college football and used that fact to open up their offense. Ohio State dialed up five passes and just one run on its opening drive, drawing a facemask penalty to negate a sack as it marched 75 yards for a touchdown. On its second drive, Will Howard connected with Emeka Egbuka on a 40-yard pass to set up another quick scoring drive, and in less than seven minutes, the Buckeyes had scored more points than they did against Michigan.
Spacing the ball in such ways and running meshes, slides and screens to challenge Tennessee's defense horizontally opened up the running game for the Buckeyes to the point that they outrushed the Volunteers 156 to 152. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly learned their lessons from the Michigan game and applied them. Jeremiah Smitha and Emeka Egbuka caught a combined 11 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns, both scored by Smith, vs. Tennessee.
Will Howard
Howard put on his best performance as a Buckeye quarterback after his worst one just a game prior. Going 24-of-29 for 311 yards and two touchdowns, his deep-ball accuracy has never been so precise. Just bask in the beauty of this dot for a moment:
will howard; emeka egbuka pic.twitter.com/npbX5d92xQ
— (@H00DH3R0) December 22, 2024
The offensive line
Game planning and quarterbacking success shouldn't overshadow the rebound of Ohio State's offensive line. There were doubts that a guard rotation of Austin Siereveld, Tegra Tshabola and Luke Montgomery could work, but each played 30 snaps and the unit posted easily its best performance since Seth McLaughlin's season-ending injury, the Buckeyes gaining 4.7 yards per carry as Howard didn't take a single sack against a vaunted Tennessee defensive front.
Jack and JT
Ohio State's star defensive end tandem combined for 13 tackles, 3.5 sacks, three pass breakups and a forced fumble in their most dominant cumulative effort to date. I broke it down in more detail here, but to reuse a clip from that story, look at this clinical pass rush from Sawyer, chopping down the hands of an opposing offensive tackle to burn him with a speed rush:
Cody Simon
Simon showed why he's the consummate middle linebacker in Jim Knowles' defense, collecting a game-high 12 tackles and adding a pass breakup while making sure everyone was aligned and ready to fire off against Tennessee's high-tempo offense. He seemed like the only man who could consistently get Volunteer quarterback Nico Iamaleava on the ground when he scrambled, perhaps the best part of the Vols' offense on Saturday as he finished just 14-of-31 for 104 yards passing.
Notre Dame
Each of the home teams impressed in their first-round CFP games on Friday and Saturday, but Notre Dame's been running hot as its established an identity of physicality throughout the season, now on an 11-game winning streak since falling to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7. The Fighting Irish rushed for 193 yards and held Indiana's offense to just 278 total yards in a 27-17 win more dominant than that scoreline reflects.
Stock Down
Caleb Downs, punt returner
Downs was his usual dominant self from the safety position as the unanimous All-American collected seven tackles. But he muffed a punt he probably should have let bounce against Tennessee as Ohio State led 14-0, which could have gifted the Volunteers some needed momentum had he not recovered the football. He was replaced by wide receiver Brandon Inniss back deep the rest of the game.
Bravado
Alright, alright, I'll admit it, I underestimated the impact of the cold weather on Tennessee in this football game. In my defense, I didn't expect blatant ignorance and stupidity on the part of the Volunteers.
I cant stop laughing at Tennessee having their whole team run out shirtless in pregame to prove a point that theyre tough and then dropping like flies all game in the Northern cold. pic.twitter.com/JnlGf5nr3L
— Ohios Tate (@BarstoolTate) December 22, 2024
Penn State also beat SMU 38-10 in the Mustangs' journey into a winter environment. Do you know why northern teams excelled in cold weather in the College Football Playoff this weekend? In the north, people know not to thumb their noses at the cold and say nah nah nah boo boo you can't hurt me. If you grew up in Ohio like your dear stock report writer or any other state where it's consistently below freezing in the winter months, you don't handle the cold better because you're fond of it. You respect the cold. Perhaps even fear it.
My father and the Boy Scouts of America imparted the same wisdom to me during snowy campouts in my youth: Keep your core warm, the rest of your body will follow. Allowing a huge swath of players to intentionally drop their core temperatures by warming up shirtless to try and make some statement about toughness and the weather not being a problem is a level of gross coaching negligence from Josh Heupel and his staff that rivals the pitfalls of Ohio State's Michigan game plan.
Their athletes followed suit by folding like origami paper, a new hamstring injury, cramp or soft-tissue injury popping up every other play, it seemed. It sure would have helped to keep those muscles and tissues warm and prevent them from constricting as much. They simply didn't respect the cold. What on earth were they thinking?
CFP seeding and structure
Sixth-seeded Penn State gets a golden road paved to the semifinals if it can take advantage with a home game against an overmatched 11th-seeded SMU squad and Group of Five opponent in third-seeded Boise State being their lone barriers to entry. Top-seeded Oregon, on the other hand, must play the first-round's hottest team to get to the final four.
Sports tournaments should be structured to favor the top overall seeds. This is how it works. With fifth-seeded Texas playing fourth-seeded Arizona State, a team that went 3-9 last year before winning a tire-fire Big 12 with a first-year head coach in Kenny Dillingham, the top two seeds in the CFP get the toughest quarterfinal matchups of the squads that got byes. Second-seeded Georgia is rewarded with a game against the seventh-seeded Notre Dame team referenced above.
This is the first year of the 12-team format, there were always going to be kinks. But the CFP needs to change its structure. Either do away with byes only going to conference champions or if you want to keep that intact to keep more meaning on conference title games, re-seed after the first round based on the final rankings – an idea I first saw floated by FOX analyst Joel Klatt. The pairings would then be as follows for the quarterfinals (by final CFP ranking):
- No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 12 Arizona State
- No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 9 Boise State
- No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Penn State
Notice how the top two teams have the most favorable matchups in that slate, getting rewarded for having the best regular seasons. Interesting!
The SEC
All the discourse about the SEC and how deep it was and how Indiana and SMU shouldn't have gotten in ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss and South Carolina should have come to an end after the Buckeyes blew the doors off the Volunteers, but that didn't stop Kirk Herbstreit and ESPN from stumping for those teams after the first round.
On @SportsCenter last night, @KirkHerbstreit takes a stand. Do you agree? pic.twitter.com/OFCbboT4QH
— Linda Cohn (@lindacohn) December 22, 2024
Yes Kirk, it matters who you beat. But guess what? It also matters who you lose to. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and got blown out by a remedial Oklahoma team, if anyone forgot. One win against Georgia doesn't magically erase those results.
By this logic, Michigan (7-5) should be in the playoff, seeing as it beat a really good Ohio State team. Where aren't all the SEC pundits crying foul that Vanderbilt (6-6) or Oklahoma (6-6) didn't get in, seeing as they beat this Alabama team that's apparently so deserving? What about Arkansas (6-6), who beat playoff-bound Tennessee?
Blowouts happen in the first round of sporting tournaments constantly. It happens plenty in the NFL. If this year's Alabama or Ole Miss or South Carolina squad traveled up to South Bend and played Notre Dame there's a good chance they'd have suffered a similar fate to Indiana. Sure, on paper, Indiana and SMU don't have the same talent as those SEC squads. But last I checked, games are played for a reason. Lose to multiple teams you shouldn't lose to, you don't get to compete for a title. That's just how it works.
Coaching Searches
Ryan Day all but secured his job for next season as Ohio State's head football coach with a dominant showing against Tennessee. Athletic director Ross Bjork said going into the CFP that Day will "absolutely" be the Buckeyes' coach in 2025, and a loss to the Volunteers at home was likely the only thing that could have made him reconsider that position.
For better or worse, Day is this program's coach going forward. With that concern out of his mind, he'll have a chance to prove why on the remainder of this CFP run.
