It's a wild time for the Big Ten, and Ohio State. Last year's champions just got housed by That Team Up North, Johns Hopkins is likely a top 5 team, Penn State is looking better than last year by a wide margin, and Rutgers is in complete free fall. Just as we all predicted.
Heading down to Panzer Stadium tomorrow, Ohio State is meeting a Penn State squad that is in a bit of a skid. A loss to Marquette two weeks ago was followed by a defeat to Maryland last week, bringing Penn State to 5-3. This is a pivotal game for them, and for the Buckeyes. Lose here, and it's bye-bye postseason.
Penn State is rolling with a revamped offense, thanks to the likes of TJ Malone (#7) being healthy, Jack (#16) and Matt (#22) Traynor combining well, and the physical presence of Chris Jordan (#45). This is a senior/5th year heavy team, and has a lot more balance than last year's squad. I also think this is going to hurt more than help Penn State in the long run, but that's another issue for another blog.
Penn State has always shot the ball pretty well, and this year is no exception. The Nittany Lions has a shot percentage of .311, and average 4 more shots per game than their opponents. Penn State is also getting 62.3% of their shots on goal, which is outstanding. The offense scores 2.6 more goals per game than their opponents, which has to do more with the defense being sneaky mediocre. It's a very threatening team, but obviously one that is beatable.
Defensively, Penn State lets way too many good shots on cage. Opponents average 61%, which is very bad. Last week, Ohio State had under 50% of their goals on target. So you can imagine what might happen if they reach a similar number against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions will likely start Sam Sweeney (#3), Kevin Parnham (#55), and Jack Posey (#43) down low at the poles. It should be interesting to see who matches up with Myers. My guess is Parnham, which leads us down a similar path to games where Myers gets swallowed up by athletic defenders.
In goal, Penn State will start Jack Fracyon (#50), who is having a really solid year. Fracyon is saving 54% of shots, and averages almost 13 saves per game. It's going to take work to beat him. Hopefully Colby Smith brings his good shooting gloves tomorrow.
Faceoff is where Ohio State, if they do well, can win this game. Penn State rolls out Chase Mullins (#38) at faceoff, at the past two games they have won just 8 draws. Correspondingly, both games are losses. Penn State, like Ohio State, is best when they're crushing the draw. If not, they will get beat. And both Marquette and Maryland stymied Penn State at the dot. If Ohio State wins 50% or more, things will look good. If it's less, the Buckeyes are in big trouble.
On special teams, Penn State is an elite unit. They're scoring almost 45% of the time on Man Down, 10% above average for good teams, and allowing just 25%. Both numbers are fantastic, and indicative of how good this team really is on an even playing field. Buckeyes have to be careful.
A lot of the outcome of tomorrow is going to swing on who is healthy. Drew Blanchard, the main FOGO for Ohio State, has missed games due to injury. That area has been a disaster for Ohio State since. Buckeyes got trounced at the dot by Rutgers, and were bailed out by Skylar Wahlund and the defense. That's probably where this game turns. If Blanchard can't go, or isn't fully healthy, this thing is done.
Also of importance is the health of Ari Allen. Allen got into the game against Rutgers for the first time this season, and will be needed if the Buckeyes want to sneak into the national tournament. This Penn State game is the easiest remaining game, it appears, so the stakes are high. If Allen is all the way back, this will be a fun battle. Buckeyes really need another dodger.
Honestly, I just don't see how Blanchard can come back even close to 100%. Even if he plays, I imagine he will be ailing. And, unfortunately, there's no talent there to back him up. Penn State wins the faceoff battle, and the game.
Final prediction: Penn State 14, Ohio State 9.
Go Bucks!
