The season is absolutely flying by. With Air Force on tap for tomorrow, Ohio State will have already completed 29% of its regular season schedule. And we haven’t even hit March yet. Season will be half over by St. Patrick’s Day. Time really flies.
The Falcons of Air Force welcome the Buckeyes to Colorado Springs hoping to get their first win of the season. Losses to Marquette and Denver have put Air Force in a 0-2 hole for this season, and they’ll be hungry to come out of tomorrow’s matchup with a win. Having said that, it’s going to be a tough road for both teams.
Ohio State comes into tomorrow’s game banged up. Again. Bobby Van Buren missed last game with an injury. Gannon Matthews went down painfully early in Q4 against Bellarmine. Kurt Bruun missed the game against Bellarmine also. And, speculating, Tommy Burke might have a knock or injury after not taking draws in Q4 against Bellarmine either. Without Matthews or Burke, Ohio State is DOA.
The Buckeyes sputtered badly down the stretch on Tuesday, though in large part that was due to the backups playing. Still, 4 goals allowed in something under 5 minutes is not going to breed confidence in this group.
Air Force, on the other hand, comes in after leading Denver for much of the contest, with a few caveats. Denver had at least 3 goals waved off for crease violations, which is a lot. Air Force improved from the opener against Marquette, but I don’t think that Denver is as good as advertised.
The Pios haven’t ever gotten back to the heights of 2015, and I don’t know that the draw is there to get the necessary talent to be a consistent Final Four team.
Offensively, Air Force has been poor this year. Neither contest has seen the Falcons break the 10-goal threshold. Attackman Caelan Driggs (#1) leads Air Force with 6 goals, but no player has more than 6 points through 2 games.
Attackman Josh Yago (#10) has 2 goals and 4 assists this season, while Turner Ashby (#377), sits at 3 goals and 2 assists. No other player has more than 2 points.
Strictly speaking, the Buckeyes should be okay defensively tomorrow. Caleb Fyock has been a revelation at goalie, even with the mini-meltdown last game. I don’t think that his defense was anywhere close to good enough to blame Fyock for the 4 goals Bellarmine scored. A lot depends on who is healthy, however.
Defensively, Air Force is fine. They’re not good. They’re not bad. Just adequate. James Chastain (#25), Matt Rosato (#27), and Daniel Enoch (#44) are your likely starters at close defense. Considering they’ve allowed teams to score on 32.4% of shots, and score 1 1.50 goals per game, the Buckeyes shouldn’t have too much trouble putting the ball in net.
That statement is helped by the fact that goalie Quinn Richards (#26) has a save percentage of .477 this year. Ohio State’s getting to face goalies much better than Richards each day in practice, so things should set up nicely for a relatively easy victory.
Even if Tommy Burke were to miss tomorrow, the Buckeyes should be able to at the very least split faceoffs with Air Force. The Falcons currently are winning just 28.3% of their faceoffs this season. It’s only two games, but still.
That is a BAD number. Coleman Kraske got worked against Bellarmine, so we might see Jack Oldman get thrown into the fire if Burke can’t go. We will find out soon enough.
Air Force is adequate on special teams so far, as well. They sport identical marks on Man Up and Man Down, .333, though opponents have gotten twice as many man up opportunities (6) as Air Force has (3). Nothing really jumps out either way in this area.
Realistically, Ohio State should roll Air Force if the Buckeyes have everyone healthy. With a Matthews injury, things would be much harder, but manageable. If Burke and Matthews sit, then things get interesting.
Ohio State still, for unimaginable reasons, can’t get a solid 9 offensive players settled in and on the same page. Alex Marinier was a close defender for 2 years, for pete’s sake. They stifled his offensive development when it was blatantly obvious he would never crack the lineup with the guys recruited before and after him.
Personnel decisions aside, what I would hope to see, if everyone is out, is Marinier, Allen, and Shean initiating, while Magee picks his spots to dodge. McKenna is a shooter, not a ballcarrier. Marinier should only sweep over the top to his right. Caputo is a lefty shooter, let him do that. Tate Jones got a couple of runs, but didn’t register much of anything. Garrett Haas has an opportunity here.
It's all a jumbled mess until next week against UVA, but the Buckeyes have to survive their first road trip to make it there. Hopefully everyone can get healthy, and we see momentum going into next week. Final prediction: Buckeyes 13, Air Force 10.
Go Bucks!
