Ohio State's post season destination is still unclear. There are several questions that have yet to be answered. Will the Buckeyes make the CFP? Which bowl game will they play in? Who will they play? Those questions will be answered Sunday. However, if you're like most fans you want the answer now.
Unfortunately, time travel is not an option. The next best thing is to break down the possible scenarios. At this moment there are several venues and opponents that Ohio State is most likely to play. Let's take a little trip down the what if road.
OHIO STATE MAKES THE CFP, WHO AND WHERE DO THEY PLAY?
If Ohio State makes the CFP they will play in either the Cotton Bowl or the Orange Bowl. Like last season, Ohio State would probably be ranked 4th if they make it in. If Clemson or Alabama is No. 1 the Orange Bowl should b the site. If Oklahoma is No. 1 make travel plans for the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are 1-0 in the Cotton Bowl and 1-1 in the Orange Bowl.
If Ohio State does not make the CFP the likely destinations are the Rose Bowl (7-7), Fiesta Bowl (4-2) or Peach Bowl (never played).
ROSE BOWL BOUND, WHO IS THE OPPONENT?
If chaos does not ensue and Ohio State is invited to the Rose Bowl over Iowa or Michigan State, the Buckeyes could play one of three PAC-12 opponents. Below are the scenarios on how Ohio State would play each team.
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Stanford: The Cardinal win the PAC-12 championship game, but does not make it into the CFP.
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USC: The Trojans defeat Stanford.
- Oregon: Stanford beats USC and the Cardinal qualify for the CFP.
Likely Rose Bowl Opponent: WINNER OF THE STANFORD / USC GAME.
A detailed breakdown of Ohio State's records and results in the Rose Bowl.
| SEASON | OSU RANK | OPP. RANK | SCORE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1920 | CALIFORNIA | 0-28 | L | |
| 1949 | No. 6 | No. 3 CALIFORNIA | 17-14 | W |
| 1954 | No. 1 | No. 17 USC | 20-7 | W |
| 1957 | No. 2 | OREGON | 10-7 | W |
| 1968 | No. 1 | No. 2 USC | 27-16 | W |
| 1970 | No. 2 | No. 12 STANFORD | 17-27 | L |
| 1972 | No. 3 | No. 1 USC | 17-42 | L |
| 1973 | No. 4 | No. 7 USC | 42-21 | W |
| 1974 | No. 3 | No. 5 USC | 17-18 | L |
| 1975 | No. 1 | No. 11 UCLA | 10-23 | L |
| 1979 | No. 1 | No. 3 USC | 16-17 | L |
| 1984 | No. 6 | No. 18 USC | 17-20 | L |
| 1996 | No. 4 | No. 2 ARIZONA STATE | 20-17 | W |
| 2009 | No. 8 | No. 7 OREGON | 26-17 | W |
| RECORD | OSU POINTS | OPP. POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 7-7 | 256 | 274 |
| FAVORITE | 4-5 | 176 | 156 |
| UNDERDOG | 3-1 | 80 | 90 |
| EVEN | 0-1 | 0 | 28 |
| RECORD | SCORE | |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 7-7 | 18-20 |
| FAVORITE | 4-5 | 20-17 |
| UNDERDOG | 3-1 | 20-23 |
| EVEN | 0-1 | 0-28 |
FIESTA BOWL FESTIVITIES IN THE FUTURE? WHO DOES OHIO STATE FACE?
The Fiesta Bowl is a possibility if Ohio State does not make it to the CFP and the Rose Bowl selects the loser between Iowa and Michigan State. In this scenario the Buckeyes could land in the Fiesta Bowl. Who would the opponent be?
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Notre Dame: The Fiesta Bowl is the popular choice for Notre Dame. A rejection from the Rose Bowl should result in the Buckeyes playing the Fighting Irish in Arizona.
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Oklahoma State: The Fiesta Bowl goes with the Big 12 runner-up instead of Notre Dame. OSU versus OSU would be the selling point in this match-up. Remember the Alamo? If not, Ohio State defeated the Cowboys 33-7 in the 2004 Alamo Bowl.
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TCU: If the Fiesta Bowl goes with the Big 12 runner-up TCU could get the call instead Oklahoma State and Notre Dame. If Ohio State and TCU play, be prepared for a sickening amount of The Little Sisters of the Poor references. Consider this the first.
- Oklahoma: Improbable, but if for some reason Oklahoma is denied the CFP the Sooners would play in the Fiesta Bowl. The opponent would be either Ohio State or Notre Dame. This is not happening. Oklahoma is in the CFP.
Likely Fiesta Bowl Opponent: NOTRE DAME.
| SEASON | OSU RANK | OPP. RANK | SCORE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | No. 11 | No. 10 PENN STATE | 19-31 | L |
| 1983 | No. 14 | No. 15 PITT | 28-23 | W |
| 2002* | No. 2 | No. 1 MIAMI | 31-24 OT | W |
| 2003 | No. 7 | No. 8 KANSAS STATE | 35-28 | W |
| 2005 | No. 4 | No. 6 NOTRE DAME | 34-20 | W |
| 2008 | No. 10 | No. 3 TEXAS | 21-24 | L |
| RECORD | OSU POINTS | OPP. POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 4-2 | 168 | 150 |
| FAVORITE | 3-0 | 97 | 71 |
| UNDERDOG | 1-2 | 71 | 79 |
| RECORD | SCORE | |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 4-2 | 28-25 |
| FAVORITE | 3-0 | 32-24 |
| UNDERDOG | 1-2 | 24-26 |
OHIO STATE IN THE PEACH BOWL, WE MIGHT HAVE A PROBLEM
The Peach Bowl happens if Ohio State misses the CFP, the Rose Bowl passes on the Buckeyes and the Fiesta Bowl goes Notre Dame versus Big 12. This is an unlikely outcome, but if it happens who would Ohio State play?
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Houston: We have a problem. This could be a nightmare match-up for Urban Meyer and Ohio State. The Buckeyes would have a lot to lose and very little to gain. Playing in what is perceived to be a lesser bowl against a non Power Five Conference team is a setup for failure. When you combine the story line of Tom Herman to that mix it has the ingredients of an upset.
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Florida State: The Peach Bowl might prefer to have two of the most successful teams of the past 20 years on its field. Ohio State has never defeated Florida State and that fact might be enough to get the Buckeyes up for this bowl game.
- North Carolina: The Peach Bowl selects North Carolina over Florida State because UNC played Clemson well, or defeated the Tigers, but did not make the CFP. Very slim chances that this happens, but you never know.
Likely Peach Bowl Opponent: HOUSTON.
Ohio State has never played in the Peach Bowl.
CHAOS THEORY: OHIO STATE MAKES THE CFP AND PLAYS IN THE ORANGE BOWL
Let's party like it's 2007. The dominoes fall and Ohio State makes the CFP. If the Buckeyes make the CFP they will be a No. 4 seed. Who would they play in the Orange Bowl? How?
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Clemson: Ohio State could play the Tigers in the Orange Bowl if Alabama and Stanford lose. This scenario could happen if just Alabama loses, but I think the committee would select PAC 12 champion Stanford over Ohio State.
- Alabama: Clemson and Stanford lose. Clemson would have to lose an ugly game to North Carolina. One in which the Tar Heels won't gain enough steam to surpass Ohio State, but a loss bad enough for Ohio State to edge out Clemson. Alabama then destroys Florida to gain enough points to gain the No. 1 seed.
| SEASON | OSU RANK | OPP. RANK | SCORE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1976 | No. 11 | No. 12 COLORADO | 27-10 | W |
| 2014 | No. 7 | No. 12 CLEMSON | 35-40 | L |
| RECORD | OSU POINTS | OPP. POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 1-1 | 62 | 50 |
| FAVORITE | 1-1 | 62 | 50 |
| RECORD | SCORE | |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 1-1 | 31-25 |
| FAVORITE | 1-1 | 31-25 |
CHAOS THEORY: OHIO STATE MAKES THE CFP AND PLAYS IN THE COTTON BOWL
Even more chaos for these scenarios to go down. If the Buckeyes make the CFP they will be a No. 4 seed. Who would they play in the Cotton Bowl? How?
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Oklahoma: Ohio State could play the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl if Alabama and Clemson lose. This scenario is more probable if Stanford also loses. Will this happen? I wouldn't put a pop on it.
- Iowa: Clemson and Stanford lose. Iowa dominates Michigan State and looks like the country's best team. Clemson loses an ugly game to North Carolina. One in which the Tar Heels won't gain enough steam to surpass Ohio State, but a loss bad enough for Ohio State to edge out Clemson. Alabama barely beats Florida to gain enough points to gain the No. 1 seed. This scenario is very unlikely, but it could happen.
| SEASON | OSU RANK | OPP RANK | SCORE | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | No. 11 | No. 8 TEXAS A&M | 28-12 | W |
| RECORD | OSU POINTS | OPP. POINTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 1-0 | 28 | 12 |
| FAVORITE | |||
| UNDERDOG | 1-0 | 28 | 12 |
| RECORD | SCORE | |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 1-0 | 28-12 |
| FAVORITE | ||
| UNDERDOG | 1-0 | 28-12 |
| OPPONENT | RECORD | POINTS FOR | POINTS AGAINST | AVERAGE SCORE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALABAMA | 1-2 | 65 | 94 | 22-31 | |
| CLEMSON | 0-2 | 50 | 57 | 25-29 | |
| FLORIDA STATE | 0-1 | 14 | 31 | 14-31 | |
| HOUSTON | |||||
| NORTH CAROLINA | |||||
| NOTRE DAME | 1-0 | 34 | 20 | 34-20 | |
| OKLAHOMA | |||||
| OKLAHOMA STATE | 1-0 | 33 | 7 | 33-7 | |
| OREGON | 3-0 | 78 | 44 | 26-15 | |
| STANFORD | 0-1 | 17 | 27 | 17-27 | |
| TCU | |||||
| USC | 3-4 | 156 | 141 | 22-20 | |
| OVERALL | 9-10 (.474) | 447 | 421 | 24-22 |
Three Things Possible Bowl Opponents
- Ohio State is undefeated against Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Oregon in post season games.
- The Buckeyes have never played Houston, North Carolina, Oklahoma or TCU in a bowl game.
- Ohio State has never defeated Clemson, Florida State or Stanford in a bowl game.
| OPPONENT | RECORD | POINTS FOR | POINTS AGAINST | AVERAGE SCORE | LAST GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALABAMA | 1-3 | 75 | 110 | 19-28 | 42-35 (2015) |
| CLEMSON | 0-2 | 50 | 57 | 25-29 | 35-40 (2014) |
| FLORIDA STATE | 0-3 | 58 | 101 | 19-34 | 14-31 (1998) |
| HOUSTON | 1-0 | 52 | 0 | 52-0 | 52-0 (1994) |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 3-1 | 105 | 42 | 26-11 | 32-7 (1975) |
| NOTRE DAME | 3-2 | 123 | 87 | 25-17 | 34-20 (2006) |
| OKLAHOMA | 1-1 | 52 | 43 | 26-22 | 24-14 (1983) |
| OKLAHOMA STATE | 2-0 | 70 | 20 | 35-10 | 33-7 (2004) |
| OREGON | 9-0 | 232 | 89 | 26-10 | 42-20 (2015) |
| STANFORD | 2-3 | 93 | 95 | 19-19 | 20-23 (1981) |
| TCU | 4-1-1 | 148 | 35 | 25-6 | 37-3 (1973) |
| USC | 9-13-1 | 377 | 404 | 16-18 | 15-18 (2009) |
| TOTAL | 35-29-2 (.545) | 1,435 | 1,083 | 22-16 |
Three Things Opponents All-Time
- Ohio State is undefeated against Houston, Oklahoma State and Oregon.
- The Buckeyes have never defeated Clemson or Florida State.
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Ohio State has a winning record against half of the possible post season opponents.
REMY'S RUMINATIONS
If Ohio State does not get selected for the CFP many people are expecting Ohio State to play Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl or Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Both games would be great and would bring in big ratings. However, if I had my choice I would like to see the Buckeyes play in the Rose Bowl against USC.
Why USC? Because Ohio State has not defeated USC since the 1974 Rose Bowl. I have never witnessed the Buckeyes defeat the Trojans in my lifetime. A victory will also bump Ohio State's record to 8-7 in the Rose Bowl.
With all of that said I'm hoping Dom Deluise's ghost reigns on Saturday and Captain Chaos comes to save the day for Ohio State to make the playoffs.
