As previously posted, these are the teams that control their own destiny for making the playoffs based on 538:

Total Destiny (99%+)

• Georgia
• Alabama
• Oklahoma
• Michigan
• Michigan State

Near Locks (95%+)

• Iowa
• Ohio State
• Auburn

Need Some Help (80-95%)

• Pittsburgh
• Oregon
• Oklahoma State
• Wake Forest
• Baylor

Need More Help (60-80%)

• Cincinnati
• Iowa State
• Minnesota

There's a Chance (20-60%)

• Ole Miss
• Notre Dame
• Texas A&M
• NC State
• SMU
• Penn State
• Oregon State

Some interesting notes here - with Oregon's win, Ohio State drops slightly from >99% to 98% and falls out of the "Total Destiny" category. There are a few nightmare situations that can doom Ohio State. Oregon winning out alongside Ohio State would lower OSU to 92%, so if those two are competing for the last spot, it would be hard to deny the Ducks. Many Buckeye fans are rooting for the Ducks, but the fewer teams in competition for a potential last spot helps Ohio State more than any strength of loss argument.

Cincinnati's close win against a bad Navy team is certainly hurting their chances. Anyone who watched that game and thought "This is a top 4 team in the country" deserves to have their head examined.

Oklahoma continues to fall asleep in the first half before turning it on. It's looking more and more likely that we'll get to see another bad team make the playoffs from the state of Oklahoma and get blown out by a real team.

My top 4 teams (purely on current strength):

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State

3. Alabama

4. Michigan

(Mod Edit: Moved to the College Sports Forum.)