The offense looked unstoppable for months. Their statistics were comparable to 2019 LSU, with Stroud performing at the level of Joe Burrow. They were scoring 40 points in the first half with almost no trouble. Now, they are struggling to score in the red zone. They can’t score 30 in a full game against a 3-7 Nebraska. What’s going on? Why have they been struggling?

Here is a play-by-play analysis:

After the Oregon game, the offense stalled in the red zone. This can happen every once in a while. The quarterback is new, and the offensive line was completely new in configuration. Then, the Penn State happened six games later. It was a little concerning, but an offense can have a rough day at any time. Sometimes a defense schemes something up that is unexpected, and an offense can’t adjust. Penn State played a different defense than the Buckeyes were ready for, and it fooled them. It happens.

Then this game happened.

With the red zone issues appearing in 33% of games, it no longer seems to be something that happens every once in a while. The inability to score touchdowns in the red zone against competent defenses is now a genuine problem. On the bright side, Ohio State will get to see only competent defenses from now on, and they will absolutely exploit this. This means that the Buckeye offense will get lots of practice to get better! Yay!

I saw a lot of people online point to the play-calling as the central issue for why the offense has been sputtering. Last week it was the over reliance on running the ball, and this week it was a failure to establish the run. After grading both of those games, I have to disagree. While I thought they sometimes ran into a stacked box too much last week, for the most part, their plays have made a lot of sense. The execution on offense, particularly with the offensive line, has been rough. The run-blocking in particular has been a disaster.

Kyle Jones talked about what Ryan Day did to combat this during the game; he called more gap blocking plays like Buck Sweep and Counter Trey instead of just running Split Zone, Inside Zone, Mid Zone, and Outside Zone.

This was especially important as not only did Ohio State have trouble blocking zone run calls, but Nebraska had Ohio State’s base plays downloaded. They expected Ohio State to run Split Zone, so instead of the defensive end trying to force a handoff, the end dove inside to disrupt the middle. Normally, to prevent teams from doing this, Ohio State also runs Split Flow, where the tight end passes up a block, and instead runs a flat route on a play action. Whenever you see Stroud rolling out after a play action with a wide open Ruckert in the flat, they just ran Split Flow. Nebraska was ready though, with the overhang defender that would chip and follow the tight end out on his pattern, which effectively shut down the play.

To get around this, they ran an RPO off Split Zone action, which allowed Stroud to throw it to Smith-Njigba on a slant if the linebacker that was responsible for the hook-curl zone crashed on the run. Kyle Jones’ article talks more about this in detail. Regardless, I did not think that the play-calling was the biggest issue.

Here is the offensive chart:

The players that earned a champion grade for me were Henderson, Olave, Smith-Njigba, and Fleming. Ohio State also named Wypler, Munford, and Dawand Jones as champions but did not include Olave. Here is the receiving chart:

I thought that all three starting receivers was excellent. Smith-Njigba was obviously the biggest bright spot on the offense. His record-setting game was well-earned, as he was constantly open and did damage after the catch. He played as well as a receiver could play, and he was the primary beneficiary of the RPOs of which there were too many to name.

Fleming played well too. He crushed some defensive blocks with his blocking, and he made a couple of nice catches. I am also including the catch he had that was not counted by the officials. I saw it, you saw it, and it was real. He looked great. His play portends good things for next year once Olave and Wilson leave.

I also graded Olave a champion, as I thought he did a nice job of getting open, and he had a couple of great blocks on Smith-Njigba’s long touchdown. Again, I don’t have the All-22, but from what I saw, I think Olave deserved a champion grade. Another touchdown or two would have definitely earned it for him, which were open if the offensive line didn’t fall apart.

Speaking of which, the offensive line struggled again, and I have to disagree with champion grades for Wypler, Munford, and Dawand Jones. Wypler has a slight case for the fumble recovery alone. Dawand Jones probably played the best of any offensive linemen, but it still wasn’t particularly great. If this team wants to reach their potential, the blocking issues have to be solved, and soon. Right now, they might be the worst performing unit on the team, despite arguably having the most talent. The coaching staff needs to figure this out within the next couple of weeks. Potentially even by next week. The pass blocking has been okay, but they had huge miscommunication issues at critical times, with two sacks occurring in the red zone, and pressure in the red zone causing incompletions and checkdown throws instead of Stroud being able to run the play. Their struggles with zone schemes are particularly pronounced, which is why they switched to Counter Trey and Buck Sweep as the game went on. Day helped them a bit by calling more RPOs, which was effective for most of the field, but it wasn’t enough in the red zone when the safeties played down. Their performance hamstrings the calls that Day can make throughout a game. Until their blocking improves, expect the offensive struggles to continue.

The running backs didn’t do a ton. The offensive-line made it difficult to try and run their way to a victory, but all of the RPOs did have the option to run as well. Since the linebackers crashed quite a bit, Stroud threw it to Smith-Njigba quite a bit. When Henderson did get a chance, he was fairly productive. He still has some issues with his vision and patience, but I thought he did a good job of dodging unblocked defenders, and he got a lot more than most running backs would have in the same circumstance. His run on 3rd and 2 near the goal line (2Q 7:38) was a good example of his ability to beat a defender at the line of scrimmage, and his 22-yard run (4Q 4:03) showcased his speed in defeating an unblocked defender in the backfield.

Here is Stroud’s chart:

This was the most RPOs that Stroud has been asked to do in a single game. He’s proficient with these reads, and he hits his receivers in Stroud which lets them get yards after the catch. While it’s only been used in one game, the fact that Day had this many RPOs installed in the offense is worth noting. RPOs is the base of many of the modern offenses across the sport, and Day used it almost as a fourth pitch – something to only be used if the rest has already been shown. This offense is remarkably diverse compared to offenses from Ohio State in the pass.

I don’t think his overall play was that bad, but he didn’t grade out that well overall because he made mistakes at particularly bad times. Furthermore, the offense in this game all revolved around his ability to make the right decisions and make consistently good plays. He’s pretty inexperienced to be the single most important person on the entire team, but the quarterback position has that responsibility. Every mistake of his was amplified.

His first interception wasn’t that bad. If Smith-Njigba doesn’t slip on the turf, I think he could have made the catch. Additionally, if you are a quarterback, you are expecting your receiver to be able to shake a linebacker. The linebacker jumped the route (as he was reading Stroud’s eyes), and Smith-Njigba got beat by the turf.

As an aside, I think Ohio State fans should become Field Condition Complainers, as Michigan fans have the reputation as the Referee Complainers. I don’t know why I thought this would be a good idea, but I wrote down in my notes for the game, “it would be unique and hella goofy.” Just something to think about. I will be tracking turf issues from now on to craft the world that I envision.

Regardless, Stroud’s second interception was bad, and his fumble was catastrophic. I know both of these plays involved Olave having a step, and the pressure that Stroud was facing kind of blew up the play. Still, he needs to know when to take his lumps. Olave was wide open earlier in the game too, but pressure forced him to hit the checkdown (1Q 13:11).

I have more confidence in Stroud that most people do. I think he’s played really well. He still makes freshmen mistakes. Improved play from the offensive line will allow him to show off how good he can be when he is given time. Also, I don’t care if he doesn’t run much. He’s made many plays by keeping his eyes downfield. He has also scrambled this year when necessary. I like the instinct to try to make a throw, especially since coverages break down the longer a play goes.

What should we worry about moving forward? The offensive line as a whole. I would be a little surprised if they managed to fix it over the next couple of weeks. Studrawa hasn’t had the same kind of run-blocking success that Warinner had (though Stud’s lines have been excellent pass blocking), so it might not get fixed this year. If they can’t, the Big Ten is in doubt, much less the National Championship. The good news is if they can fix it, the team doesn’t have a ton of other easily exploitable flaws. Also, if they can win out in the Big Ten, they will have bowl practices to plug up some of the holes in the line.

The future opponents are also worthy of worry. Ohio State has had their biggest issues on offense against the best defenses on the schedule. It’s also not minor, either. They were scoring 40 in a half against the weak teams on the schedule, and now they are struggling scoring 30 points in an entire game. That’s an enormous drop off. All of the defenses they will face from now on are ranked in the top 30 of the SP+ rankings. Improvement against Purdue would go a long way toward fixing this team’s issues.

What should we not worry about? C.J. Stroud. Stroud’s played well, but he is asked to do a lot. Fields was not relied on nearly this much at the same point in his career, and he was the best quarterback to ever play at Ohio State, if you ask me.

We shouldn’t worry about the play-calling either. Ryan Day was creative in getting around the weakness of the offensive line. He’s figured out ways to even up the box without putting Stroud at risk with read option variations. Also, at this point, he has a proven track record of being one of the best play-callers in the country.

The offense is still in good shape compared to the rest of the country, and we probably shouldn’t worry about them with respect to the rest of the country. They are still the #1 offense according to SP+ by a wide margin, and it isn’t particularly close. Offense is down across college football. Defenses are starting to catch up. The 3-man front defenses (especially the 3-3-5 404 Tite front) have been slowing down high powered offenses for the last couple of years, with Iowa State perhaps being the team that pioneered it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the years of absurd high-flying offensive play fade.

What should we get excited about? The wide receivers of the future. Fleming and Harrison were more than serviceable, and both of those guys are going to be excellent, All-B1G type guys in the future. Also, Smith-Njigba still has another year with OSU, which should be (is?) a war crime.

Archive

Offense vs. Oregon / Defense vs. Oregon

Offense vs. Tulsa / Defense vs. Tulsa

Offense vs. Akron / Defense vs. Akron

Offense vs. Rutgers / Defense vs. Rutgers

Offense vs. Maryland / Defense vs. Maryland

Mid-Season Review

Offense vs. Indiana / Defense vs. Indiana

Offense vs. Penn State/ Defense vs. Penn State

This series is inspired by Upon Further Review from MgoBlog. If you want to read their latest entry against Indiana, it is located here.