I know nobody is really in the mood, but the sun has risen in Columbus, and it’s a pretty interesting playoff path lining up. If conference championship games are chalk, I think it lands at:
- 1. *Oregon (13-0) v OSU/IU
- 2. *Texas (12-1) v TN/UGA
- 3. *SMU (12-1) v ND/Miami
- 4. *Arizona State (11-2) v PSU/BSU
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- 5. Penn State (11-2) vs. 12. *Boise State (12-1)
- 6. Notre Dame (11-1) vs. 11. Alabama (9-3)
- 7. Tennessee (10-2) vs. 10. Georgia (10-3)
- 8. Ohio State (10-2) vs. 9. Indiana (11-1)
First Out
- Miami (10-2)
- South Carolina (9-3)
- Ole Miss (9-3)
- BYU (10-2)
In my opinion, the only question in the top 4 is whether Boise could land ahead of the Big 12 champion. With ASU coming on strong and a chance to get a more respected win (ISU vs UNLV), I think they jump Boise for the bye.
For the home game hosting section, I tried to balance ESPN strength of record, losses, and whether your extra loss is in an extra game (I.e. Penn State). Even being conservative, I think we almost have to host a home game. They’d either have to put a team we smashed or a 3 loss team ahead of us, which feels unlikely.
I gave Tennessee the edge because SOR has them 7 and us 8, but our best win (PSU) is better than theirs (Bama), and we have an equally bad loss (UM, Arkansas). The committee has said they won’t avoid rematches so I have UGA/TN and OSU/IU round 2. Swapping those is equally plausible.
So, if we win and the rest is chalky, our path amazingly looks like either B1G redux (IU->Oregon->PSU) or SEC (UGA->Texas->TN).
I’d rather get out of the B1G, but a plausible path to the title game of 2 teams we beat and one we lost by 1 on the road to… very interesting.
