Best Case-Worst Case: Big Ten Tournament Seeding

It comes at the same time every year, and it never gets old.

March Madness.

We anticipate it every season. Some take sick days at work, while others simply ignore the job even when they’re in the office. Spreadsheets give way to brackets, and from coast to coast we embrace it.

There is no equal in sports. The Super Bowl might be the biggest annual event, but nothing rivals the excitement of the basketball played during the month of March. Sure, the NCAA Tournament and Final Four are the headline events. Conference tournaments also provide thrills, though.

The Big Ten has proven over the past two months that it tops all comers. Its games are the most competitive and its teams are the best. Those factors make this season’s Big Ten Tournament in Chicago ultra intriguing.

With less than two full weeks remaining in the conference schedule, we run down where teams stand and how the last couple weeks might shake out.

Illinois

There might be no other team in the country that has so many great wins combined with head-scratching losses quite like Illinois. The Fighting Illini won at Gonzaga, defeated Butler in Hawaii en route to the Maui Invitational title, embarrassed Ohio State and knocked off top-ranked Indiana in dramatic fashion.

But the losses have mounted. Illinois started the season 12-0. Over the past 15 games, the Illini are 7-8, including a 6-7 mark in the Big Ten. Still, they are in position to make the NCAA Tournament due to their marquee wins. The final five games will continue to test Illinois, but an NCAA berth would make them a dangerous squad to face.

BEST CASE SEED: 5
WORST CASE SEED: 8

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Illinois has appeared in the Big Ten Tournament championship game six times, winning twice. In the tournament’s second year of existence, the 11th-seeded Illini made an improbable journey to the title game, but fell short of becoming the only last-place major conference team to win its conference tournament. Nine years later, Illinois lost again in the championship game, this time as the 10 seed.

Indiana

IU's Jordan Hulls is automatic in the yellow.

Ever since a last-second loss at Illinois, Indiana has looked like the best team in the country. Last night’s victory at Michigan State, the Hoosiers’ first in East Lansing in more than 20 years, solidified their case as No. 1. That’s the spot they began the season and, ultimately, might end the season.

It’s been a long, arduous road back to the top, but head coach Tom Crean has Indiana poised for return to college basketball’s mountaintop. Simply being in the Big Ten has prepared Indiana for what lies ahead in the postseason. The Hoosiers are now in the driver’s seat for a Big Ten championship, but they must travel to Michigan on the final day of the regular season.

BEST CASE SEED: 1
WORST CASE SEED: 2

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Surprisingly, the Big Ten’s most successful basketball program has never won the conference tournament. In fact, Indiana has only reached the final game once, losing to Iowa in 2001. There’s a high probability that could change this season.

Iowa

Before the season even began, Iowa was a trendy pick to be the Big Ten’s surprise team. Those predictions were wavering until the past couple weeks. Iowa is now 6-7 in the conference and winners of three straight with several winnable games left. Suddenly, the Hawkeyes are on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A 9-9 conference record could get them in the Big Dance for the first time since 2006. First comes the Big Ten Tournament, though, and Iowa is quietly positioning itself to make a run. Roy Marble and Aaron White have given Iowa fans and head coach Fran McCaffery reason to smile about the future.

BEST CASE SEED: 5
WORST CASE SEED: 8

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: The Hawkeyes enjoyed plenty of success in the early years of the tournament, but have gone dormant ever since. They’ve been victors twice and lost in the championship game once. In 2001, when Iowa defeated Indiana in the title game, it became the lowest seed – 6 – to win the conference tournament, a mark that remains.

Michigan

It’s been a return to the late '80s and early '90s for Michigan – a period of great success. The Wolverines won a national championship and were twice the national runner-up in a five-year span. That caliber of team is back in Ann Arbor. But just as things were getting good – namely, a No. 1 ranking – the brakes are starting to pump. Michigan has lost three of five with the two wins being squeakers.

Still, Michigan is clearly an elite team in a year where the race for the national championship is wide open. A top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament is guaranteed. But like Ohio State, ranked opponents have given the Wolverines fits all season. They’ll play plenty more in the postseason.

BEST CASE SEED: 1
WORST CASE SEED: 5

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Michigan won the first-ever Big Ten Tournament, which was later vacated, and has not appeared in the championship game since. However, they'll always have this.

Michigan State

The loss to Indiana last night greatly hampered Michigan State’s chances at winning the regular-season conference championship. But Tom Izzo has another stellar group. And as the college basketball universe is well aware, they always seem to play their best in the postseason.

This weekend the Spartans have a monumental game at Ohio State that will have significant postseason ramifications. If Michigan State loses, it's suddenly reeling after being the No. 4 team in the country. A win rights the ship with March approaching.

BEST CASE SEED: 1
WORST CASE SEED: 5

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: The defending champions, Michigan State has won the Big Ten Tournament three times, posting a perfect 3-0 in title game appearances.

Minnesota

The Tubby Shake

Did somebody say free fall? Because that’s exactly what Minnesota is currently in. It could stop Wednesday night against Ohio State. If it doesn’t, though, Tubby Smith’s team is in danger of another second-half meltdown ending its NCAA Tournament hopes. Indiana is the opponent following the Buckeyes.

Once 15-1, Minnesota has lost its way. There’s not one player or coach to blame. It’s been a collective effort.

BEST CASE SEED: 5
WORST CASE SEED: 8

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Minnesota has reached the finals once, losing to Ohio State in the most lopsided tournament title game. But they do have the Blake Hoffarber miracle to fall back on.

Nebraska

The first season in the Big Ten was not kind to Nebraska, and Year 2 hasn’t been much nicer. The Cornhuskers are currently 3-10 in the conference, one spot from the cellar. Two of those victories have come against last-place Penn State with the other against Northwestern. The rest of the schedule doesn’t present any sure wins, so Nebraska will likely stay in 11th place.

BEST CASE SEED: 10
WORST CASE SEED: 12

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Little. In one game, Purdue walloped the Huskers last season.

Northwestern

The past three seasons looked like they could be the one that finally ended the Wildcats' absence from the NCAA Tournament. But late-season losses doomed the Cinderella story each time. This season will take a run through the Big Ten Tournament to achieve that ever-elusive goal. Northwestern has several swing games left this season that could help or hurt its seed, but the Wildcats will definitely face four days in Chicago.

BEST CASE SEED: 8
WORST CASE SEED: 11

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: Bad. Northwestern has needed one or two wins in the Big Ten Tournament multiple times to secure its first invitation to the NCAA Tournament. As you already know, the Wildcats came away empty-handed each time.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are in the midst of their lowest moment of the season. Once ranked No. 4, Ohio State now sits at 18th. But that isn’t the whole story: Ohio State has lost three of its last four games, dropping to 8-5 in the conference. That places them in fifth place, one game behind Wisconsin.

Why that’s important is because the Buckeyes are in danger of not earning a first-round bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The top four seeds are guaranteed one day off, meaning games on three consecutive days instead of four.

With no gimmies left on the schedule, Ohio State must play some of its best basketball of the season to ensure one day off in Chicago. One way or another, though, Wisconsin looks like a likely opponent. If the Buckeyes are the No. 5 seed, they'll play Penn State in the first round with the 4 seed awaiting them, likely to be the Badgers. There is much debate about getting that first-round bye, but being the 5 isn't so bad because you have such a high probability of winning your first game. If you're the 4, you might go winless at the tournament. 

BEST CASE SEED: 3
WORST CASE SEED: 7

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: The Big Ten Tournament has only been in existence 15 years, with the league being one of the final conferences to embrace the idea of a postseason tournament – the Ivy League is the lone holdout – but no team has enjoyed as much success as Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won the tournament four times and finished runners-up on four occasions. In six of the past seven years, Ohio State has appeared in the championship game.

Penn State

It's gotten this bad.

Well, the No. 12 seed is almost sewn up. No one likes talking bad about others, but there is no sugarcoating how bad Penn State is this season. Five games separate the Nittany Lions from an infamous place in history.

O-fer seasons in major conferences are very rare, but Penn State has the game – or lack thereof – to pull off the all-time picture of futility. A trip to Northwestern and return home with a loss is likely all that stands between Penn State and 0-18.

While Ohio State might not like playing on the first day of the Big Ten Tournament, it probably won’t mind picking up a win over the Nittany Lions.

BEST CASE SEED: 11
WORST CASE SEED: 12

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: There aren’t a whole lot of positive basketball memories in Penn State’s history. It did advance to the Final Four in 1954 and the Sweet 16 in 2001, but that’s about all the NCAA Tournament success Penn State has. The Big Ten Tournament highlights are even thinner. The Nittany Lions advanced to the semifinals in 2001 and lost to Ohio State in the title game in 2011.

Purdue

It’s been a rebuilding year since the first day of practice for Purdue. Head coach Matt Painter has lost a wealth of talent in recent seasons and is now in that in-between process. The final weeks of the season will be a race to reach the NIT. Some teams are unhappy to be there, but the Boilermakers would be one that took it serious and used it as momentum heading into next season.

BEST CASE SEED: 7
WORST CASE SEED: 10

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: The other team that plays basketball in the state of Indiana has had a much brighter tournament experience. The Boilermakers are 1-1 in championship games, winning the title in front of their homestate fans in 2009 at Conseco Fieldhouse.

Wisconsin

The Badgers have never finished lower than fourth in the conference standings during Bo Ryan’s career, a remarkable streak of consistency. It looks like that level of success will remain intact once again. Entering the homestretch of the season, Wisconsin has arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the Big Ten. A 4-1 record is likely, with 5-0 a possibility. The outcome isn’t always pretty, but Wisconsin wins way more games than it loses.

BEST CASE SEED: 2
WORST CASE SEED: 5

B1G TOURNAMENT HISTORY: A once completely inept program, Wisconsin basketball’s place in the sport is startling. During the 15-year history of the Big Ten Tournament, the Badgers have won the championship twice and lost in the final game on two other occasions.