Ohio State's up-and-down 2015-16 season continues Tuesday night when the Buckeyes welcome Northwestern to Value City Arena. Ohio State is attempting to stop a two-game losing streak.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (16-8, 4-7) | Value City Arena | 8 p.m. | BTN |
The Buckeyes need to do just that, too, as Tuesday marks the beginning of a four-game stretch where a loss would all but eliminate Ohio State's already-slim NCAA tournament hopes.
The Buckeyes play the Wildcats, Rutgers, Michigan and Nebraska over the next four games before closing out the season with Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan State again. There are still several opportunities for signature wins down the stretch, but after missed chances against Maryland and Wisconsin, a loss to a struggling Northwestern team would be devastating.
Ohio State opened as a five-point favorite over the visiting Wildcats so it's a game the Buckeyes simply must have.
“I think, for me, the importance is for us to go out and play as well as we can play," Ohio State head coach Thad Matta said Monday. "I want to see the carryover from what we’ve been doing in practice and carry that into the game [Tuesday] night and just have that mentality that we’re going to play well and we’re going to play well for 40 minutes.”
Opponent Breakdown
It has been a difficult Big Ten season to date for Northwestern, which finally snapped a five-game conference losing streak its last time out with an 82-58 victory against Minnesota last Thursday. The Gophers are still winless in Big Ten play, but after the Wildcats saw their 3-2 league start quickly fall to 3-7, the win was crucial.
Not a ton has changed for Northwestern since its first meeting against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats are still led by guards Bryant McIntosh and Tre Demps. McIntosh is the team's leading scorer at 14.8 points per game and is second in the Big Ten averaging 6.6 assists per contest. Demps is also averaging 14.8 points per game and leads the league in minutes, averaging 36.6 per game.
Northwestern is still going to shoot a ton of 3-pointers — the Wildcats lead the Big Ten with 582 attempts from downtown this season — but the lone difference is the return of center Alex Olah, who missed the first meeting this season between these two teams due to injury. Olah averages 10.6 points and 5.0 rebounds per game.
"They’re a team that as we played them in Game 1, they’re going to take a lot of 3s. Half their shots in Game 1 were 3s and they’ve been known to do that," Matta said. "We’re definitely going to have to guard the 3-point line. But a couple different actions, that sort of thing, but nothing major.”
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State had opportunities in its last two games — both losses — but failed execution down the stretch cost the Buckeyes a pair of wins they desperately could have used.
It was multiple defensive lapses that cost Ohio State its last time out in a 79-68 loss at Wisconsin. The Badgers connected on 12 3-pointers — most of which were wide open — and shot nearly 50 percent from the field for the entire game.
The Buckeyes did get one of their better performances of the season from freshman guard JaQuan Lyle, though, who scored a game-high 27 points off the bench. It's possible Lyle's performance places him back in the starting lineup, but Matta was non-committal to any lineup changes heading into Tuesday night.
Ohio State also needs to get more production from its lone junior, Marc Loving, who is averaging only 8.2 points while shooting 25.9 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range over the last six games.
“I think it’s just everybody has to go in with the same mindset. Don’t think about it, don’t go out there and be nervous. Let the game come to you," sophomore forward Jae'Sean Tate said. "I think the rest will handle itself because this team practices extremely hard. We put in so much time, there’s no reason for us not all to play great at the same time.”
How It Plays Out
The Buckeyes led the majority of the way in the first game and got a huge performance off the bench from Kam Williams, who poured in a game-high 21 points. But Ohio State also locked down on Demps and McIntosh holding Northwestern's dynamic backcourt to a combined 22 points.
It was the Buckeyes' effort on Demps in particular that helped lead the way as the senior guard was just 3-for-17 from the floor and finished with only seven points. As a team, the Wildcats made just 6-of-25 tries from behind the 3-point line.
Northwestern is going to shoot a lot of triples and if Ohio State's perimeter defense is anything like it was in its loss to Wisconsin, the Wildcats might be able to pull an upset if they get hot. But you have to imagine the Buckeyes have tightened things up a bit at that end of the floor.
Ohio State shoots the ball much better at home than it does on the road, and even though this could wind up being a tricky game for the Buckeyes, I'd be surprised if it wasn't a victory for Ohio State even if it is close the entire way.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 71, Northwestern 61
