Ohio State has finally put together a couple of quality in-conference wins the last couple of weeks with victories over Michigan and No. 8 Iowa. Standing at 19-11 overall, Thad Matta’s crew stands a much better chance of reaching 20 victories (again) than it did a few weeks ago.
Additionally, the Buckeyes have reached the magic number of 11 conference wins. Since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, no eligible team with as many Big Ten victories has missed the dance. But don’t take my word for that statistic.
#OhioState picks up 11th #B1G win vs #Iowa. No eligible team has missed NCAA tourney with 11+ #B1G wins since tournament expanded in 1985
— BTNStatsGuys (@BTNStatsGuys) February 28, 2016
Matta, in what is perhaps his best coaching performance since joining Ohio State, has gotten his young team to the bubble with one game remaining on the road against Sparty. He’s done this despite losing the team’s emotional leader for the year prior to that Iowa match-up. An unlikely win at the Izzone might (and should) cement the team’s postseason plans. It would show a team peaking at the right time, which the selection committee loves, and give Ohio State yet another meaningful win, and its first in a true road game.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Winning at the Breslin Center is no easy task and it doesn’t seem likely that William Buford is walking through the door to do this:
Ohio State could still get into the NCAA tourney with a loss at East Lansing and a win or two in the B1G Tournament. But would the Buckeyes be better served by squeaking into March Madness or by potentially making a deep run in the National Invitational Tournament? Let’s take a look at the pros and cons.
NIT
Ohio State is, as noted above, a young team. With no seniors and one junior, this squad can use as much experience as it can get. Playing a few extra pressure games this season could pay big dividends next year. The Buckeyes could even end up winning the whole darn thing and gaining a huge boost of confidence and momentum heading into the 2016-17 season, when it won’t be as green. There’s also a good possibility for Ohio State to host a game or two, giving fans additional chances to catch the team this season and provide a bit of a home court advantage. And, although this is far from certain, it’s possible the Buckeyes could host one of those games at venerable St. John Arena. If you’ve never seen a game there, this might literally be the biggest of all items on the “pro” side of the ledger.
On the other hand, going to the NIT doesn’t necessarily mean Ohio State will have a deep run. Other teams with disappointing seasons have gone into the NIT and fizzled quickly due to an apathy about the tournament. An early loss, especially at home, could have the opposite effect on a young, impressionable team. Instead of entering 2016-17 with some swagger, the Buckeyes might have to rebuild their team psyche during the non-conference schedule should they flame out of the NIT in the early rounds. Given how this team has played at times this year, and holding that Big Ten target on their backs, that is a distinct possibility.
NCAA
The Buckeyes haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since the 2007-08 season, when they won the NIT. It was the only time since Matta’s first season that Ohio State hasn’t reached the dance. By making the NCAA for an eighth consecutive year, Matta can use his streak on the recruiting trail. Recruits care about playing in it and, as such, another appearance can serve as an advantage over teams that have been in and out of the tournament over the same time period. The NCAA tournament carries more prestige, even when exiting early, than the NIT.
Conversely, it won’t help the young team develop much if the Buckeyes flame out in the opening round of the dance. If they do it in spectacular fashion, it could actually be somewhat detrimental on the recruiting trail, akin to losing a bowl game by 30 or 40 points. A lot of recruits will overlook one bad result but some won’t. It would also be the third straight year Ohio State crashed out in the first or second round, which would give other schools — which have reached the tournament’s second weekend the last few seasons — a leg up on elite recruits.
Verdict
On the whole, I’d rather see Ohio State make the NCAA tournament than flourish in the NIT. Putting it into football terms, some people would rather the Buckeyes stay home than end up in some small, embarrassing bowl game where the stands are mostly empty and the opponent isn’t exciting. Not me. I’d rather have the football team in a bowl game every season, even if it isn’t a top tier game against an attractive opponent. With the proliferation of bowl games, it’s more embarrassing to miss the postseason than to play a Sun Belt school in Shreveport.
Similarly, I like the prestige of making the NCAAs year after year, even if the team doesn’t catch lightning and advance deep into the tournament. Playing on this kind of a stage will help Ohio State’s young team grow, even if it learns its lessons in a loss.
Give me the big dance, every time.
