Stop us if you've heard this one before.
Ohio State desperately needs a win.
At 0–4 in the Big Ten and coming off an embarrassing 89–66 loss at Wisconsin, the Buckeyes return home to play Michigan State on Sunday. Ohio State is one of two teams still searching for its first league win — Rutgers is the other — and the league-leading Spartans are surely going to make things difficult for the Buckeyes, who need some sort of spark to turn this abysmal Big Ten start around.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State (12-6, 4-1 B1G) | Value City Arena | 1:30 p.m. | CBS |
"The mindset is we've just got to get ready for Michigan State," Ohio State junior forward Jae'Sean Tate said Saturday. "They're a good opponent. It'd be a good win under our belts if we come out and play the way we know we can play. We've been in situations this year where we've shown that we can be a top-tier team and these last couple of weeks we've just gotten away from that.
"It's a quick turnaround. We've only got two days to prep, but we're trying our best to get back to what we were doing and trying to get a win."
Let's break down Sunday's matchup between the Buckeyes and Spartans a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
This is a totally different Michigan State team than Tom Izzo is accustomed to coaching. But after a brutal start — the Spartans began 4–4, played a difficult schedule and lost to Northeastern — Izzo's side might just be rounding into form.
So while the way the team is constructed may be different, Michigan State contending in the Big Ten is certainly not.
The Spartans are freshman-heavy this year and led by a potential lottery pick in Miles Bridges. Bridges missed some time earlier this season with an ankle sprain, but the freshman wing has since returned and leads Michigan State in scoring at 14.5 points per game.
But it's not just Bridges that makes this team unique. It's the other members of Michigan State's 2016 class that are finally starting to adjust to the college level that has the Spartans playing a bit better of late.
Nick Ward — a Columbus-area product — has been arguably Michigan State's best player in conference play. The 6-foot-8, 250-pound big man is averaging 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per league contest. Point guard Cassius Winston (5.0 ppg., 5.6 apg. in Big Ten play) and guard Josh Langford (6.8 ppg.) are seeing increased roles, as well.
"They're a very, very deep team," Ohio State head coach Thad Matta said. "They're Michigan State. They're going to be physical, defend, push the ball in transition. They've got their actions they run and they run them very well and they're going to rebound the basketball and do that very well."
The likes of Denzel Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello are no longer in East Lansing, but some familiar names — Eron Harris (9.8 ppg.), Tum Tum Nairn (6.8 ppg., 3.6 apg.) and Matt McQuaid still remain.
Michigan State ranks 42nd overall in Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings. The Spartans rank 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.0 points per 100 possessions) but just 89th in adjusted offensive efficiency (108.6 points per 100 possessions).
Points figure to be a bit hard to come by Sunday afternoon.
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State certainly had an opportunity to win each of its first three games in the Big Ten. Thursday's game at Wisconsin was a completely different story, however.
It's not that the Buckeyes lost at the Kohl Center in Madison. That happens to plenty of teams and the Badgers have won 17-straight home conference games in that arena. The way in which Ohio State lost, though, was the concerning part.
"I think a big factor in the Wisconsin game was just toughness. They were a lot tougher than we were," freshman center Micah Potter said. "[Friday] in practice, that was the main focus: getting us tougher."
The Buckeyes hung their hats on the defensive end of the floor during the nonconference season. But in Big Ten play, Ohio State allowed each of its opponents to score at least 75 points and the Buckeyes rank 11th in defensive efficiency during league play allowing an eye-opening 113.6 points per 100 possessions.
For a team that's struggled all season on the offensive end of the floor, that's a big problem.
"We just haven't been as tough as we have in the past," Tate said. "We're not doing all the little things that make us a good team. Why? I'm not sure. But all I know is we've got to turn it around quick. Coach Matta has tried to prepare us because Michigan State is a tough team and if we don't come out from the start with the competitive attitude and just playing hard, it's not going to be good."
Ohio State is all the way down to No. 58 overall in KenPom — its lowest rating of the season. The Buckeyes' offense continues to struggle and ranks just 84th nationally at 109.2 points per 100 possessions. With the dip in Big Ten play, Ohio State's defense now ranks just 56th in the country (97.1 points per 100 possessions).
How It Plays Out
One team has won five of its last six while the other has four-straight losses so these are two teams clearly going in different directions at the moment. The Spartans are trending up; the Buckeyes are quickly doing the opposite.
Ohio State played three of its first four league games on the road so the Buckeyes are certainly excited to play in their own gym. Like most teams, Ohio State plays better at home, but the Buckeyes already dropped a pair at Value City Arena this season so it's certainly not the world's greatest homecourt advantage.
Right now, it's hard to pick Ohio State — especially after its performance Thursday night. KenPom projects the Buckeyes to get their first Big Ten win of the season, however, as it gives Ohio State a 58 percent chance to get a victory and projects a two-point win for the home team.
At this point, though, the Buckeyes have to prove they're capable of winning one against a quality opponent.
Tim's prediction: Michigan State 68, Ohio State 66
