A 20-15 record with one win in the Big Ten tournament and an upset victory in the NCAA tournament this past season signified strength in Chris Holtmann’s process at Ohio State. It meant he had the program headed in the right direction. For the second year in a row, the Buckeyes surpassed low expectations.
As they enter their third season under Holtmann, repeating that level of success would be viewed as a disappointment.
Ohio State will add the top recruiting class in the Big Ten, comprised of three top-50 prospects, to a roster that returns four starters, including Kaleb Wesson, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder entering his third collegiate season. Luther Muhammad, Duane Washington Jr. and Justin Ahrens each played extended minutes as freshmen and have now spent a full year developing in college. C.J. Walker, a Florida State transfer, will become eligible to play after sitting out last season.
Buoyed by the infusion of talent and return of key players, the 2019-20 season represents the next step in a program that just turned what was effectively a rebuilding year into an NCAA tournament appearance.
So, what’s fair to expect next season?
In Holtmann’s first season, Ohio State tied Purdue for second place in the Big Ten. Last season, the team tied for eighth place, finishing in the bottom half of the conference. With one of the conference’s best crops of young talent, it should aim for a top-four finish in the Big Ten, with any finish below sixth not up to par.
Regardless of where the Buckeyes rank in the conference, they should be a top-25 team.
Ohio State made the NCAA tournament in both of their first two seasons, achieving Holtmann’s goal of having his players taste March Madness as quickly as possible. So it’ll no longer be a notable achievement just to earn a bid into the field of 68, which it was the past two years. They’ll be expected to advance at least one round for the third straight year, with the goal of making it to the second weekend and playing in the Sweet 16.
“I want to strive so hard to continue to move this forward. I know how hard that is,” Holtmann said after Ohio State lost to Houston. “Obviously I know how hard it is to get here, to win a game, to win two games, to move forward. I don't want to get ahead of ourselves because it's no guarantees, but I do think that being in this locker room, tasting victory and defeat can only help us moving forward.”
With such a young roster, Ohio State has significant variance, making for a tougher projection. But both the ceiling and floor will be higher than they were last season.
Wesson, with an added offseason to mold his body, improve his finishing near the rim and figure out how to play without fouling, should morph into an even more dominant center. He’ll be aided in the frontcourt by the addition of E.J. Liddell and Alonzo Gaffney, who will join Andre Wesson, Kyle Young and Justin Ahrens as forwards. Undoubtedly, Ohio State will add a center to back up Wesson in the near future. Ibrahima Diallo should decide soon, and Daniel Giddens reportedly visited Columbus this week.
Given Liddell’s combination of scoring ability from multiple levels and propensity for blocking shots, he has a chance to start immediately as a freshman like Muhammad did last season. Andre Wesson won’t be a star, but he’ll play an important role as a spot-up shooter and defense-first small forward, who has the edge to start for the second year in a row.
The frontcourt, which appears to be longer and more dynamic offensively than it was last season, will be paired with a backcourt that should feature improved point guard play.
C.J. Jackson and Keyshawn Woods provided necessary scoring boosts and served as primary ball-handlers, but unlike Carton and Walker, neither are traditional point guards. Muhammad hit the freshman wall, but he had stretches of impressive play, and with a year of starting experience, he should improve. Washington provides bench scoring, and Musa Jallow will once again be a wing defender.
If everything goes right, the Buckeyes could find themselves in the race for the Big Ten title. The assembled talent makes that a possibility. But the relative youth and inexperience will be obstacles.
Ohio State will have at least six freshmen or sophomores – Liddell, Carton, Gaffney, Muhammad, Washington and Ahrens – serving in key roles, and three of them – Carton, Muhammad and Liddell – might start. Long-term, the Buckeyes find themselves in a strong position. But it can be tough to rely so heavily on first-year players, especially late in the season in the conference and NCAA tournaments.
Still, Ohio State has enough returning veteran contributors to combine with the potential-laden underclassmen to expect a finish near the top of the Big Ten and aim for a Sweet 16 bid.
“I think the importance is building your team and your program where getting (to the NCAA tournament) is a consistent goal, and then advancing is a consistent goal,” Holtmann said. “That's the challenge in front of us.”
