Hot Starts Are Nothing New For Chris Holtmann; January and Beyond Is When His Program Needs to Reach New Heights

Chris Holtmann's basketball Buckeyes ran their record to 9-2 yesterday with a 67-60 win over UCLA in Atlanta at the CBS Sports Classic. 

The victory was meaningful in a multitude of ways as the Buckeyes effectively bounced back from a dreadful loss at Penn State seven days prior and showed they could win an ugly defensive struggle against a long Bruins team ranked No. 17 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. 

With two games left in December including a home matchup versus a New Orleans squad ranked No. 284 in KenPom's overall rankings and a date with a bad West Virginia team (No. 131) in Cleveland, Holtmann's squad is primed to be 11-2 entering January. 

Assuming the Buckeyes win both of those games – they'll be solid favorites in each – the 11-2 record would be the program's second-best mark through November and December since Holtmann arrived ahead of the 2017-18 season. 

Of course, feasting on cupcakes while also posting some decent wins against early Big Ten or non-conference competition isn't new to Holtmann's program. 

Through his seven years in Columbus, Holtmann's squads are currently 68-16 in November/December games, good for a winning percentage of 81%.

Too many times, however, the calendar flips to January and Holtmann's teams fail to deliver.

Twice the Buckeyes have posted January-March records below .500 under Holtmann including last season's 7-16 mark and an 8-14 record back in 2018-19. 

On the flip side, Holtmann's groups have posted January-March records over .500 four times, though just two of those saw the Buckeyes go more than two games over .500. The 2020-21 team went 13-8 in those months and the 2017-18 group posted an impressive 14-5 mark led by Thad Matta holdovers Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate, among others. 

Through those six seasons under Holtmann, the Buckeyes are 64-61 in games played January through March. Yes, that obviously means stiffer competition in the form of Big Ten regular season and conference tournament action plus NCAA Tournament games, but a winning percentage of 51% in those contests has certainly opened the door for plenty of fair criticism. 

The frustrations ring louder when you consider the Buckeyes haven't finished better than tied for fourth place in the Big Ten regular-season standings since Holtmann's first season, they've made just one appearance in the Big Ten tournament title game, they're 3-4 in NCAA Tournament play and have yet to reach the second weekend including when Ohio State was a No. 2 seed in the 2021 Dance and lost to 15-seed Oral Roberts. 

With that brief trip down memory lane out of the way, we're back wondering what to make of this current team's full-season prospects after watching it sprint to nine wins in 11 tries. 

On one hand, we've seen this kind of start before only to see things disintegrate in a hurry. On the other, this squad could be different. 

As someone who has expressed discontent with Holtmann's resume to date and the administration's overall expectation level for the men's basketball program in forums such as articles on this site, Twitter and the Eleven Warriors Radio Hour, I think there are reasons for optimism this season could pan out much better than the previous six. 

I'm not here to trumpet Big Ten title or Final Four expectations for this group, unfortunately, but I think there's an argument this team has some solid pieces, is deeper, and that those pieces fit together as a more cohesive roster than in season's past. 

Winning big games, certainly tournament games, requires solid guard play and Ohio State seems to have that as Bruce Thornton and Roddy Gayle Jr. continue to blossom after ups and downs as freshmen a season ago. 

Thornton is a legit floor general capable of getting others involved while also scoring from all three levels and currently leads the team in points (18.0), assists (4.3) and steals (1.5) per game. He's also the undisputed team leader and the type of guy who wants to take the big shot.

Gayle picked up right where he left off after a breakout Big Ten Tournament performance and is averaging 14.7 points per night via impressive shooting including 53.8% from the floor and 43.3% from beyond the arc. His ability to get into the lane for floaters and pull-up jumpers also seemingly increases his chances of avoiding prolonged shooting slumps. 

Another factor working in this team's favor versus previous editions is the addition of Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle. A bit of a volume scorer over his career, Battle can get 20 on any given night and has moderately stretched defenses hitting 39.4% of his 3-point tries. The staff is probably mindful of trying to keep him from having to guard mismatches on the perimeter to ensure his scoring isn't offset by on-ball defensive issues. 

All three of those guys have gone for 20+ points multiple times already this season giving Ohio State a diversified scoring punch it hasn't always had under Holtmann. 

Often void of a consistently legit post presence at either end of the floor over the last six seasons, Holtmann's current squad is receiving a nice boost from 6-foot-11 sophomore Felix Okpara. The Nigerian is starting and playing nearly five more minutes per game than last season, up to 19.6 per game thus far, and his production has grown leaps and bounds. 

It's hard to put too much stock in his numbers this year versus last simply because of the competition level through 11 games this year compared to last year when he played 35 games including a full slate of Big Ten foes, but he's currently shooting 65% from the floor versus 59% last year, he's pulling down 6.5 boards compared to 3.6, and recording 2.3 blocks versus 1.3. Staying out of foul trouble, mostly to give Ohio State a defensive anchor, remains a focus heading into the conference slate. As we know, shooting comes and goes but team defense must improve and remain a constant if the Buckeyes are to achieve heights Holtmann has yet to see in his coaching career. 

And of course, Zed Key is coming off the bench after losing a bunch of weight following shoulder surgery. He and Okpara are seeing equal minutes and Key is obviously the greater offensive threat averaging 9.5 points per game on 59% from the field.  

Beyond those five guys, Penn State transfer Evan Mahaffey is a rangy Swiss Army knife of sorts that's willing to fill an important but unsexy starting role. That said, his early 31% shooting is an issue especially against 2-3 zone defenses as Holtmann seems intent on having him be the guy at the crucial foul-line-extended spot against such looks. 

Baylor transfer and Shaker Heights product Dale Bonner has played a ton of basketball and was brought in to be a veteran presence as Thornton's backup. True freshman Scotty Middleton has all the tools to eventually be a great player in Columbus. How quickly he can develop could be a factor to watch in the back half of the season knowing he has the talent to provide complimentary scoring punch should some of the lead dogs struggle on certain nights. 

Finally, fellow true freshman Devin Royal out of Pickerington has the ability to play bigger than his 6-foot-6 frame, meaning his development over the course of the season could also be useful down the stretch on those inevitable nights Okpara and Key find themselves in foul trouble on the road in the Big Ten. Maybe he could even be that guy in the high post against 2-3 zones at certain points. 

That's certainly a lot of ifs and buts, however, I am still more optimistic about Holtmann's current group than any of the last few for reasons already discussed. 

So for those of you who haven't really even paid attention to the basketball team yet this season and never plan to until football season is officially over, there's at least some reason to be curious about the 2023-24 Buckeyes.

And there's nothing wrong with demanding Holtmann's squad is in the small group of teams nipping at Purdue's heels in league play, they make some real noise in the Big Ten tournament and reach at least the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Matta's 2012-13 Buckeyes reached the Elite Eight. 

If they don't, well then things should get very interesting in Columbus.