One win and one loss in two Quad 1 games for a second week in a row has kept Ohio State's NCAA Tournament résumé level once more.
Star point guard Bruce Thornton's herculean effort led a 17-point comeback against then-No. 18 Maryland on Thursday only for Ohio State to fall on the road in Nebraska's notoriously tough Pinnacle Bank Arena on Sunday. Last week the Buckeyes were a projected 10 seed in the Big Dance and that's where many experts place Jake Diebler's bunch this week.
Ohio State is still in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten standings, but a weaker slate of games arriving during a three-game home stand offers an opportunity for upward movement. The double-edged sword is that a loss in any upcoming easier contests could severely hinder the Buckeyes' NCAA tourney chances.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Not much has changed here since the previous edition of Buckeyetology. Last week 86 of the 87 bracket projections aggregated in the 2025 Bracket Matrix had Ohio State in the NCAA Tournament, this week it is 86 out of 88. The average seeding of those projections is 9.65
| Overall Record | 14-10 |
| Home | 9-4 |
| Road | 3-5 |
| NET Ranking | 28th |
| Q1 Record | 5-7 |
| Q2 Record | 3-3 |
| Strength of Schedule | 8th |
The Buckeyes are still barely avoiding a First Four game and securing a bye through to the first round of the tourney according to some of college basketball's biggest-name bracketology experts. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has actually promoted Ohio State to a No. 9 seed this past week, while CBS' Jerry Palm has the Buckeyes as one of his last four byes with a No. 11 seed. FOX's Mike DeCourcy splits the difference of those two by placing OSU as a No. 10 seed.
One major boost to Ohio State's tourney résumé all season has been its avoidance of bad losses, that is a Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss by the standards of the NCAA's evaluation tools. The Buckeyes are a combined 6-0 in Quad 3 or 4 games, but get their first Quad 3 game in Big Ten play Wednesday against Washington.
A loss to the Huskies would be a massive blow to Ohio State's Big Dance chances. It's critical that the Buckeyes defend their home floor in Value City Arena, because despite receiving a bye by most experts currently, one bad loss in what would be a 14-11 record makes their case for the NCAA Tournament worse.
For now, Ohio State is in a good position. The Buckeyes still have a strong NET ranking of 28th. Lunardi's last four teams in the tourney range from 34th to 59th. OSU has played the eighth-toughest schedule in college basketball and is tied for the 14th-most Quad 1 wins with five.
If the Buckeyes hold steady as they have the past couple of weeks, they're on track to be dancing in March.
| RNK | TEAM | B1G RECORD | OVR RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHIGAN | 11-2 | 19-5 |
| 2 | PURDUE | 11-3 | 19-6 |
| 3 | MICHIGAN STATE | 10-3 | 19-5 |
| 4 | WISCONSIN | 9-4 | 19-5 |
| 5 | UCLA | 9-5 | 18-7 |
| 6 | MARYLAND | 8-5 | 18-6 |
| 6 | ILLINOIS | 9-6 | 16-8 |
| 8 | NEBRASKA | 6-7 | 16-8 |
| 8 | OHIO STATE | 6-7 | 14-10 |
| 8 | USC | 6-7 | 14-10 |
| 11 | OREGON | 6-8 | 17-8 |
| 11 | INDIANA | 6-8 | 15-10 |
| 13 | RUTGERS | 5-8 | 12-12 |
| 14 | IOWA | 4-8 | 13-10 |
| 15 | MINNESOTA | 4-9 | 12-12 |
| 16 | NORTHWESTERN | 4-10 | 13-12 |
| 16 | WASHINGTON | 3-9 | 12-11 |
| 18 | PENN STATE | 3-11 | 13-12 |
Big Ten Outlook
Ohio State was tied for eighth in the Big Ten in last week's Buckeyetology and remains there after its 1-1 record in conference play since that edition. It's not a bad standing for the Scarlet and Gray.
With the bottom three teams of the league's 18 teams set to be excluded from the Big Ten Tournament, Ohio State is comfortably 2.5 games ahead of Washington and Northwestern, who are tied for 16th place. As it stands, the Buckeyes are vying to be one of nine teams to get a bye to the second round of the conference tourney, tied with Nebraska and USC for eighth in the Big Ten.
A double-bye straight to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, which goes to the top four teams in the conference, does look pretty much out of reach for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are three games behind fourth-place Wisconsin with only eight games to play for both teams.
In other news, Michigan has moved into first place in the Big Ten with a five-game winning streak, the latest victory coming over No. 7 Purdue. The No. 20 Wolverines come to Columbus for their next game on Sunday for a rivalry battle and Quad 1 contest for both sides.
But first, the Bucks must chuck the Huskies at home on Wednesday. Tipoff for that game is at 8:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network.
