They knew it would be a two-year gig.
When newly hired Ohio State coach Urban Meyer hired assistant coaches in November 2011, he asked them each for a two-year commitment. After the 2014 Orange Bowl, one could have expected a massive coach defection from Ohio State. Only two left, Mike Vrabel and Everett Withers, and nobody left for a major college job. Top assistants like Tom Herman have turned down those opportunities and flourished.
A few years ago, Tom Herman wasn't expecting to work with Urban Meyer. When Meyer introduced himself over the phone in November 2011 and said he wanted to interview Herman, Herman's response was "yeah, right."
For the last three years, Herman has been a godsend for Ohio State's offense. Working with broken parts and misfit toys, Herman shaped the 2012 offense into a solid unit. In 2013, the Buckeyes had the best running game in the country. This year, the Buckeyes are in the college football playoff despite losing Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett to injury, both of whom have finished in the top 5 of the Heisman voting under Herman's influence. Cardale Jones, the third-stringer, led Ohio State's offense to 52 points in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Herman's star is on the rise. He was the best assistant coach in the country, and he richly deserved the Broyles Award for his efforts. His name has come up for all sorts of jobs; SMU, Kansas, Tulsa, Houston, Wisconsin, Pitt, and so on. Some Michigan fans see him as their third choice for a new coach.
At some point in the near future, Tom Herman will no longer be Ohio States's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Whether it's in a few weeks, months or years, Herman is going to get the chance to be a head coach sometime soon. Athletic director Gene Smith said as much on Saturday.
Funny thing, though; it's like Herman is the only person who doesn't know he's out the door. Herman's wife Michelle refuted a report that Herman would not stay with the team after the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, and there has been no word on the Houston job two days after he was said to be the favorite for the position.
@theOzonedotnet He's not???? We'll thanks for letting us know.
— Michelle Herman (@belletjh) December 13, 2014
This confusion is leading to a sort of perverse situation; Ohio State fans are happy to have Herman as their coach, but they're incredulous that he has been passed over for several jobs ("what, is he not good enough for you?"). They don't want him to leave, but that's the only way Herman can get the career boost fans want for him.
Fans might be concerned about repeating Urban Meyer's Florida tenure. At Florida, Meyer had a track record of recruiting good assistants who shone elsewhere, like Charlie Strong (Texas), Dan Mullen (Mississippi State) and Steve Addazio (Boston College). Those assistants were great, but once they left the Gators dropped off.
If Tom Herman leaves, there will be no immediate trouble. Barrett has spent two years learning from Herman, and Miller and Jones have spent three. Unless Meyer hires some schlub to coach quarterbacks, they will perform at a high level. And if they don't, at least they will be able to take snaps behind Ed Warinner's offensive line.
There's no such thing as a sure hire in college football. Herman enjoys his current position in Columbus and may not want to risk upward momentum at Houston. If he chooses to stay in Columbus another year, Herman may get a crack at a P5 program in 2016. If that's what Herman decides to do, there's no number of enthusiastic fans that could hold him back.
