After back-to-back cakewalks against the likes of Bowling Green and Tulsa things heat up tomorrow night as the Buckeyes take their show on the road to face the Oklahoma Sooners in Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
Entering the game as a slight favorite, most expect the Buckeyes will have their hands full on the road, at night, in a must-win scenario for the Sooners if they have any hopes of staying the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Can the Buckeyes slow Baker Mayfield? How will Urban Meyer and staff deploy Curtis Samuel? Which team ultimately captures the victory?
For answers to those questions and more we welcome Tim, Vico and Kevin to the latest installment of the 11W roundtable. Do work, sons.
The offensive tempo against Tulsa was decidedly lethargic compared to the fast break attack we saw against Bowling Green. What can we expect to see Saturday? Will Ohio State return to the faster pace or no and why?
Tim: Ohio State would be wise to return to that fast tempo its known for against the Sooners as Houston had some success with its version of the up-tempo offense in Week 1. If the Buckeyes can't get going offensively while running with tempo, however, they might try to slow things down to try and give their defense as long a rest as possible.
Vico: My hope is Ohio State was withholding plays or strategy against Tulsa to save them for Oklahoma. I'm expecting a more coherent game plan and greater diversity in the play calls. The problem is Oklahoma's defense will be more challenging. Also note that tempo works better after positive first down plays. Ohio State did not have a lot of those against Tulsa early into the contest.
Kevin: I’m fairly certain Urban Meyer and staff don’t start games by saying, “Yeah, let’s really slow it down today. We went a little too fast last week.” They’ll undoubtedly want to go uptempo, it’s just a matter of how successful they’ll be.
I think it’s going to come down to the point of attack – more specifically the interior offensive line. Against Bowling Green, there were holes I would be comfortable running through at 5-9, 145. This obviously opened up the passing game as well. Against Tulsa, Ohio State had a little more trouble moving the ball between the tackles. Oklahoma isn’t going to make that easy either.
However, I think the offense will still be fine regardless. The Buckeyes made necessary adjustments in the second half against Tulsa, getting the ball outside with Curtis Samuel, and I think they’ll be able to maintain an uptempo offense Saturday night.
After recording just six carries in the opener Barrett carried it 16 times versus the Golden Hurricane and we know how Meyer loves to rely on his quarterback in big games. With that backdrop, how many carries will Barrett have on Saturday and what kind of success will he have?
Kevin: Honestly, I hope very few. I think J.T. Barrett’s rushing numbers – specifically the number of carries – and the team’s overall offensive performance are inversely related. Before the season, Meyer talked about wanting to keep his rushing attempts down. So to me, when he carries it excessively it’s a sign that things aren’t going quite as planned offensively.
Given all of that, I’m sure he’ll end up carrying it upwards of 15 times. Oklahoma is going to take away the inside run, and try to mitigate the big plays that killed them against Houston. That pretty much leaves Barrett and his legs.
Vico: I think he has more than that against Oklahoma. My hunch is he'll have 20 carries for 70 total rushing yards. I'm also trying to account for potential sack yards in that estimate.
Tim: Urban trusts Barrett and I think he'll give him at least 15 carries Saturday. It seems like in the past there's been a tendency in big games for Ohio State to heavily rely on the quarterback run and I don't think this game is much different. Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber need to be heavily involved too, however.
On the topic of touches, Curtis Samuel received just four in the first half last week and rallied for 13 for the entire game, amassing 140 yards (10.8 per). How can we expect to see Samuel used this weekend? Will he be a more focal point of the offense especially in the early going? What do you think is the touch sweet spot for Samuel?
Vico: He will and he should be. He's a versatile athlete, albeit a "master" of no particular aspect of the offense, who helps in both the running and passing game. His "sweet spot" for touches should be north of 20, maybe even 25.
Kevin: I mentioned this in my debriefing last week, but the past two years I’ve been concerned about how Curtis Samuel would fit into the offense. I saw a talented football player with no defined position. I thought that would keep him off the field. I repent.
Curtis Samuel should touch the ball as many times as possible. He’s the most dangerous and talented player on the offense regardless of where he lines up. I don’t think he should get the Braxton Miller treatment of required touches because I veto that on principle, but he’s a mismatch for almost every poor soul that tries to match up with him and I think you have to take advantage of that.
The cool thing about Samuel, though, is he doesn’t really need a lot of touches. He’s a home run hitter who seems to take advantage when the defense is lulled to sleep.
Tim: The number I like for Samuel is 15-plus. Originally I thought he'd be in the 10-15 range, but after seeing him these first two games and how he's used, he should be touching the ball more than anybody on offense outside of Barrett. If you can get to the 20 mark, great, but it needs to be at least 15 for Samuel. He's Ohio State's best player, in my opinion, and he needs the ball. I think he could have a huge night in Norman.
Malik Hooker has been a beast through two games building on a fine spring camp. His body of work is just two games but based on what you’ve seen, what is the ceiling for Hooker? Which former Buckeye does he compare most favorably to?
Tim: I'm not sure there is a ceiling for Hooker. Remember, this is a kid who only played high school football for two years before coming to Ohio State so he's only scratching the surface. His instincts are what clearly stand out to me as he's shown a natural ability to find the football through just two games. This is going to sound crazy because this player is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but Hooker reminds me of Ed Reed — at least instinctually — when he's back there playing safety. We'll see how he stacks up against some better competition first, though.
Kevin: Malik Hooker is a freak and by putting him at that free-safety position in the cover-1, the coaches put him in a position to succeed. His play recognition, instincts and athleticism make him the perfect guy for the center field role.
You mentioned the past two games, but he had two interceptions and touchdown in the spring game as well, so this performance isn’t a fluke. Ohio State’s single season interceptions record is nine. Hooker is a third of the way there through two games. He’s going to break it.
I’ve thought long and hard and honestly cannot even think of anyone to compare him to. I can’t recall a ball-hawking safety quite like him, at least in my lifetime (I was born in 1994. So…)
Vico: I know of no safety in Ohio State's lore who had the kind of season that Hooker could have at this current pace. Ohio State's reputation at defensive back is more at corner than safety. He's kind of sui generis. He's effectively a center fielder at safety.
His ceiling is quite high---surprise Thorpe Award winner "high". My worry is that savvier offensive coaches will use Hooker's instinct/athleticism against him. Some of his big play interceptions have followed initial reads that enabled him to jump a route or bail to the sideline in support of a corner. He's not looking back or second-guessing the play as it's developing. It's not hard to think of scenarios in which an offensive coordinator singles him out to mess with his instincts.
Through two games only Curtis Samuel has at least 10 catches for the Buckeyes with Dontre Wilson next on the list with six. In fact, no true wide receiver has more than four receptions. Is this a problem or the reality of the staff rotating so many guys at wideout? Do you expect a true wide receiver to step up this week? If so, who will it be and why?
Vico: It's the reality of having no proven commodity at wide receiver. We knew this would be an issue but it's a testament to a Dontre Wilson that he's demonstrated himself as a reliable hand. Expect Noah Brown to be the most likely candidate to fill this void. There's just no defensive back that can match his physicality. He might get his sea legs underneath him as the season progresses, hopefully starting in Norman on Saturday.
Tim: There has to be someone. Ohio State needs an outside receiver to emerge in this game or it doesn't have a shot. Somebody has to take the top off the defense as I think Oklahoma is a little bit vulnerable through the air.
The number of catches doesn't exactly alarm me because of the amount of rotation we've seen thus far, but I definitely think the number of guys who see the field shrinks this week. Noah Brown has to be the guy who makes multiple catches, but K.J. Hill, Parris Campbell or Terry McLaurin need to make a play or two down the field.
Kevin: It’s not a problem when you’re breaking total offense records and averaging 62.5 points per game (though three defensive scores does help that number).
Maybe someone will step up and become the primary target – Noah Brown comes to mind – but maybe they won’t. I think it’s only natural this happens when you’ve got upwards of 10 players fighting for snaps.
If anything, I think it’s a source of optimism. If one guy gets shut down or has a bad day, there are plenty of other players to fill the void.
Which player has exceeded your expectations so far and why? Which player hasn’t and why?
Tim: Hooker has exceeded my expectations. Players and coaches certainly talked him up, but I certainly wasn't envisioning the start to the season he's had. As far as a player who hasn't exceeded my expectations, maybe Brown? I guess I was just expecting to see the next Michael Thomas out there the way he's been talked about, but I haven't seen it yet. Again, though, it's just two games and he has a huge opportunity this week.
Kevin: I would say Malik Hooker has exceeded my expectations, but we’ve already talked about him at length so I’ll instead talk about Marshon Lattimore. He’s been with the program a while and with his nagging injuries as well as the defensive back talent that keeps coming to Columbus, I half expected him to get passed by at some point, but he’s proven me wrong in a big way.
Corey Smith has disappointed me, to be blunt. I expected him, being a sixth year senior, to be the most game-ready receiver of the group, save maybe Noah Brown. But thus far, he’s been outplayed by freshmen and sophomores. I hope this is due to the lingering hamstring injury Meyer keeps referring to.
Vico: Malik Hooker has clearly exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a workmanlike effort from a new secondary this fall. Hooker is having a phenomenal start to the season. I might be most disappointed in the interior of the defensive line. I didn't expect those guys to be great, only good. I'm not sure they're even that. A soft interior of the defensive line is a liability for every other position on defense.
Despite Oklahoma’s week one struggles quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed at least 70% of his passes each of the first two weeks and has five touchdown tosses against zero picks. This week, he’ll be facing a Buckeye secondary that has been on fire through the first two games. How will the Buckeyes go about slowing down Mayfield and the Sooner passing game? Will they be successful?
Vico: This will be an interesting game for Greg Schiano. I loved his hire. Fans are starting to see the reasons why. Expect Ohio State to send some exotic twists/stunts on the defensive line, along with some blitzes, to confuse Baker Mayfield and the offense that Lincoln Riley coordinates. They should be successful in slowing him down. Oklahoma will still get some points, but any loss to Oklahoma, I suspect, will fall more on Ohio State's offense than its defense.
Kevin: The have to stop the run first. That’s something that’s been emphasized by basically everyone we’ve talked to this week – to even have a shot to stop Mayfield, they have to stop the run first.
I think the secondary will be fine – it actually seems to be the strength of the defense. However if the Sooners dominate the middle against a young Buckeye interior defensive line, that could open things up for Mayfield. It’s also going to be a problem if the Silver Bullets can’t get pressure on him.
TL;DR, Even if Mayfield “lights up” the Buckeye defense, the secondary is not going to be the issue.
Tim: Ohio State has to keep him in the pocket because Mayfield is at his best when he's on the run playing backyard football. If the Buckeyes can keep him from escaping to the outside, they'll have success because I haven't yet seen him be forced to beat a team with his arm from the pocket. Ohio State will play press 1-on-1 coverage on the outside receivers and try to force Mayfield to make throws to beat them. If those come from in the pocket, they can create some havoc, but if Ohio State allows Mayfield to get outside, look out.
Did Jim Harbaugh eat a booger or merely put his finger in his nose then put that same finger in his mouth? Through two games Michigan has put up a ton of points but hasn’t found a groove rushing the football. What should we make of this team so far? Are they better than you anticipated, worse, or right on schedule?
Tim: I don't think he ate a booger. I think that was a funny looking moment that the Internet ran wild with — which I'm all for by the way — but people don't do things like that.
As far as Michigan goes, I know Ohio State fans like to downplay the rival team and all that, but Michigan is a really good football team this year. The Wolverines are right where I expected them to be and maybe even a little ahead since I didn't expect much from Wilton Speight at quarterback. Again, though, we're just two games into the season so a lot can change, but Michigan is a legitimate team this year with tons of NFL talent on the field.
Vico: God knows. Not addressing the first line of inquiry.
On Michigan: let's face it. The Wolverines are good. Ohio State fans who watched Harbaugh take over a moribund Stanford program and lead it to the Orange Bowl and take over a similarly woeful 49ers franchise and lead it to the Super Bowl shouldn't downplay what he's doing in Ann Arbor. I'm not sure if Michigan is "playoff good" this year; it'll stumble somewhere. However, it is "Big Ten Champion good" even if any route to a Big Ten championship would require a Michigan win in Columbus. I'm not sure if I'm ready to predict that yet. Michigan has some issues on defense and Wilton Speight might crack, but it's on schedule.
Kevin: Yeah he totally ate a booger. But it’s fine, I love him anyway.
I think Michigan is good, but not particularly awesome offensively. That said, I think they’re probably the second best team in the Big Ten (I’ll let you all decide who I think it No. 1).
I also feel mostly unqualified to talk about them because I haven’t watched a complete Michigan game yet this season. So I’ll stop there. I’m not about to end up on @OldTakesExposed.
Back to the Buckeyes, Ohio State is currently a 2 point favorite over the Sooners. Do they cover? Give us a final score prediction and game MVP.
Tim: This game honestly feels like a coin flip to me, but I’m going with Oklahoma to squeak out a 28-27 victory. The Sooners simply can’t lose this game and playing it at home gives them the extra advantage they need to score a late touchdown to escape with a win. I’m picking Samaje Perine as the MVP as he’s due for a big game and I think Ohio State is vulnerable defensively to the inside run.
Kevin: I’ve got 48-28 Ohio State. I think the Buckeye secondary makes a few big plays against Mayfield, and the game MVP will be Malik Hooker with at least one interception.
Vico: I liked being the Negative Nancy during Ohio State's post-season run in 2014 and I'll continue that trend here. I like the Sooners, 21-17. Game ball goes to Joe Mixon for Oklahoma.
