Preview: No. 2 Ohio State at Penn State

By Eric Seger on October 21, 2016 at 8:35 am
Ohio State-Penn State preview.
Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
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When a reporter asked James Franklin how his team—despite eventually finishing a woeful 2-6 in Big Ten play—got back into the game and nearly won the last time Ohio State visited State College, the Penn State head coach paid homage to the raucous environment more than 107,000 screaming fans created.

“I thought one of the things we did really well that year was we got the crowd involved early in the game and kept them involved,” Franklin said on Tuesday.

Penn State Nittany Lions
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
4-2, 2-1 B1G
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8:00 – SATURDAY, OCT. 22
BEAVER STADIUM
STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA

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Franklin—who is 18-14 in what is now his third season at Penn State—spoke about matchups and players like former linebacker Mike Hull and defensive lineman Anthony Zettel making huge plays in that game. But behind J.T. Barrett, the Buckeyes rallied late to triumph 31-24 in double overtime and eventually won the national title. Franklin talked briefly about last year's meeting between the two teams also, a 38-10 rout by Ohio State in Columbus, and mentioned penalties taking points off the board and an inability to stop Barrett running the ball.

But Franklin kept bringing up that environment two years ago, one that figures to be similar when the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes meet again Saturday night in front of a White Out crowd at Beaver Stadium.

”I think the biggest factor is we made plays on offense and we made plays on defense,” Franklin said. “That not only kept us in the game, but kept the crowd involved, which is very important.”

Franklin knows how crucial the crowd will be if his team wishes to upset the No. 2 Buckeyes, as well as the legs of running back Saquon Barkley and opportunistic playmaking ability of redshirt sophomore quarterback Trace McSorley. Penn State's defense is depleted due to injuries and the Nittany Lions are 20-point underdogs but the crowd can play equalizer. It did that in 2014 when the Buckeyes raced out to a 17-0 lead before turning the ball over on a pick-six to Zettel that reignited the noise.

“The last two times, wish they saved the White Outs for other games, but I guess they used it for our game,” Urban Meyer said on Monday. “It's one of the top five atmospheres, again, in college football.”

The Buckeyes escaped another top atmosphere last weekend at Wisconsin, leaving Camp Randall Stadium with a 30-23 overtime victory in which Barrett again led the charge late. Now the challenge for Ohio State is getting prepared and emotionally ready to face another improved team that had two weeks to prepare on its home turf.

“There's a lot of energy right now in that program. Wins do that for you,” Meyer said on Wednesday. “Their last two games, they played their best game obviously against Maryland. All the way around.”

“We're going to need our fans. We're going to need our alumni. We're going to need everybody,” Franklin said. “This is a tremendous challenge that we're facing all together and we're going to need the stadium to be the most difficult environment in the history of college football come Saturday night.”

Penn State Breakdown

As Meyer mentioned multiple times this week, everything the Nittany Lions do on offense starts, stops, moves or doesn't move because of star running back Saquon Barkley. Just a true sophomore, Barkley roasted the Buckeyes for 194 yards last season in Columbus.

“Elusiveness,” Meyer said. “We saw last year too. He kind of had a coming out but I suppose after our game and you see him this year, he's picked up where he's left off. He's one of the best backs in America.”

Barkley is a terrific downhill runner with excellent vision and at 5-foot-11 and 223 pounds, is extremely difficult to bring down. Great in space and also cutting through the box, he is tied with Iowa's Akrum Wadley for the Big Ten lead with eight touchdown runs. Barkley also averages nearly 5 yards a carry behind an improved offensive line and tallied 202 yards on 31 carries two weeks ago in Penn State's 38-14 victory over Maryland.

“He’s a very dangerous player,” Ohio State safety and Pennsylvania native Malik Hooker said on Wednesday. “You’ve got to go out there, you’ve got to tackle well, pursue the ball and everybody has got to run to the ball because if you don’t he’s capable of making a lot of great, big plays.”

2016 Statistical Comparison
Ohio State Buckeyes   Nittany Lions
OFFENSE
49.3 4th POINTS FOR 30.5 61st
300.5 4th RUSHING OFFENSE 152.2 88th
216.0 83rd PASSING OFFENSE 239.3 53rd
516.5 12th TOTAL OFFENSE 391.5 82nd
.506 8th 3rd DOWNS .274 123rd
.886 38th RED ZONE .840 65th
DEFENSE
12.8 3rd POINTS ALLOWED 28.5 73rd
120.8 20th RUSH DEFENSE 208.8 103rd
159.5 6th PASS DEFENSE 172.7 13th
89.4 4th PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE 118.2 39th
280.3 6th TOTAL DEFENSE 381.5 52nd
.308 17th 3rd DOWNS .375 58th
.625 1st RED ZONE .885 90th
SPECIAL TEAMS
6.5 82nd PUNT RETURN 5.8 86th
27.4 8th KICKOFF RETURN 20.2 78th
46.9 2nd NET PUNTING 35.2 107th
MISCELLANEOUS
+ 1.3 4th TURNOVER MARGIN -0.3 89th
8.0 107th PENALTIES 5.0 22nd
16 EDGE 2

Franklin has implemented more of a spread attack this season with quarterback Christian Hackenberg on to the NFL, the same scheme he used to win nine games (and a bowl) during both the 2012 and 2013 seasons at Vanderbilt. It allows the Nittany Lions to play faster, especially with McSorley orchestrating things and being a threat with his legs.

“I do think Trace's ability to run changes things. I think it really does,” Franklin said. “I think it helps your offensive line. I think it also affects the defensive coordinator in things that they are going to call and how they are going to call them and why they are going to call them and when they are going to call them.”

“He's something, he’s an athlete,” Meyer added of McSorley. “He runs the offense very well.”

Penn State's offensive line has largely been the same all season for the first time in Franklin's tenure and under new coach Matt Limegrover. But the loss of multi-year starter at tackle Andrew Nelson to a knee injury against Maryland hurts significantly. Expect Franklin to slide junior college senior Paris Palmer in Nelson's place (and potentially shuffle the unit around a bit) to fill the void. Whoever plays there, however, will have his hands full. That is an area the Buckeyes should be able to exploit.

“Paris has played a lot of football. Not necessarily this year but he has played a lot of football for us,” Franklin said. “It's not like we're putting a guy in there that has not had experience playing big-time football. So that's a positive.”

Palmer struggled last year in pass protection, his slow feet giving way to quick defensive ends. There is a reason Penn State recruited over him. But Chasz Wright, Brendan Mahon or even true freshman Will Fries could see time there. Franklin wouldn't divulge much this week.

“I would say right now the way it's looking is we have Mahon, we got Paris and we got Chasz,” Franklin said on Wednesday. “Some combination of that order and then Fries will be the fourth guy at this point.”

The Nittany Lions also have a wide receiving corps that Meyer believes is "as good as we've faced, not this year, but in a while." The group is led by Chris Godwin, who is tied with tight end Mike Gesicki with 23 catches this year. Godwin has 325 yards and DeAndre Thompkins leads the team with 328 on only 18 catches. DaeSean Hamilton remains in the fold as well, with 18 receptions. He caught 14 passes from Hackenberg against the Buckeyes two years ago. The whole unit is experiencing more success with McSorley, however, especially if he breaks contain and looks downfield.

“He gets out of the pocket and makes a lot of his plays from getting out of the pocket. He’ll scramble and throw a lot of deep passes,” Hooker said. “I just feel like the secondary overall you’ve got to stay focused and leave your man and make other plays.”

At 6-foot-6 and 252 pounds and much improved from a year ago, Gesicki is a significant matchup problem Ohio State's linebackers and safeties must pay attention to in the middle of the field. Hooker said the Nittany Lions use him more like a receiver at times—in a similar way Oklahoma uses Mark Andrews—as they try to spread the field and use a hurry up if the defense gets caught with the wrong personnel on the field.

“He’s capable of making a lot of big plays as well,” Hooker said. “If you don’t contain him, he’s one of the major keys of their offense.”

Penn State's offense is improved but still ranks seventh in the Big Ten in total yards per game, is tied for sixth in scoring, fourth in passing and even with Barkley remains ninth in rushing. Still, the Nittany Lions average 30 points per game, up a touchdown from where they stood in Hackenberg's final year on campus.

Hamilton
Hamilton had a big night against OSU in 2014.

They've needed every bit of that too as the defense is not what it used to be with Zettel, Hull and 2015 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Carl Nassib no longer in the program. Penn State ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten in all major defensive categories but does have 52 tackles for loss through six games. Credit the defensive line for that, simply because every linebacker position has been a revolving door due to injuries.

Returning starters Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell have missed significant time, while senior middle linebacker Nyeem Wartman-White is out for the season. Top reserve Jake Cooper didn't play the last few weeks. Walk-on Jan Johnson got hurt and is also out for the season, and he only played because officials ejected Brandon Smith (another walk-on) for targeting in Penn State's 49-10 loss at Michigan.

So true freshman Cameron Brown had to start alongside Koa Farmer, a former linebacker-turned-safety that shifted back to linebacker. All told, seven linebackers have missed time. It's a mess.

“I don't know if I've ever seen or ever heard a program losing seven linebackers and you're talking about guys for a significant amount of time at one position like that,” Franklin said.

He added that Bell and Cabinda returned to practice this week for the first time in a month but doesn't expect them to go right back into the lineup and play 60 plays because of how much time they missed. Penn State's secondary is solid, with six interceptions and only allowing six touchdowns through the air in 2016. The Nittany Lions are fourth in the Big Ten behind Michigan, Ohio State and Rutgers in passing defense.

Opponents average 208.8 rushing yards per game against Penn State, due mostly to so many injuries at linebacker. Ohio State is prolific in that part of its offense, particularly with J.T. Barrett, who torched the Nittany Lions each of the last two seasons on the ground.

“He's a huge part of their running game, ” Franklin said. “Week-in and week-out and he's shown that he's able to do that and has been a problem for people for the last three years.”

How well Penn State can stop Barrett, Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber from moving the ball on the ground will go a long way in determining the game's outcome, especially with some of the issues the Buckeyes have throwing the ball. An extra week of preparation for Franklin should help that.

“[Ohio State] is a challenge,” Franklin said. “These guys are as talented at every position as anybody in the country.”

Buckeye Breakdown

Meyer put his team's come-from-behind overtime win at Wisconsin last week in the same category as the one in State College two years ago. He saw the same thing then as he did in Madison—players grew together and surprised him with the way they came back and made the necessary plays to finish on the right side of the scoreboard.

“This is the only other one that's been like that that I can recall, that every indicator was up that we lost the game. At Penn State, the story was told,” Meyer said. “So the script was written. I just remember thinking what am I going to say to this team afterwards? It crossed my mind.”

Meyer credited Barrett for refusing to let his team lose amid the White Out in 2014 and then again last weekend at Wisconsin. The quarterback ran for the two decisive touchdowns against the Nittany Lions, then ran for two and threw the game-winner to Noah Brown against the Badgers. Ohio State hasn't nailed down its deep passing game consistently at the halfway point of the regular season but as long as it has Barrett, its chances are pretty good. That showed again Saturday. In the process, Barrett became the program's all-time leader in touchdowns responsible for with 89.

“Records are good and all, maybe I'll appreciate it when I'm 40 or 50 but right now, I don't think records, I don't think they really matter if we didn't win,” Barrett said on Monday. “We talk about a loss more than a record. I'm worried about winning.”

It appears that is the way the entire roster feels, particularly with how the players stuck it out—especially on defense—even when Wisconsin took a 16-6 lead into halftime. Luke Fickell's group rose up in the red zone as it so often has and kept Wisconsin out of the end zone and thus the Buckeyes in the game. Then Barrett and his receivers made just enough plays to win.

The downfield passing game remains a concern in Columbus but one that Meyer is confident will continue to progress to where it needs to be. Barrett is actually the most efficient passer in the conference, completing 63.2 percent of his passes and having 16 touchdowns against four interceptions. So it's not all bad.

The inability to connect on the deep ball—"mis-hits" as Meyer calls them—is both due to poor throws by him and receivers that haven't made plays.

Above all, Ohio State keeps winning.

“Efficiency running the ball, your efficiency on third down and your efficiency throwing the ball are really what’s the most important and then some of the other stats — winning is the most important stat and then some of those other things make you feel good I guess,” offensive coordinator Ed Warinner said.

A week after Samuel hardly touched the ball, Ohio State got him involved early at Wisconsin. Samuel ended up with 18 touches for 104 yards in Madison but running back Mike Weber only ran it 11 times for 46 yards and lost his hold on the Big Ten lead in rushing. The balance between those two guys, Barrett and even Dontre Wilson—whose 43-yard catch with Barrett outside the pocket led to Tyler Durbin's game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter at Wisconsin—is something that will continue to be a point of interest. As Meyer has shown consistently when things get tight and the passing game isn't hitting, he'll put the ball in Barrett's hands on the ground because he trusts him.

Meyer did that at Penn State. He did it against Indiana two weeks ago. He even did it at Wisconsin. And Barrett responded.

Barrett
Barrett continues to break Ohio State passing records.

“The higher the stakes, the more we need him, the higher he raises his level of play and the more productive he is. The stats bear that out. The guy is a winner,” Warinner said. “He’s not going to get rattled and if you call his number and say, ‘Hey, we need you to make a play.’ It’s going to happen and you can count on that. It’s happened time and time again.”

Penn State's defense isn't as good as it was but still provides a formidable challenge under the White Out cloud. Beaver Stadium is always a tough place to play and Franklin's team looks like the best he's had in his tenure.

Both teams like to run the ball but the game could come down to how well Ohio State's pass rush gets to McSorley. He struggled against Michigan and the offensive line in front of him is down its best starter in Nelson. Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes and Nick Bosa ended the game at Wisconsin with the walk-off sack, an outing where Corey Clement and the Badgers racked up 236 rushing yards.

But Ohio State's depth proved to be the difference late, as its line was noticeably fresher than Wisconsin's. Much of that is due to a rotation and the growth of younger players like Dre'Mont Jones, Robert Landers and especially Bosa. Franklin is less than pleased to see another No. 97 on film mauling opponents in scarlet and gray.

“I'm amazed that I'm saying this name again, but Bosa as a true freshman is playing and playing really well, as well is their defensive line in general,” Franklin said. “They are talented at linebacker, talented and long and athletic in the secondary. This is an athletic team and this is a team that has tremendous depth.”

Wisconsin punched the Buckeyes in the mouth a week ago. Penn State could too, another team with an extra week to prepare which might bring a few new wrinkles offensively. That is what Paul Chryst and Wisconsin did so well to the tune of more than 300 first-half yards. It is now on Ohio State to take that experience and apply it in another hostile environment on the road and under the lights.

“Wisconsin, that's kind of over so we gotta keep pushing, but we just gotta keep pushing,” Meyer said.

How It Plays Out

Barkley via Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Saquon Barkley provides the biggest fear to Urban Meyer and Ohio State on Saturday night and rightfully so. He is a talent unlike any the Buckeyes have gone against this season.

“The kingpin of that whole offense is that tailback,” Meyer said. “I think he is a phenomenal player.”

Protecting the football will be of the essence for J.T. Barrett and the Buckeye offense, as Anthony Zettel's 40-yard interception return for a touchdown early in the second half is what ignited both the Nittany Lions and Beaver Stadium in 2014 after a 17-0 halftime deficit. That crowd is likely to be a factor early, so the onus is on the Buckeyes to start quickly on both side of the ball but particularly on offense.

“The first five, six, seven minutes of this game are going to be crucial,” Meyer said.

“We have to be up for the challenge. We’re going to get their 'A' game, that’s a tough place to play, they have a good football team that’s won some games and they’re going to be ready for us,” offensive coordinator Ed Warinner added. “They’ve had two weeks off to get ready. We’ve got to be at our best.”

How Penn State runs the ball will likely determine the outcome of the game due to Ohio State's pass rush having an advantage with Andrew Nelson out for the season with a knee injury. He is Penn State's best offensive lineman and even though the Nittany Lions have talented receivers and a quarterback capable of making plays in Trace McSorley, the Buckeyes should turn their focus toward making him uncomfortable.

“The margin of error when you play a team like this is so small,” McSorley said on Wednesday. “So you've gotta be perfect on your details.”

“It's a party. That's what we just say, 'a party to the quarterback,'” Jalyn Holmes said. “Whoever gets there first, gets there first. It's a race. We just celebrate when we get there.”

Whether or not Ohio State parties late Saturday night depends if it can corral Barkley and connect on enough plays down the field to keep the defense honest and move the chains.

“That's No. 1 on the hit parade as far as Penn State, to stop them—you won't stop him, but minimize the impact the running back has on us,” Meyer said.

Meyer is an astounding 20-0 in true road games as the head coach at Ohio State. To get 21, he'll have to do it in a White Out after escaping a week earlier in another hostile environment. His team is more talented and has more depth but as we saw in 2014, Beaver Stadium plays a role unlike anywhere else.

“I've been on record, it's our third one, it is one of the great atmospheres in college football. The students are outstanding,” Meyer said. “It's loud. It's noisy and is a tough place to play. It’ll be our third game, each one of them are different. At Oklahoma is a very tough place to play. At Wisconsin is obviously and at Penn State. We chose the three toughest venues, arguably, three of the toughest in the country. We've had some experience in it. The good thing is our players have had to deal with it because it is an issue.”


ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 37, Penn State 16

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