Ohio State entered 2016 with a daunting schedule and a new roster in which almost no major player from the 2014 national championship team returned. "Overrated" was a fair charge in the pre-season given the combination of its pre-season rank and its inexperience. Fans knew that the schedule with this new roster included trips to what became the Big XII champion, the Big Ten West champion, and at home against Michigan, an Orange Bowl selection.
Ohio State fell short of the Big Ten championship again but made the playoff on the heels of wins against the toughest teams on its schedule: at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, and against Michigan at home. By most measures, Ohio State overachieved this season relative to last season's talent-laden team that failed to make the playoff. It won better games with less talent even as it matched last season's 11-1 regular season.
No matter what happens in Glendale at the end of the month, Ohio State fans can look to the future with some optimism. The 2017 schedule might be far more favorable than the 2016 schedule. It also privileges Ohio State over its main competition in the East, Michigan and Penn State.
| Date | Ohio State | Michigan | Penn State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2 | at Indiana | Florida [Arlington, TX] | Akron |
| Sept. 9 | Oklahoma | Cincinnati | Pittsburgh |
| Sept. 16 | Army | Air Force | Georgia State |
| Sept. 23 | UNLV | at Purdue | at Iowa |
| Sept. 30 | at Rutgers | BYE | Indiana |
| Oct. 7 | Maryland | Michigan State | at Northwestern |
| Oct. 14 | at Nebraska | at Indiana | BYE |
| Oct. 21 | BYE | at Penn State | Michigan |
| Oct. 28 | Penn State | Rutgers | at Ohio State |
| Nov. 4 | at Iowa | Minnesota | at Michigan State |
| Nov. 11 | Michigan State | at Maryland | Rutgers |
| Nov. 18 | Illinois | at Wisconsin | Nebraska |
| Nov. 25 | at Michigan | Ohio State | at Maryland |
Consider the schedules the schedules of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in the table to the right. Ohio State's schedule has its own potential stumbling blocks. It starts the season with a Big Ten road game, an unusual scheduling practice (starting the year with a conference game) that Ohio State has not had since 1976. The Buckeyes will at least have the full pre-season for preparation.
Ohio State follows that by hosting Oklahoma in the return leg of that series. Only Michigan has a comparable start to its season. It starts with two-time SEC East champion Florida in Arlington, Texas before playing its first home game against Cincinnati, a talented AAC team with a new head coach coming off a losing season.
However, Ohio State's schedule relative to the schedules for its biggest competition offers some discernible advantages. For one, Ohio State loses Northwestern and Wisconsin as Big Ten West opponents and gains Illinois and Iowa in their place. That's swapping the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the Big Ten West for the No. 3 and No. 6. Michigan makes a comparably beneficial swap out west by losing Illinois and Iowa and substituting them with Minnesota and Purdue. Penn State's swap of West teams will be less beneficial. It loses Minnesota and Purdue for Nebraska and Northwestern. It keeps Iowa from 2016's schedule but it goes to Iowa City next year. That could very well be a night game.
Other quirks of the schedule bode well for Ohio State. Ohio State has a bye after its first visit to Lincoln since 2011, which it will use to prepare for Penn State. There are multiple aspects of this game that bode well for Ohio State, chief among them its candidacy as a likely 8 p.m. kickoff for a "revenge" game. Penn State similarly had a bye before its game against Ohio State this season and used it to its advantage.
The Nittany Lions will have no such reprieve again before playing Ohio State. It hosts Michigan the Saturday before it goes to Columbus. Playing Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks is the figurative short end of the stick. Ask Rutgers.
Ohio State also has a small advantage over Michigan regarding its end-of-the-season matchup. Michigan hosts the Buckeyes next year, but it must travel to Wisconsin before the week before that game. Wisconsin, the Big Ten West champion and only West team remaining on Michigan's schedule from 2016, played Michigan tough in Ann Arbor before dropping a 14-7 decision.
Ohio State, meanwhile, will have its Senior Day the week before when it hosts Illinois. The Illini may see a second-year improvement under Lovie Smith but it will assuredly be a less challenging foe for Ohio State at home than Wisconsin will be for Michigan on the road.
Ohio State took the most inexperienced roster in the country to the playoffs in a year in which an Outback Bowl berth would have been a fair pre-season projection. It did that on the merits of road wins against the Big Ten West champions and the Big XII champions and a home win against a 10-win Orange Bowl team. Ohio State fans knew in advance the roster was green and the schedule would not be easy. It made the playoffs anyway.
Next year's path to the Big Ten championship and the playoff should be easier. The Buckeyes will lose some key players but next year's team will not be as inexperienced as this year's team. Importantly, the schedule offers some breaks to the 2017 Buckeyes that the 2016 Buckeyes did not enjoy. The teams it draws from the West will not be as challenging. It gets a bye before hosting Penn State like Penn State had before hosting Ohio State this year. Penn State has the added penalty of playing Michigan the Saturday before traveling to Columbus. It also plays Illinois before traveling to Michigan whereas Michigan will play Wisconsin on the road before hosting the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's run to the playoff in 2016 came against a lot of odds that will favor Ohio State in 2017.
