It’s not the College Football Playoff. It’s not the Rose Bowl. But it’s still a matchup between two of the most storied programs in college football.
Ohio State and USC – both teams that were considered preseason favorites to make the College Football Playoff and ended up winning their conference championships but lost two games during their regular seasons – are each set to make their second-ever appearances in the Cotton Bowl when the Buckeyes and Trojans play in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Friday night.
In the nearly four weeks between the playoff selection show on Dec. 3 and Friday night’s game, many of the storylines surrounding this game have been hashed out and rehashed over again. It’s been well-established that the Buckeyes were disappointed about not making the CFP. It’s also been well-established that the Buckeyes – like the Trojans – are excited about playing in Friday’s game, nonetheless, and that they expect their entire team to participate in the game even though there’s no national title on the line.
Now, though, it’s finally time to play the game, as each team will look to finish its season with a statement win and avoid ending the year with a third loss.
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11-2, 8-1 PAC-12 ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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8:30 P.M. – FRIDAY, DEC. 29 AT&T STADIUM DALLAS, TEXAS |
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ESPN WatchESPN |
Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker says "it shouldn’t be difficult at all" for his team to stay focused on the task of ending its season with a victory.
"This is one of the elite bowl games," Baker said. "To play a school like USC, that in itself is a big game. So even for guys who want to play at the next level, this is a chance to show what you got. I know as a team, we're taking it seriously. This is definitely a big game for us."
USC linebacker Cameron Smith said there "was almost a little more excitement than the playoff" when the Trojans found out they would be playing the Buckeyes, and USC linebacker Uchenna Nwosu echoed a similar sentiment to Baker when asked about his team’s intentions for the Cotton Bowl.
"This is still a big game," Nwosu said. "We have to play four quarters of offense, defense, and special teams. We can't take this lightly. This is a big game. We have to go out and dominate."
USC Breakdown
Ohio State’s defense has faced its share of tough opponents and had its share of tough games this season. The Buckeyes faced an Oklahoma offense that leads the nation in total yards per game (583.3) in their second game of the season. Iowa put up 55 points and 487 yards on the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s opponents this season have included the Heisman Trophy winner, in Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, and two of the nation’s best running backs in Penn State’s Saquon Barkley and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.
From an overall standpoint, however, Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano said the Buckeyes might not have faced any offense this year with more skill-position talent than USC.
"I think their skill is probably the best we’ve faced," Schiano said.
The headliner of USC’s offense is Sam Darnold, who is widely regarded to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football. While Darnold didn’t quite perform up to preseason Heisman Trophy expectations in his redshirt sophomore year – which could be his final year at USC, as he is projected to be a top pick if he declares for the 2018 NFL draft – he was still among the nation’s top passers, completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 3,787 yards and 26 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.
Darnold, along with Mayfield, is one of the two best quarterbacks that the Buckeyes will face this year, and Ohio State’s defenders have consistently made it clear that Darnold has their respect.
"Some of the throws he makes are just kind of ridiculous across the field, just how fast he throws the ball," said Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa. "You can see why people are impressed with him."
Ohio State defensive end Sam Hubbard said "after watching film, you can see why (Darnold) gets all the NFL hype."
"He can feel pressure and escape it while keeping his eyes downfield and make throws you don't usually see in college," Hubbard said. "Very good accuracy."
Facing Sam Darnold means facing one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football. John Hefti – USA TODAY Sports
USC combines Darnold’s passing ability with a talented crop of pass-catchers, led by junior wide receiver Deontay Burnett, who has caught 74 passes for 975 yards this season. The Trojans have five total receivers with at least 20 receptions and 300 receiving yards this year, also including redshirt freshman wideout Tyler Vaughns, redshirt senior receiver Steven Mitchell, sophomore receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and junior tight end Tyler Petite.
The other star of the Trojans’ offense, though, is running back Ronald Jones II, who ranks in the top 10 nationally in both rushing yards (1,486) and touchdowns (18) this season. And while Darnold draws most of the national attention when USC’s offense comes into conversation, Jones has certainly captured the attention of Ohio State and its defense.
"I think (Jones) is phenomenal, I really do," Schiano said. "Not just fast, strong, has an incredible feel right before he gets tackled."
Altogether, Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker said the speed of USC’s offensive playmakers stands out.
"When you watch their receivers, their running backs, even their line, they can move," Baker said. "They're really fast."
USC’s offense has had eight 500-yard games this season – including six of its last eight games – and scored 30 or more points in eight games. The Trojans’ offensive line, however, has been somewhat of a weakness, which could present a problem against Ohio State’s highly talented defensive line.
The bigger weakness for USC going into this game appears to be its defense, as the Trojans have allowed more than 400 yards per game and more than 26 points per game this season. The Trojans gave up 30 points and 462 yards in their first loss of the season against Washington State, and gave up 49 points and 497 yards in their second less of the year against Notre Dame.
With that being said, USC’s defense has shown plenty of ability to make big plays; the Trojans rank tied for second in the Football Bowl Subdivision with 43 sacks and also have 16 interceptions this year. So while the Trojans defense has certainly given up too many plays, and needs to be better than it has been in many previous games this season in order to beat Ohio State, the Buckeyes aren’t looking at the USC defense as a unit it should walk all over.
"I see an athletic defense, guys that play well together, and I feel like nothing will come easy against them," said Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins.
Two players who stand out on the Trojans’ defense, Dobbins said, are outside linebacker Nwosu and safety Marvell Tell III. Other stars on the Trojans defense include Smith, who leads the Trojans with 102 total tackles, and defensive end Rasheem Green, who leads the Trojans with 11.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks.
The Trojans are expected to be without one of their most talented defensive players, outside linebacker Porter Gustin, who has played in just four games this year due to a toe injury. The Trojans could also be without cornerback Jack Jones, who leads the team with four interceptions but will be a game-time decision on Friday due to an ankle injury. USC does not expect, however, that any of its players will voluntarily choose to sit out the Cotton Bowl.
Buckeye Breakdown
Considering the star players that USC has on offense, the spotlight falls squarely on Ohio State’s defense as the Buckeyes enter into their final game of the season.
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| OFFENSE | ||||
| 42.5 | 5th | POINTS FOR | 34.5 | 24th |
| 249.4 | 15th | RUSHING OFFENSE | 194.9 | 36th |
| 274.2 | 28th | PASSING OFFENSE | 294.6 | 19th |
| 523.6 | 6th | TOTAL OFFENSE | 489.5 | 15th |
| .486 | 5th | 3rd DOWNS | .421 | 45th |
| .894 | 26th | RED ZONE | .764 | 106th |
| DEFENSE | ||||
| 19.9 | 22nd | POINTS ALLOWED | 26.3 | 60th |
| 108.8 | 7th | RUSH DEFENSE | 158.3 | 57th |
| 183.5 | 18th | PASS DEFENSE | 246.5 | 97th |
| 111.8 | 17th | PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE | 121.6 | 41st |
| 292.3 | 8th | TOTAL DEFENSE | 404.8 | 76th |
| .321 | 17th | 3rd DOWNS | .369 | 49th |
| .778 | 27th | RED ZONE | .700 | 4th |
| SPECIAL TEAMS | ||||
| 5.7 | 96th | PUNT RETURN | 12.0 | 18th |
| 24.2 | 19th | KICKOFF RETURN | 23.5 | 22nd |
| 41.4 | 11th | NET PUNTING | 36.9 | 90th |
| MISCELLANEOUS | ||||
| + 0.2 | 59th | TURNOVER MARGIN | + 0.1 | 66th |
| 7.2 | 108th | PENALTIES | 8.0 | 123rd |
| 15 | EDGE | 3 | ||
Ohio State’s struggles against elite quarterbacks over the past 365 days have been well-noted, as the Buckeyes lost to Mayfield earlier this year and Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in the Fiesta Bowl to end last season, so the Buckeyes’ passing defense – which has allowed an average of only 183.5 passing yards per game, but battled inconsistency – will go into Friday’s game with something to prove.
Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer believes putting pressure on Darnold will be key to keeping the USC’s passing offense in check.
"If you give him time, with the receivers they have, you won't stop him," Meyer said. "That's not going to happen. You can't design a coverage that's going to take away these excellent receivers and a top-two pick in the NFL draft.
"It's the ability to disrupt the quarterback, make him reset his feet, make him move, get a hand on him. That's going to be key to this game and any time you face a very good quarterback. In those games (against Oklahoma and Clemson), we weren't able to do that."
One repeated issue for Ohio State’s passing defense this season, as Schiano acknowledges, has been its ability to cover tight ends as well as running backs out of the backfield. And while USC’s top four pass-catchers this season are wide receivers, Schiano says the Trojans throw to their tight ends and running backs enough for that to be a concern. He also believes, though, that the Buckeyes should be able to play better in that area.
"It really hasn’t been where you say hey, there’s one technique area that’s getting us in trouble," Schiano said in regards to Ohio State’s struggles covering tight ends and backs. "It’s really been a combination of not doing our job and sometimes trying to do more than our job."
As for the threat of Ronald Jones against Ohio State’s rushing defense, Schiano says that is also an area where the Buckeyes need to be assignment sound in order to avoid giving up big plays.
"If we misfit a run, we’re in trouble," Schiano said. "So we got to fit the runs properly, and then we got to tackle a very physical back. And then his backup (Stephen Carr) is a really good running back. Most teams, he’s a starter. So if he gets tired, they bring the backup in, that’s going to be a challenge as well."
Ohio State’s defense will be put to the test in many areas on Friday, but USC’s offense expects the Buckeyes to give them a stout challenge as well.
"They have pass-rushers and they have athletic linebackers," said USC offensive coordinator Tee Martin. "I think Ohio State has done a good job throughout the year of adjusting to different type quarterbacks that are dual-threat guys, pocket guys. They seem to always have a plan for guys, and we’ll adjust to it and see what it takes to give ourselves a chance to win."
USC head coach Clay Helton said Ohio State’s depth on defense, particularly on its defensive front, stands out.
"To be able to have a guy coming off the bench basically as a pass rusher in Bosa and leading your team in sacks is beyond impressive," Helton said.
Nick Bosa and the rest of Ohio State's pass-rushers will look to get after USC quarterback Sam Darnold on Friday night.
No matter how well Ohio State’s defense plays, it’s likely that Darnold and Jones will make at least some plays that lead to points, so it’s crucial that Ohio State’s offense – which has been much better statistically than USC’s defense, but has also battled inconsistency – plays up to its ability on Friday as well.
The spotlight when Ohio State has the ball, of course, will be on J.T. Barrett, as the decorated fifth-year senior quarterback will be one of many Buckeyes playing their final game in the scarlet and gray.
While Dobbins and Mike Weber running the ball, wide receivers making plays catching the ball and the offensive line sticking its blocks might all be just as important to Ohio State’s success as an offense on Friday, it will be the final time of many that the Buckeyes’ offensive coaches build a game plan around Barrett, which makes it presumable that they will want to put Barrett in position to make as many plays as possible.
Helton, however, says the Buckeyes’ entire offense gives him concerns.
"Being a quarterback coach by trade, I'm just so impressed with J.T. His experience, his leadership, his dynamics and charisma on the field are just evident. And to be a guy that can rush for 700 yards and still be a 3,000-yard passer, that's pretty darn special," Helton said. "And then you've got to try to stop J.K. [Dobbins] and Mike [Weber] along with that, with about six receivers who are as good as anybody in the country. A very complete football team, a very well-coached football team. We'll have our hands full Friday night."
Meyer said Thursday that he does not expect any Buckeyes (other than those who suffered previous season-ending injuries) to miss Friday's game due to injuries or opting out.
How It Plays Out
A look at the identical records for the two teams going into Friday’s game suggests that it should be a close if not evenly matched game. Ohio State and USC were arguably the two most deserving teams not to make the College Football Playoff, and either one of them will have a claim to being a top-five team in the nation this year with a 12th win in the Cotton Bowl.
A closer look at the schedules and statistics, however, suggest that Ohio State could have the edge. While there’s a case to be made for USC entering this game with the better offense, Ohio State appears to clearly have the better defense, and the Buckeyes have proven themselves against tougher competition – with two wins against teams ranked in the top nine of the final CFP rankings – than the Trojans, whose best wins this year have been a pair of victories over No. 13 Stanford.
Ohio State’s defense has had its ups and downs this year, so it’s easy to see this game turning into an offensive shootout. What seems unlikely, though, is USC shutting down Ohio State’s offense, considering the Trojans’ inconsistency against both the pass and the run.
The big question going into a non-playoff bowl game, especially for a team like Ohio State that had national championship aspirations, is whether the team will be motivated to play at its best. But that shouldn’t be a problem if the Buckeyes, who have consistently talked about their desire to send their seniors out with a win and finish the season strong alongside their brothers, walk the walk like they’ve talked the talk.
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 37, USC 24
