Last November Curtis Samuel galloped into the endzone to clinch the most exciting Ohio State-Michigan game since 2013.
His teammates mobbed him and Ohio Stadium raucously celebrated a classic edition of The Game sealed on its final play. It would be the last touchdown the Buckeyes would score in 2016.
Three years earlier Tyvis Powell broke 100,000 local hearts simultaneously at the goal line. Ohio State covered up the ensuing onside kick and the game was over. His undefeated Buckeyes would advance to the B1G Title Game and Orange Bowl. They lost both.
Michigan's heartbreaking losses are apparently contagious.
Samuel and Powell delivered two of the most iconic moments in the rivalry's rich history. Their timeless feats of football heroism saved Ohio from the sum of all fears - a loss to Michigan, and in the most agonizing of circumstances: A 50/50 battle that hinged on a single play at the game's climax. They're frozen in time among the greatest moments in Buckeye football history...as long as you blind yourself to what happened next.
That's because those two Buckeye teams combined to go 0-3 in their respective postseason games. And those losses are not outliers over the past 30 years, either - they're the norm, as there is a mystifying trend between close/bad Michigan games and even worse Decembers and Januarys.
Ohio State has lost to, tied or narrowly defeated Michigan (narrowly = by one score or less) 16 times over the past three decades. It has only won 25% of the time after those games.
| YEAR | THE GAME OUTCOME | POSTSEASON RESULTS |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | W: OSU 30 UM 27 (2OT) | L: 31-0 vs. Clemson in Fiesta Bowl |
| 2013 | W: OSU 42 UM 41 | L(2): B1G CG, Orange Bowl |
| 2011 | L: UM 40 OSU 34 | L: 24-17 vs. Florida in Taxslayer Bowl |
| 2006 | W: OSU 42 UM 39 | L: 41-14 vs. Florida in BCS Title |
| 2005 | W: OSU 25 UM 21 | W: 34-20 vs. Notre Dame in Fiesta Bowl |
| 2002 | W: OSU 14 UM 9 | W: 31-24 (2OT) vs. Miami in Fiesta Bowl |
| 2001 | W: OSU 26 UM 20 | L: 31-28 vs. South Carolina in Outback Bowl |
| 2000 | L: UM 38 OSU 26 | L: 24-7 vs. South Carolina in Outback Bowl |
| 1997 | L: UM 20 OSU 14 | L: 31-14 vs. Florida State in Sugar Bowl |
| 1996 | L: UM 13 OSU 9 | W: 20-17 vs. Arizona State in Rose Bowl |
| 1995 | L: UM 31 OSU 23 | L: 20-14 vs. Tennessee in Citrus Bowl |
| 1993 | L: UM 28 OSU 0 | W: 28-21 vs. BYU in Holiday Bowl |
| 1992 | T: OSU 13 UM 13 | L: 21-14 vs. Georgia in Citrus Bowl |
| 1991 | L: UM 31 OSU 3 | L: 24-17 vs. Syracuse in Hall of Fame Bowl |
| 1990 | L: UM 16 OSU 13 | L: 23-11 vs. Air Force in Liberty Bowl |
| 1989 | L: UM 28 OSU 18 | L: 31-14 vs. Auburn in Hall of Fame Bowl |
| LAST 30 YEARS | 16 close wins + losses | 4-13 postseason record |
For those of you who take offense to combining losses and close wins against Michigan - yeah you're right, they're not even close to being the same thing - the numbers don't improve when you separate them: The Buckeyes are a dismal 2-5 in the postseason following nailbiters and an absolutely dreadful/Purdue-ish 2-8 after losses.
Conversely - and Praise Be to Jim Tressel - Ohio State has beaten Michigan to within an inch of shedding its outdated arrogance nine glorious times (defined as double-digits/commanding victory) over the same span. The postseason results following those blowouts have been remarkably better:
| YEAR | BIG WIN OVER MICHIGAN | POSTSEASON RESULTS |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | OSU 42 UM 13 | W: 44-28 vs. Notre Dame in Fiesta Bowl |
| 2014 | OSU 42 UM 28 | W(3): B1G CG, Sugar Bowl, CFP |
| 2010 | OSU 37 UM 7 | W: 31-26 vs. Arkansas in Sugar Bowl |
| 2009 | OSU 21 UM 10 | W: 26-17 vs. Oregon in Rose Bowl |
| 2008 | OSU 47 UM 7 | L: 24-21 vs. Texas in Fiesta Bowl |
| 2007 | OSU 14 UM 3 | L: 38-24 vs. LSU in BCS CG |
| 2004 | OSU 37 UM 21 | W: 33-7 vs. Oklahoma State in Alamo Bowl |
| 1998 | OSU 31 UM 16 | W: 24-14 vs. Texas A&M in Sugar Bowl |
| 1994 | OSU 22 UM 6 | L: 24-17 vs. Alabama in Citrus Bowl |
| LAST 30 YEARS | Nine comfortable wins | 8-3 postseason record |
Even if you remove Ohio State's 3-0 run to conclude 2014 (and why in the hell would you ever do that) Buckeyes that have blown out Wolverines still have more postseason wins than the ones who eeked out wins and lost to Michigan, combined.
Among those three losses, Ohio State blew its lead against Alabama with under 5 minutes left. It gave away that Texas game in the closing minutes as well. Dominating Michigan has been the strongest indicator of a strong finish over the past three decades.
Squeaking by has not been kind. Losing has been disastrous; a double-whammy on the season.So simply beating Michigan isn't enough.
A guy named Urban Meyer put it best back in 2012:
When you look at the results, ripping their hearts out in a tenuous, epic battle could be damaging to Ohio State in the postseason - whether it's due to peaking too early or getting dangerously satisfied with the season while it's still in progress.
So Michigan must be dominated on the final Saturday of November. Demoralized. Destroyed. Ground into a fine paste. It's about more than just pride.
