Ohio State's season begins at the end of the month with a road game in Bloomington that Ohio State fans will hope is the first step in a road toward a return to the playoff and another national championship. By any measure, Ohio State exceeded expectations last year even if the Fiesta Bowl is one to forget. Ohio State fans are credibly thinking playoff, and even national championship, in 2017.
Here, we provide five reasons why Ohio State will win a national championship by season's end. Also, here are five reasons why Ohio State won't win a national championship in 2017.
Five Reasons Ohio State Will Win It All
Ohio State Made Playoff Last Year in a "Rebuilding" Year
Ohio State knew 2016 would be a rebuilding year after the bulk of the draft-ineligible 2014 national championship squad bolted for the NFL after 2015. Phil Steele pegged the 2016 Buckeyes as the most inexperienced program in the country last year relative to the experienced championship squad that returned for 2015.
By some measure, the 2016 team was more successful than the 2015 team. At least, last year's Buckeyes made the playoff despite this major limitation entering the season. This bodes well for a return in 2017.
Ohio State May Have Best Coaching Staff in Football
Buckeye fans who remember well the tail end of the Tressel years should appreciate that the strength of the program might be in the coaching staff underneath Meyer. The assistant coaching staff is arguably the best it has ever been. That's an important metric that separates good programs from elite programs capable of competing for national championships every year.
The coordinators are about as good as one can find. Both have important head-coaching experience. Kevin Wilson has a sterling track record running offenses at Oklahoma before running Indiana's offense for six years as the Hoosiers' head coach. Greg Schiano coordinated Miami's late-1990s defenses and prominently served as Rutgers' head coach. He was even an NFL head coach, an experience that's transformative for coaches who return to the college level.
Ohio State's new quarterbacks coach has a good track record as well. Ryan Day was an underappreciated coordinator for Boston College in 2013 and 2014 before spending the last two years in the NFL working under Chip Kelly, his former coach at New Hampshire.
Ohio State Was Deceptively Brilliant Last Year
Ohio State made several important adjustments to its coaching staff despite being deceptively brilliant on several metrics in 2016.
Fans bemoaned how meager and inexperienced the offense was in 2016 relative to expectations. However, that 2016 offense was still the No. 13 scoring offense, No. 31 total offense, and No. 11 rushing offense in college football last year. Only Michigan bested Ohio State's scoring offense by .9 points a game in the conference.
The defense was even better. Ohio State had the No. 3 scoring defense, No. 7 passing defense, and No. 6 total defense in the country despite fielding a defense of largely unknowns. Replacing the talent that emerged at secondary concerns fans and coaches in fall camp, but last year's unit should inspire confidence about the quality of replacements.
Only Alabama Has Recruited Better
| Rank | Team | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 313.62 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 293.69 |
| 3 | Florida State | 290.30 |
| 4 | Southern California | 286.28 |
| 5 | Clemson | 257.26 |
| 6 | Penn State | 237.37 |
| 7 | Washington | 212.43 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 252.40 |
Programs like Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington have shown themselves capable of breaking into the playoff picture despite their meager recruiting rankings. Ohio State has shown its capable of winning the playoff picture because of its stellar recruiting rankings.
The table shows the average four-year (2014-2017) composite rankings for the top eight teams in the Coaches Poll. Alabama, the preseason No. 1, is the clear leader of the pack. Ohio State is the clear No. 2.
Further, recent history suggests Ohio State can hang with Alabama should that matchup come to fruition in the playoff.
A More Favorable Schedule
Ohio State made the playoff in 2016 with one of the most inexperienced teams in the country and one of the toughest schedules in football. The roster will be more experienced and the road to the playoff will be arguably easier.
The key stretch will be at the end of October this year. Last year, Ohio State had back-to-back road games in Madison and Happy Valley. Penn State had two weeks to prepare for an upset that ultimately handed Penn State the Big Ten Championship Game berth. This year, Ohio State gets the bye before that clash and the home game while Penn State plays Michigan the week before that contest.
Elsewhere, Ohio State hosts Oklahoma in Week 2 after it traveled to Norman last year. It cycles out Wisconsin as a B1G West opponent but adds Illinois for the final home game on the season. One caveat here: Nebraska, Iowa, and Michigan are all road games this year.
Five Reasons Ohio State Won't Win It All
There's Still Alabama
Alabama has every superlative we give to Ohio State and is arguably even better.
For example, Ohio State was the youngest/most inexperienced team in the country and still made the playoff. Alabama was also near the bottom in experience entering the 2016 season—it even had a true freshman at quarterback—and was undefeated before falling to Clemson in the championship game.
Alabama's schedule provides some challenges but it is mostly favorable. The season-opener against No. 3 Florida State stands out but the rest of the non-conference schedule, per SEC custom, includes cupcakes like Fresno State, Colorado State, and Mercer. The road contests at Texas A&M and Auburn stand out but the Tide get Tennessee, LSU, and Arkansas at home.
Further, Alabama's coaching staff is excellent top to bottom as well despite some major reshuffling from last season. Jeremy Pruitt was Florida State's defensive coordinator for its 2013 national championship team and Brian Daboll brings NFL bona fides with him to the offensive coordinator position.
Ohio State may be a solid pick to make the playoff but Alabama is a credible reason why Ohio State may not win the playoff.
Important Uncertainty at OL
Ohio State fans who remember a performance to forget from J.T. Barrett last year may forget that major problems on the offensive line inhibited what he could do. Every snap in that Clemson game started with a first read to check if the right tackle was beaten again before he could look down the field and go through his progressions.
Offensive line is an important position to get right, but major holes on the roster right now at right guard and major questions at right tackle should dampen optimism about how far the team could go in 2017.
No Clear "Deep Threat" at WR
Ohio State won a national championship in 2014 in large part because Devin Smith was a credible deep threat that could incinerate even Alabama's secondary. Ohio State has not had that kind of threat since he left.
There is some optimism that wide receiver play will be better in 2017 than it was last year, down to the little and important things like spacing and taking advantage of the middle of the field. Johnnie Dixon even looked the part of a deep threat for the first time in his nascent career.
Ohio State's passing game should be much better than it was but it's not yet clear it has the kind of home run threat that could propel the Buckeyes to a national championship in 2017.
There's a Loss Somewhere on the Schedule
Urban Meyer has two undefeated seasons in his entire coaching career (2004, 2012) but no national championship followed either seasons. All three of his national championships came with midseason losses to Auburn (2006), Ole Miss (2008), or Virginia Tech (2014).
In other words, there's likely a loss somewhere on the schedule. These are potential "traps" at Nebraska or at Iowa and include a big-time season-ending matchup in Ann Arbor. Given Michigan's expectations, an Ohio State loss to end the regular season might bar the Buckeyes from making the Big Ten Championship Game again.
This coincides with another reason why Ohio State will not win it all in 2017.
No Margin for Error After Last Year
Ohio State defied expectations by making the playoff last year as the first representative in the three-year playoff history to not be a conference champion. It promptly played like cold garbage, resulting in criticisms after the fact that Ohio State's position as the playoff No. 3 seed should have gone to another program.
It was also the second year in which the Big Ten fell flat on its face in the playoff. Michigan State upset Ohio State in 2015 to bar the Buckeyes from the Big Ten Championship Game and the playoff. It too was blanked in an embarrassing loss to the eventual national champions.
This does lead to some worry that Ohio State will have to be undefeated to make the playoff again. Alabama will likely be undefeated entering the playoff. Florida State may have that one loss to Alabama and, depending on how ugly that contest is, could still make the playoff with a (likely) undefeated campaign through the ACC. Southern California could grab the third spot as the Pac-12 favorite.
That leaves Ohio State as a likely fourth participant, but with no margin for error. It would need to win the conference. It likely needs that win over Oklahoma as well since the Sooners are Big XII favorites.
