With Urban Meyer's status officially resolved, I know many of you want to get back to focusing on football.
All due to respect to that story of seismic proportions, we're going to embark on our first 11W roundtable of the 2018 season with a mission of focusing on just about everything but the Zach Smith saga.
So let's get right to it as I welcome beat writer extraordinaire Dan Hope, Dubcast host Johnny Ginter and a recruiting news sponge worthy of your follow, Andrew Ellis.
J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber give Ohio State one of the best tailback tandems in the country. How do you see the rushing load being split? Should we expect both to have about the same number of carries if healthy on a per game basis? Will both make a run at 1,000 yards? Why or why not?
Dan: I expect the workload to be split about as evenly as possible between Dobbins and Weber, as long as both are healthy, unless one back starts clearly outperforming the other, at which point I expect the Buckeyes to give more carries to the hot hand. Combined, I think they will easily surpass 2,000 rushing yards, but I'm going to guess that only Dobbins will surpass the 1,000-yard mark, though I'd expect Weber to come close. Both are great backs, but if Dobbins can build off of what he did last year as a true freshman and perform even better as a sophomore, he will ultimately emerge as the lead back among the pair.
Andrew: I expect the load to be split somewhere in the 60/40 range in favor of J.K. Dobbins. Simply put I think Dobbins is the better all-around back and brings more explosiveness to the equation. I can see Weber being utilized pretty heavily in the red zone, however.
I do think both can hit 1,000 yards this season. Obviously a lot of that may depend on if the Buckeyes make the playoff, but Sony Michel and Nick Chubb did it last year with Chubb getting just about 60 percent of the carries. It could be a similar story for Ohio State in 2018.
Johnny: I think that J.K. Dobbins will get the lion's share of the carries in 2018, and that's mostly a function of him being better than Mike Weber. Which is more of a statement about Dobbins than Weber; Mike would be the starting running back on roughly 95% of the teams in the country, but 95% of the teams in the country don't have a 1400 yard rusher on their team.
With that said, I absolutely expect both Weber and Dobbins to make a run (hilarious pun) at 1000 yards because there's no way the collective brainpower of Ryan Day, Urban Meyer, and Kevin Wilson decide to have Dwayne Haskins rush the ball over 160 times in 2018, as J.T. Barrett did last season. Give just 60 or so of those carries to Mike Weber, and he'd have gotten to 1000 yards. With the running backs (hopefully) shouldering more of the running game in 2018, I expect both Dobbins and Weber to hit that mark.
While it’s crystal clear what OSU has at running back, the definitive guys at receiver are more murky. Which two guys lead the team in receiving yards when the dust settles on the season? Will Brian Hartline employ the same deep rotation as Zach Smith or might he shorten it up a bit?
Johnny: It would make sense to shorten up the rotation to allow Haskins to develop a good rapport with his receivers. Young quarterbacks, even young quarterbacks as talented as Haskins, will need a security blanket of one or two veteran guys to bail him out of the requisite bad throws and poor decisions that come with the territory. Parris Campbell, Bin Victor, and K.J. Hill should see heavy playing time, and, in a nice bit of serendipity, can also fill in a lot of different receiving roles.
Dan: At this time last year, I predicted that Austin Mack would lead Ohio State in receiving yards; he ended up finishing sixth, but I'm still bullish on his potential, so I'm going to predict that Mack will be among the top two. I'll say that Parris Campbell will also be among the top two, because while I don't necessarily see him becoming the leading receiver in this year's offense – which I think will be more predicated on downfield passing with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback – he has a clear standing as a leader not only in the receiver room, but among the entire team, and he'll make his share of big plays that boost his yardage total.
I think the receiver rotation will probably still be six-deep (and maybe even seven-deep to include C.J. Saunders), but I also think Hartline might be more inclined to make decisions about who his best receivers are and keep them on the field more than the others in close games, whereas Smith tended to stick to his rotation very strictly.
Andrew: I’ve got Parris Campbell and Austin Mack as the two leading pass-catchers this season. Campbell isn’t likely to lead the team in receptions, but his big-play ability should be good for plenty of YAC. I think Mack and Haskins have a bit of a rapport going – as we saw last year in Ann Arbor – so he’s my pick for the team lead in receptions and should battle Campbell when it comes to yardage.
I still see a pretty heavy rotation this year, though maybe slightly less than a season ago. There are just so many guys who can contribute – even though none of them are elite – and it will be tough to keep players like Binjimen Victor and Johnnie Dixon off the field.
The position group with the least amount of proven performers might be linebacker. Is there one guy you think might be on verge of breaking out this year? Who and why?
Andrew: Baron Browning is my pick. He’s likely the most talented linebacker on the roster and the opportunity is certainly there for him to make a splash. I do think he’s more suited for the outside, but he may end up being the starting middle linebacker against Oregon State. A former five-star, he was more touted than any other player at the position and the athleticism is off the charts.
Johnny: Whoever it is will have to do it quickly. The unit was torched against Iowa, and Ohio State just lost the coach in charge of the unit that had to cover up the linebacker's mistakes. I'm pretty high on Tuf Borland, but coming back from an injury is never fun, and it remains to be seem just how much he will be able to contribute at the beginning of the season. Malik Harrison has a ton of talent, but it will be interesting to see if he can be the focal point of the linebacking corps.
Dan: I think Baron Browning has the most potential to be a breakout star this season, but it's uncertain whether he'll even be in the starting lineup. The linebacker who I think could end up having the biggest year of all, though, is Malik Harrison, who appears primed to start at either strongside or weakside linebacker. Harrison is one of the best athletes on the entire team, and he demonstrates the ability to be both a playmaker as a pass-rusher and in coverage, which could make him a three-down linebacker and perhaps the most productive linebacker on the team.
With J.T. Barrett out of eligibility, it looks like Dwayne Haskins is set to take over at quarterback. What kind of season do your foresee for Haskins and what concerns you the most about having to break in a first-year starter at the most important position in football?
Dan: For the most part, I believe Haskins will perform up to the hype. He has huge upside as a passer, and appears to have the mental makeup to not only handle, but thrive in, the spotlight of being the quarterback at Ohio State. He exudes confidence in interviews and on social media, and his teammates seem to gravitate around that. The biggest question I have about Haskins is his decision-making, and whether he will be able to avoid costly turnovers, because I believe his confidence could get him in trouble at times. For Ohio State fans, that might be a welcome trade-off for more big downfield plays in the passing game, but it will be a concern for coaches if he can't consistently take care of the football.
Johnny: Boeckman-esque is how I think I'd describe what I expect to see from Haskins this year. Lots of yards, some great throws, and some really boneheaded decisisions that come at inopportune times. Which is fine! It's his first full year at quarterback, and he'll have a great safety net in Weber and Dobbins in case things go sideways. Which also means that if Haskins is attempting 25 or 30 passes a game, I'd start to worry. He has the luxury of not having to be The Guy on offense, and the coaches should lean into that.
Andrew: I actually have very few concerns regarding Haskins. I love the confidence I’ve seen from him so far, but I suppose there will be some instances where he trusts his arm too much and that may lead to some interceptions. I see him throwing for about 225 per game along with two or three scores. A strong running game will likely hurt his passing stats a bit, but I imagine Haskins will find the end zone with his legs 5+ times as well.
Pick a true freshman to have the most meaningful impact on this season. Who you got and why?
Andrew: Jeremy Ruckert is the pick for me. Ohio State has a number of players fighting for playing time at tight end, but I don’t think anyone doubts that Ruckert is more talented than than the rest. I’m not sure how early he will see the field, but by the middle of the season it would hardly be a surprise if he’s the starting tight end. He’s unlike any other player they’ve had since Meyer’s arrival.
Dan: My pick is Jeremy Ruckert, because I believe he is the true freshman who offers the most ability that veteran players on the roster don't already have. While Luke Farrell is in line to be Ohio State's starting tight end, and Ruckert's playing time could depend on how well he is able to block, he has a level of receiving playmaking ability that none of Ohio State's other tight ends have, and could cause problems for defenses by creating mismatches with his size and athleticism. As such, I expect his role to consistently grow over the course of the season, and I think he could emerge as a significant weapon in the passing game by the end of the year.
Johnny: I am really excited to see what some of the younger guys on the interior of the defensive line can do. Tommy Togiai and Taron Vincent in that rotation, particularly with what the Buckeyes can bring on the ends, could end up doing a ton of damage to opposing running backs once they're fully weaponized.
You’re given unilateral power for one day to make any change to college football, on the field or off. What’s your move?
Johnny: Allow players to profit off of their likenesses and sell their own property. I understand that the logistics behind actually cutting players a paycheck are more difficult than people tend to appreciate; it's a legitimate point and definitely complicates the issue. That's fine (even though I still support it), but at the bare minimum a player of any sport should have free reign to do endorsements and sell their own property. You could even put restrictions on it and say that they can't endorse, say, a strip club, but putting it above board and granting these adults a basic right seems like the bare minimum that the NCAA and college sports in general could do.
The restrictions on endorsements and property rights are unfair and based on a ridiculously antiquated notion of amateurism that expired with the advent of cable news and the expectation that student athletes be media representatives for their universities. Your typical student-athlete at a place like Ohio State in 2018 has responsibilities way beyond anything that a student-athlete in the 50's ever had to deal with, and because of that should be able to take initiative and profit off their increased visibility (if they choose to).
Andrew: I am fully aware of the CTE issues and the efforts being made to minimize contact to the head, but I really think the targeting rules need to be fixed. One officiating crew may throw a flag for a hit while a different crew may elect not to. That’s going to happen and I understand it. I would suggest a different system to penalize the offending team/player. Some of the ejections have been pretty ridiculous and I’d like to see some tweaks as to how it’s enforced; especially on bang-bang plays.
Dan: Personally, I believe that all college athletes should be able to profit off of their own likeness. They shouldn't necessarily be paid salaries, but if they want to sign endorsement deals or sell memorabilia, they should have free reign to do so. Scandals like Tattoo-Gate wouldn't have to be a thing anymore, the NCAA Football video game could come back and star athletes would be able to make the money they deserve based off of their market value. Critics would argue that isn't fair to all athletes, but the real world isn't fair, and in my opinion, that is the best solution to allow the athletes who make at least a portion of their worth without bankrupting college sports programs that don't make the revenue to pay athletes (beyond scholarships) directly.
Which game is the toughest on the schedule?
Dan: This won't be a popular opinion here on Eleven Warriors, but I think Michigan is a serious contender to win the Big Ten and make a College Football Playoff run this year. The Wolverines' defense is one of the best in the country, and Shea Patterson should be a major upgrade at quarterback. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Big Ten East title is on the line for both teams when Ohio State plays Michigan on Nov. 24, and I believe that could be the toughest game on the Buckeyes' schedule. Playing at Ohio Stadium could make a Michigan win less likely, but the Wolverines are good enough on both sides of the ball to be a legitimate championship contender this year, and this could be a make-or-break season for Jim Harbaugh.
Andrew: Ohio State hosts Michigan on Nov. 24 and I view that as the toughest game of the season. Penn State may be a better team than the Wolverines in 2018, but Michigan is going to have a damn good defense and should actually have a competent quarterback when the team heads to Columbus. Glad the Buckeyes get their rivals at home, but it could be another nail-biter like we saw in 2016.
Johnny: Penn State on September 29th and it isn't close. It's a road game against a really talented team, it'll be at night, it'll be a whiteout, it's a revenge game for them, and it's a game that will have national implications. The only real saving grace is that it's late enough in the year that the Buckeyes should have had enough time at that point to figure out their rotations and plays on offense and defense, but early enough that things like injuries and so on haven't started to become a signficiant problem.
Does this team win the Big Ten East? Big Ten title? Earn a CFP bid? Give us an overall season record noting key wins and losses.
Johnny: If Ohio State wins the Big Ten East, they'll be heavy favorites to win the Big Ten title, and having done that, they will hopefully be a lock for the CFP (although, of course, that wasn't a guarantee last year). Never underestimate the Urban Meyer coaching staff, but I think the first item on that list will be the most difficult. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are all going to be heavy lifts, and even if the Buckeyes beat all of those teams, as we saw last season, there's always the potential for an incredibly traumatizing brain fart against a crappy team at the worst possible time. If I'm making predictions, I'll give the team a 10-2 regular season with a loss against Penn State and one random dumb team (maybe even TCU in what's a functional road game), but still making a New Year's Bowl.
Dan: I think the Buckeyes will lose at least one game over the course of the regular season, and it might be a game they really shouldn't lose – such as Purdue – as has often been the case in recent years. If Ohio State can win the aforementioned game against Michigan, though, I believe the Buckeyes can go 11-1 in the regular season and win the Big Ten East, follow that up with a Big Ten Championship Game win over Wisconsin and make the College Football Playoff. However, I believe Alabama and Clemson will be the two best teams in college football this year once again, so my prediction is that the Buckeyes will fall in the CFP semifinals, finishing the year with a 12-2 record.
Andrew: I think Ohio State will finish the regular season with one loss (at Penn State) but will still capture the East Division and then defeat Wisconsin for the conference title. This obviously means that Penn State would need to lose two games and I can see that happening with one coming at Michigan and another one elsewhere on the schedule.
I’ll say the Buckeyes make it to the College Football Playoff only to be defeated by the eventual champion Georgia Bulldogs. Final season record will be 12-2.
