Win and they're in. Most likely, anyway.
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6-1 ROSTER / SCHEDULE |
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NOON – SATURDAY, DEC. 12 LUCAS OIL STADIUM INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA |
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FOX FOX SPORTS GO |
The Buckeyes are set to do battle with Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game at noon (FOX), and if they come out with a victory – especially if they do so convincingly – they are likely to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Once again, there's questions about who might not be available for Ohio State due to positive COVID-19 tests, though we do know Justin Fields made the trip. Those questions will be answered at 10:45 a.m., when Ohio State will release its status report for Saturday's game, but we aren't waiting any longer to share our final thoughts, questions and predictions going into the Buckeyes' matchup with the Wildcats as game day begins.
Final thoughts
Ohio State's fourth straight Big Ten title almost feels like a formality
Ohio State has a chance to become the first team to ever win four consecutive outright Big Ten championships – breaking its own record – and the first team to win four consecutive Big Ten championships of any sort (outright or shared) since it won five straight from 2005-09, and yet it feels like something the Buckeyes are simply expected to do more than it feels like a potentially historic achievement.
That says as much about the rest of the Big Ten as it does about Ohio State, as there simply isn't any other team in the conference that's viewed as a national contender right now, and until that changes, the Buckeyes are going to be expected to win the conference year in and year out. If they don't beat Northwestern to win their fourth straight Big Ten title on Saturday, it would be viewed a massive disappointment.
As Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said himself this week, though, “there's a reason why you play the game.” So while Saturday's conference title game might be seen as a means to an end (with that end being the College Football Playoff) for the Buckeyes more than anything else, a Big Ten Championship Game four-peat is still an accomplishment that deserves to be well-celebrated if Ohio State can make it happen.
– Dan Hope
To pull a shocker, Northwestern has to turn Justin Fields over
Not breaking news or anything. But Northwestern’s Peyton Ramsey-led offense can’t possibly go blow for blow with a Justin Fields-led Ohio State offense if the Wildcats aren’t turning the star quarterback over. The issue? Only one team has ever done so effectively – Indiana – and it happened when the Hoosiers were blitzing the daylights out of Fields.
Northwestern won’t send nearly as many guys after Fields, who has thrown six interceptions in 19 games as a Buckeye. Can the Pat Fitzgerald’s boys force Fields to make mistakes anyway in defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz’s swan song? They’re banking on it.
Nationally, the Wildcats trail only one team – again, Indiana – in interceptions per game with 1.71. They’ll need a couple to pull an upset on Saturday.
– Colin Hass-Hill
Northwestern isn't ready for this Buckeye offense
The storyline of this game is Northwestern's stingy and stout defense against Ohio State's explosive offense, but I'm not all that convinced the Wildcats are prepared for what they're about to face.
Northwestern has statistically one of the top defenses in the country, but the best offense its faced so far has been Iowa, which ranks No. 38 in the nation, averaging 31.8 points per game. Ohio State, meanwhile, averages more than two touchdowns more per game, sitting at No. 4 in the country with 46.6 points per game.
On the flip side, Northwestern has the No. 3 scoring defense in the country, giving up only 14.6 points per game, but the Buckeyes actually have faced a comparable defense against Indiana. In its six other games, Indiana gave up an average of 15.6 points per game, which would rank No. 6 in the country, and Ohio State put up 35 points against it.
– Kevin Harrish
Whoever's out really shouldn't determine the outcome for Ohio State
Obviously the massive caveat: As long as it's not Justin Fields.
Northwestern's defense has the talent and gap discipline to make Ohio State one dimensional and take away the running game. So if there are some offensive skill position players who won't be suiting up for the Buckeyes, maybe that limits them a bit.
But comparing the two rosters top to bottom, whatever team Ohio State puts on the field today should be enough to net it a win even if it's not in dominant fashion.
– Zack Carpenter
Questions
Are the Buckeyes who we think they are?
If Ohio State is the Ohio State that should instill fear in opponents, this shouldn't be close. Northwestern’s a solid team with a solid defense. The Buckeyes are a talent-laden team with a generational quarterback. They should win with ease.
Now, to be clear: Even if the Buckeyes eke out a victory, I think they’re in the College Football Playoff. I just don’t think that scenario would be a good sign for how they’d perform against better competition.
– Colin Hass-Hill
What's the secondary going to look like?
Ohio State's only played one game since it got sliced apart by Michael Penix and the Indiana aerial attack, and it was against one of the most anemic passing offenses in the conference.
Now, I'm not going to pretend that Northwestern's the air raid or anything, but I do expect the Wildcats to test that Buckeye secondary more than Michigan State could, and I'm curious to see how it responds and what adjustments have been made.
– Kevin Harrish
Is just a plain ole win enough?
Shaun Wade got some people riled up when he admitted this week that he believes Ohio State needs to crush the Wildcats this week to make a statement and assure itself a spot in the playoff.
He was just being honest, and he might not be wrong.
Buckeye fans are hopeful this weekend will be a repeat of 59-0 against Wisconsin, which is unlikely to happen. But will a 35-14 final or a 42-28 win be enough to keep Ohio State in the top four? Probably. But we'll see.
– Zack Carpenter
Will the fill-ins rise to the occasion again?
Even though Ohio State hasn't yet confirmed exactly who will be unavailable for Saturday's game, it's expected the Buckeyes will be without some key players again. Much like the Michigan State game, that means whoever replaces those players in the lineup will be under the microscope to see if they can step in without a significant drop-off at their positions.
The fill-ins were able to make that happen against the Spartans, as Dawand Jones, Matthew Jones and Max Wray all got the job done in their first career starts on the offensive line while Justin Hilliard and Ronnie Hickman were among those who stepped up in bigger roles on defense.
It's expected that the players they were filling in for – Thayer Munford, Josh Myers, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Tuf Borland and Josh Proctor – will be back today. But now, on a bigger stage in the Big Ten Championship Game, Ohio State could need some other backups to rise to the occasion as the next man up. Much like we did about the Jones’, Wray and Hickman against Michigan State, we could learn something about some more younger/less inexperienced Buckeyes today.
– Dan Hope
Predictions
Ohio State's run defense dominates
After Northwestern ran for a whopping 411 yards against Illinois last week, there's reason to take the Wildcats seriously as a running threat. But I really don't see that success against a weak Illinois run defense translating to playing an Ohio State run defense that ranks sixth nationally with only 95 rushing yards allowed per game.
Northwestern struggled running the ball in most of its regular-season games other than its last game, and I think the Buckeyes will continue their dominant play against the run from most of their regular-season games and hold the Wildcats under 100 rushing yards. And as long as they do that, I don't see Northwestern scoring more than two touchdowns, as the Wildcats just don't have the passing offense to really take advantage of the issues Ohio State has had in that phase of the game.
– Dan Hope
Ohio State covers the spread and meets Clemson in the CFP
Maybe I’m wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time. But I just think Northwestern is a bad matchup for the Buckeyes. They don’t have the aerial weapons needed to pull an upset, and given how well Ohio State has shut down the run, I just have no idea how the Wildcats will score enough points. Defensively, I'm unconvinced that they'll be able to force Fields to make sufficient mistakes.
I’ve got the Buckeyes winning by several touchdowns, Clemson beating Notre Dame, and those two teams meeting in the semifinals for the second year in a row.
– Colin Hass-Hill
Teague's three touchdowns lead the Buckeye offense
Yeah, I know what I just said above about the Wildcats' disciplined run defense and how it can take away Ohio State's run game.
But here I am. Predicting the opposite to happen. The Buckeyes roll with Teague today to a 38-17 win.
– Zack Carpenter
Justin Fields leads the team in rushing
Northwestern's run defense is legitimately one of the best in the country and I do expect them to keep the Ohio State running backs at bay for most of the game, but I think containing the Buckeye backs and Justin Fields might be just a little too much to ask.
Between Northwestern selling out to stop the running backs, the (potential) absence of production at the wide receiver position and Fields showing more comfort running the ball the past few games, I think we might see a heavy dose of Fields on the ground today.
– Kevin Harrish
