We're less than 48 hours away.
Ohio State surprised plenty of folks last week with its 49-28 dismantling of Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers. Justin Fields and Trey Sermon were phenomenal, and the Buckeye defense made enough stops to come away with a semifinal win.
The focus has since switched over to the nation's No. 1 team, and once again most pundits aren't giving Ryan Day much of a chance against Nick Saban's Crimson Tide. Alabama has looked vulnerable early on at times, but the Tide has mostly cruised to a 12-0 season and its fifth championship appearance since the playoff era began in 2014.
The Crimson Tide is 2-2 so far in those championship games with both losses coming against Clemson. Today, we're looking at Monday's matchups and where the Buckeyes may have the edge as they look to hand Alabama its third championship defeat.
Ohio State Passing Game vs. Alabama Pass Defense
Ohio State's passing game was nearly flawless against Clemson but has had hit some bumps during the 2020 season. It's up to 21 scores after Justin Fields delivered six passing touchdowns against the Tigers. Three of those scores came courtesy of the tight ends which was a nice little wrinkle. Fields has completed over 73 percent of his passes for 1,900 yards through seven games. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are two of the top wideouts in the country, and Jameson Williams added a long score in the Sugar Bowl.
Patrick Surtain II is one of the nation's top corners and is likely to be selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, but Alabama is ranked just 79th against the pass. The Irish didn't do a whole lot in the semifinal, but teams like Ole Miss and Florida gave the Tide some major problems through the air. Bama has given up 2,900 yards and 14 passing touchdowns through its 12 games this season.
We know what Wilson and Olave can do, but we'll see if the Buckeyes continue to use the tight ends in Miami. The Alabama linebackers have also struggled in coverage as Dylan Moses just hasn't been the same after last season's injury.
- Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State Rushing Game vs. Alabama Rush Defense
Alabama has the nation's No. 13 rush defense while the Ohio State offense is No. 5. Behind some stellar offensive line play, Trey Sermon has helped to transform the ground game over the last month. When you combine that with what Justin Fields can do (even when banged up), that could be problematic for Saban's defense.
Tide nose tackle Christian Barmore is really good, but again the linebacking unit hasn't been great. We'll see what sort of involvement Master Teague could have on Monday. It appears that true freshman Miyan Williams did not make the trip.
- Edge: Ohio State
Alabama Passing Game vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Much like we saw in the Sugar Bowl, this is probably going to be the game's biggest mismatch. Shaun Wade got torched for 139 yards and two scores against Cornell Powell, so what are we to expect versus Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith and his Heisman finalist signal-caller? I can't imagine Jaylen Waddle is anywhere close to 100 percent, but his presence would only make things even more difficult for Kerry Coombs.
The positives for Ohio State? Sevyn Banks is playing some good football and youngsters like Lathan Ransom have also emerged of late. Josh Proctor has been better than what we saw from Marcus Hooker early on, but he has dropped at least three interceptions over the last few games. The Buckeyes may need those turnovers if there's a chance of taking down the Tide, and pressuring Mac Jones could be the key to producing a few miscues.
- Edge: Alabama
I put together all 21 touchdowns from scrimmage by DeVonta Smith this season.
— James Simpson (@JS_Football) January 3, 2021
He is an absolute joy to watch pic.twitter.com/54zltu0XpY
Alabama Rushing Game vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Ohio State's rush defense is extremely good (No. 2 nationally) and was very much on display against Travis Etienne and the Tigers. However, Alabama's offensive line is one of the best in America and Najee Harris is a very different kind of rusher. The trench play is elite even without Rimington Trophy-winning center Landon Dickerson. Alabama recently won the Joe Moore Award for college football's most outstanding offensive line.
The good news is that Mac Jones doesn't compare to Trevor Lawrence as a rusher. The Heisman finalist has rushed for just three yards and one score in 12 games this season. Harris, on the other hand, has rushed for over six yards per attempt and scored 24 touchdowns. With the likelihood of Ohio State being down a few guys Monday night, the Crimson Tide gets the edge here.
- Edge: Alabama
Ohio State vs. Alabama Coaching
Two of the best coaching staffs in America will be on display, but we have to give the edge to a program that's playing in its sixth CFP and fifth championship game under Nick Saban. Steve Sarkisian has been an ace play-caller and that certainly helped him land his new gig in Austin.
Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson had the Buckeye offense humming against the Tigers, but we've still got all kinds of questions about the defense; especially against a foe like the Crimson Tide. It's also worth remembering that this isn't a dominant Alabama defense like we've seen in the past. We're expecting plenty of scores as the over/under is currently sitting at a whopping 75 points.
- Edge: Alabama
The Buckeyes are an eight-point underdog for Monday night's event as they look to pull off an even bigger stunner than they did last week. If we were to look at which team has the edge at each position, it'd probably look something like this:
| QB | OL | RB | WR | TE | DL | LB | DB | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | √ | PUSH | √ | √ | √ | ||||
| ALABAMA | PUSH | √ | √ | √ | √ |
Mac Jones has had a better season than Justin Fields, but there's no arguing who's the more talented quarterback. For the Buckeyes to win, we'll need the Clemson version rather than what we saw against Northwestern. Alabama was awarded for having the nation's top offensive line, but I think that's a push with Landon Dickerson missing from the middle.
Trey Sermon has been amazing of late, but Najee Harris gives the Tide the edge in the backfield. We'll see if Jaylen Waddle is able to go as he and DeVonta Smith are the nation's top pass-catching duo. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson aren't far behind, however, and if Waddle can't go then that one's either a push or perhaps even a slight edge to the Buckeyes.
The Alabama defensive line isn't as strong as it's been in previous years. Ohio State has the better unit, but we're well aware of the rumors that could impact who's all available for Larry Johnson. The Tide linebackers haven't been great this year, and that's especially true in pass coverage. Neither secondary has performed too well, but Patrick Surtain II and Co. get the edge there. Alabama kicker Will Reichard has connected on all 77 of his extra-point attempts and is 13 of 13 on field goals.
Ryan Day is faced with a tall task against an experienced coach, star quarterback, Heisman Trophy winner, and one of the nation's most explosive offenses. The Buckeyes will need to be nearly perfect to take down the Tide. A performance similar to what we saw in New Orleans may be enough to do the trick.
