It's almost here.
Just one more day before Ohio State squares off against Alabama with the national title on the line.
You know the storylines, you know what's at stake.
Let's turn it over to 11W's own Kyle Jones, Johnny Ginter and David Regimbal to preview tomorrow night's clash of college football titans.
Ohio State’s offensive line and Trey Sermon have been unstoppable in the running game. The team has rushed for over 300 yards in three of the last four games and obviously Sermon has been on fire. What kind of night do you see for the Buckeyes and Trey Sermon against Alabama’s front? Can the run game be a difference maker in the outcome?
Kyle: With the youth on Alabama’s defensive line, I expect the Buckeyes to still maintain a strong push in the run game. It’s probably too much to expect Sermon to keep gaining nine yards per carry especially against a pair of solid linebackers like Dylan Moses and Christian Harris, but the OSU run game should continue to be a factor on Monday night.
Johnny: Trey Sermon is feeling it, and if there's anyone on the planet who still thinks his production might be a fluke that could fizzle out into nothingness, I'll be the one to reassure them that nope: he's Officially Good. But I guess the question is asking can he be Officially Good against Alabama in addition to the likes of Clemson and Northwestern, and to that I'd answer a big ol' "sure, mostly." What I mean by that is I expect him to be effective but not game-breaking. Ohio State can't win without him being effective (and I expect him to be), but I also don't see Sermon doing anything to win the game by himself. That'll likely be a job for Justin Fields.
David: I feel like that’s entirely dependent on whether Fields is healthy enough to complement Sermon and Teague. The zone-read opens up so many opportunities for this running game. If Fields is limited I still think this line and ground attack can move the ball, but I wouldn’t expect another 300-yard effort.
Alabama’s biggest edge might be in its passing attack against Ohio State’s secondary. Obviously, some of that could be mitigated by the Buckeyes pass rush but can the defense slow down Devonta Smith at all? What’s your level of confidence the defense can slow down the Crimson Tide passing attack enough to potentially allow the OSU offense to outscore Bama’s?
David: I’m... skeptical. Shaun Wade has consistently been picked on this year, and that’s even with the interior of the defensive line being so consistently disruptive. I never thought I’d be be saying this, but I’d rather Sevyn Banks cover Smith.
But then... who’s guarding Waddle if he’s a full go? BRB gonna go do some alcohol.
Kyle: Unfortunately, those two things are very intertwined in Alabama’s RPO-heavy offense. When a defense sells out to stop one aspect of the Tide offense, it creates opportunities for the other. That said, I expect the Buckeyes to try to make the Tide left-handed by boxing the run game while playing a soft coverage over the top, forcing Mac Jones to complete multiple passes in a row to find the end zone, rather than breaking any explosive plays.
Johnny: Not super high. Devonta Smith is head and shoulders above 99% of the wideouts this secondary has faced so far this season, and it should be noted that a lot of those previous wideouts still torched this secondary. If Jaylen Waddle can play things get even more difficult, to the point that creative blitz packages and strong interior line play likely won't be enough to slow the Tide down. The defensive ends have to play the games of their lives to try and get pressure on Mac Jones on obvious passing downs, because if the football gets within 20 yards of Smith, he's catching it.
Big games like this typically see the stars dictate the outcome but who is a guy that maybe isn’t top of mind for most Buckeye fans that you think might be able to make a huge impact and why?
Johnny: The linebackers and safeties have to generate a turnover or two to change the tenor of the Alabama passing game. Guys like Josh Proctor or Pete Werner will need to play the games of their lives in coverage when Mac Jones checks down against coverage meant to take away Devonta Smith.
David: I’m thinking back at the last matchup with Alabama and how big Steve Miller’s pick-six was. I think it’s going to take a Herculean effort by the d-line to win this game, so my answer is — any of the rotational defensive ends not named Jonathon Cooper.
Kyle: If Ohio State slows down the Alabama run game it will not only be due to the defensive line but the inside linebacking duo of Tuf Borland and Pete Werner. I can see either (or both) of those two reaching double-digit tackle totals, keeping Najee Harris contained.
Speaking of stars, Justin Fields was nearly perfect against Clemson with 385 yards and six touchdowns through the air with another 42 yards on the ground despite taking a helmet to the kidney/ribs in the first half. You confident the hit won’t be a factor on Monday night? Take a stab at Justin’s stat line. And will the tight ends be as big a factor in this one?
Kyle: I don’t expect three touchdowns out of the tight ends, no. However, I can see Olave and Wilson hauling in some deep balls and Fields still racking up over 300 passing yards in a shootout. The big question to me remains just how much the QB can contribute to the OSU running game with his rib injury, should the Tide find a way to clamp down on Trey Sermon.
David: I think the strategy going into this game will be for Fields to attack a secondary that looked not great against Ole Miss and Florida this year. I’d envision Fields eclipsing 300 yards and at least a few touchdowns, because if he doesn’t, I’m not sure Ohio State will be able to keep up with this Alabama offense.
Also, I’ll believe in the Ohio State tight ends when they make more than just an annual appearance.
Johnny: It's going to be tough for him, physically and mentally. There is no doubt in my mind that Alabama will throw the kitchen sink at him defensively in coverage, but they'll also try and punish him physically for trying to pick up yards with his feet. Because of that, yes, I do think that the tight ends could end up being a big part of the offensive gameplan as a safety blanket for Fields. What's funny to me is that ultimately they might be the hardest part of the Ohio State offense for Alabama to deal with, in part because both Luke Farrell and Jeremy Ruckert are way better than they're given credit for.
Bama is still listed as a 7.5-8-point favorite over Ohio State depending on the book. Can Ohio State pull another upset and capture the national title? Give us your final score and the key factor behind your prediction.
Johnny: I think Ohio State can pull the upset. It would require a monumental effort from every unit on offense and defense, a perfect gameplan from Ryan Day, and probably a couple of timely turnovers in addition to Alabama making some boneheaded moves themselves. Also a planetary alignment of Mars and Neptune would help, as would three of the five Tide starting offensive linemen being Geminis. I would love for it to happen, but I don't see it. I haven't even gotten to running back Najee Harris (possibly the best in the country and Doak Walker award winner) in any of my responses.
There's just too much for Ohio State's defense to overcome, and while the offense will put up points, their chances will be limited by a Crimson Tide offense that will eat up chunks of yards and clock time. 38-31 Alabama.
Kyle: Both defenses are imperfect, allowing plenty of big plays, meaning this game will be a track meet. But even with the injury, I believe in Justin Fields more than Mac Jones. This game may well come down to who has the ball last, but I’m thinking OSU wins a classic, 42-38 on a last minute drive
David: I think Ohio State has the talent and scheme to do it, I’m just not certain who will and won’t be available because of COVID.
The Sugar Bowl was the first time I predicted an Ohio State loss in our staff predictions and that went pretty well, so I’m saying Ohio State 34, Alabama 38.
