The 2022 season opener is just one sunrise away.
And it's not your ordinary season kickoff as No. 5 Notre Dame comes to town for a primetime banger.
Just like you, this week's participants are chomping at the bit so let me get out of the way.
Please welcome my esteemed colleagues Dan Hope, Kyle Jones and Josh Poloha to this week's 11W Roundtable.
Entering the season, all eyes center on the Ohio State defense. How will the Buckeyes fare in game one, debuting a new scheme, against a Notre Dame offense breaking in a new quarterback and dealing with a fair amount of injury concerns? Of the defensive line, linebackers and secondary, which unit are you expecting to show the most improvement from last season?
Dan: I expect Ohio State’s defense to have some growing pains in its first game in a new scheme, but I also expect Tyler Buchner to make some mistakes in his first start against a defense that will look to confuse him and will be tough to prepare for given its newness. If the Buckeyes can limit the Fighting Irish to 24 points or fewer, I think that would be a good start.
While the defensive line has been a bit underwhelming for the past couple of seasons, I'm expecting the Rushmen to reemerge as the strength of the Buckeyes' defense this year. The unit has no shortage of potential stars, from sophomores like J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Tyleik Williams to veterans like Zach Harrison and Taron Vincent who will be looking to fully live up to their five-star potential this year, and the buzz from inside the program all offseason has been that the defensive line has been consistently disruptive in practice.
Kyle: As I (and the players and coaches) have now said for months, this new scheme is a ‘safety-driven defense.’ Those safeties will have their hands full with an All-American tight end to cover in Michael Mayer, but I expect to see them constantly making plays in both the run and pass games on Saturday night. If the names Proctor, Hickman, and McCalister are constantly bellowing through the Ohio Stadium P.A. system, then I have a good feeling that Buckeye fans will be driving home in a very good mood.
Josh: I think (and hope) the defense will do quite well. Granted, they are going up against a top-5 team in college football in their first game in a new system, so it certainly won't be perfect, but I think Ohio State fans will be surprised at how well some of the Silver Bullets play after a disappointing season last year. There's plenty of talent on that side of the ball, I just feel like they weren't put in the best situation(s) over the last couple of years. Jim Knowles has never had the talent he will have leading the Buckeye defense, so he will certainly take advantage of the abundance of talented players he has all over the field and put his players in the best position(s) to succeed. My gut tells me that Ohio State fans will love the style of the new-look defense.
Picking a specific position group to show the most improvement is tough, honestly. The defensive line should finally get back to their old ways and dominate the line of scrimmage, the linebackers should certainly be much better than they have over the last few years, and the defensive backfield has so many playmakers. I'm really looking forward to how Knowles goes about the different formations and rotations he uses.
While everyone’s bullish on Ohio State’s offense, particularly the passing game, how are you feeling about the revamped offensive line’s ability to run block? Will the Buckeyes have success running the ball between the tackles Saturday? What kind of carries split do you see for TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams? Dallan Hayden going to get a few touches?
Josh: The recent comments from Kevin Wilson about the short-yardage run game still showing some inconsistencies are a bit concerning, but I feel like that is more coach-speak than anything. I certainly don't know this as a fact, but Wilson could just be keeping his offensive line in check and wanting them to continue to improve leading into the season opener (and beyond). As of right now, I'm not too worried about Justin Frye's group in year one under the new offensive line coach, but that could certainly change, as well.
Ohio State will have a lethal passing attack, we all know that, but being able to move the ball on the ground will be one of the biggest things to keep track of, not just in the top-five showdown Saturday night, but all season. The more (and easier) the Buckeyes are able to move the ball on the ground, the easier it will be for C.J. Stroud and company to dominate through the air, and vice versa. As long as the offensive line improves just a little bit (especially in the short-yardage game), TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams are talented enough to do the rest. They're the best running-back duo in the country for a reason. Expect it to be a 70-30 split between the two, with Williams likely getting more short-yardage and goal-line situations.
Dan: There’s really no reason why Ohio State’s offensive line shouldn’t have one of the best rushing offenses in the country. Their offensive line is loaded with talent, and Henderson and Williams might be the best one-two punch of running backs in college football. Notre Dame’s defensive line will be one of the best the Buckeyes face all season, however, so I don’t expect dominance between the tackles right away. Against a front line like the Fighting Irish’s, winning a majority of the battles in what I expect to be a war in the trenches would be a great sign.
I expect Henderson to get roughly 75% of the workload and Williams to get approximately 25% of the running back snaps against Notre Dame. I am interested to see if the Buckeyes make a concerted effort to put Williams in the game in short-yardage/goal-line situations, but I still expect Henderson to be on the field far more often than not. I'd be surprised if Hayden gets any carries against the Fighting Irish – he should get plenty of playing time in the next two games against Arkansas State and Toledo.
Kyle: I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Buckeye run game struggle at times on Saturday. Marcus Freeman likes to man up his secondary in the passing game and load up the box behind a variety of defensive fronts, and the ND defensive line is one of the team’s strengths. That said, I wouldn’t be too worried if the OSU run game fails to get going, as I have all the faith in the world that Stroud and those talented receivers will have a fun little evening against man-coverage and make any run struggles moot.
Who’s an under-the-radar guy, maybe it’s a first-year starter, you’re expecting to have a notice-me performance against Notre Dame?
Kyle: I don’t know how ‘under-the-radar’ he actually is, but I am expecting big things from Tanner McCalister in his debut for the Buckeyes. As I wrote yesterday in my Film Study, he will be playing his second consecutive game against the Irish and he shook off some early struggles to make some big plays in that first contest, including while manned up on Mayer down the stretch. The Irish will need a big game out of their star TE, but McCalister has proven he’s up to the challenge.
Josh: Man, this one's tough. Was going to go with Marvin Harrison Jr. but I feel like he's not necessarily an under-the-radar player anymore after a three-touchdown performance in the Rose Bowl. So, with that, I'll go with another wide receiver: Whoever gets the starting nod between Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming. Fighting for that WR3 spot all offseason, it seems as though both guys impressed the coaching staff on a weekly basis. With so much attention put on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Harrison (and deservedly so), the third wideout in Ohio State's offense could have plenty of opportunities and targets from C.J. Stroud to make a name for themselves in the season opener. It's worth mentioning that both Egbuka and Fleming were the No. 1-ranked wide receivers in their respective recruiting class. So, once again, it's an embarrassment of riches for Ohio State to have an "under-the-radar" player be the top-rated guy at his position prior to coming to Columbus.
Dan: Kourt Williams probably isn’t going to be a starter and Jim Knowles has said he doesn’t want to rotate a lot at safety, but this is the kind of game where I think we might end up seeing a healthy dose of Williams nonetheless. Keeping Michael Mayer in check will be a big priority for Ohio State's defense, and Williams' combination of linebacker size with safety athleticism makes him a logical candidate to take on that matchup in at least some packages. Putting him on the field as a bigger body at safety could also help the Buckeyes stop the run against an opponent who will likely look to establish the run early and often to take pressure off their first-time starting quarterback. If the Buckeyes do turn to Williams regularly against the Fighting Irish, it will be a huge opportunity for him to show what he can do in a matchup where they'll need him to make plays.
Former Buckeye linebacker and current Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman hasn’t exactly provided the smoothest talk-offs when discussing Ohio State the last many months. How will he be received by the OSU faithful? If Day has a chance to run it up, will he? And if Day does, will it have anything to do with Freeman or more to do with national perception, rankings etc.?
Dan: Even if Marcus Freeman had said nothing but great things about his alma mater all offseason, Notre Dame still would have been greeted with plenty of boos when it takes the field on Saturday night, and the Buckeyes still would have had a chip on their shoulder entering this game after falling short of their major goals last season. While Freeman's return to Ohio State is a fun pregame storyline, I don't think it will have any impact on the game itself. I don't personally see this game getting into run-up-the-score territory, but Ohio State is going to want to make a statement in this game. But that's more about turning the page from last season and starting this season with a bang than it is about revenge against Freeman.
Kyle: I think there is too much respect between these two staffs for either to make it ugly. Besides, despite how much OSU fans may dislike Notre Dame for its national perception, the reality is it’s a good thing for the Irish to look like a competitive program. Woody Hayes always said he was the best recruiter the Irish ever had, as he instantly pushed recruits to South Bend instead of Ann Arbor once he knew they wouldn’t be a Buckeye. Embarrassing them on national TV might make a conference foe look more appealing to a 16-year old, and I’d imagine Day and his staff are well aware of this fact.
Josh: I am (or at least was) a big fan of Marcus Freeman. Then, he said some questionable things throughout the offseason to sort of hate on Ohio State. I get it, he's the head coach of Notre Dame so he will continue to talk down about the school he once played for, but sometimes it's important to just nothing say nothing at all, especially about a school and program that was once so important to you. I won't (and haven't) taken offense to anything, Freeman's smack talk is just interesting, is all. He will likely be cheered by many and booed by some when he is introduced but once the whistle blows to begin the season opener, he will be an enemy.
If the score gets out of hand, Day will likely let up a little bit, just like he always does, but potentially blowing out a top-five opponent to start the season would be important as well, both as a way to prove how good Ohio State is (and could be) this season and in the ranking as the season goes on. If the Buckeyes do win big, though, it will have everything to do with national perception and nothing to do with Notre Dame's new head coach.
Ohio State enters the contest as a heavy 17.5-point favorite. Do the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP.
Josh: Yes. Bettors seem to agree, considering Ohio State opened as a 14.5-point favorite and the spread has increased to -17.5. Score prediction: 45-20. My MVP: C.J. Stroud. It's his time to shine and prove that he is not only the best quarterback in the country, but deserves to be atop the Heisman rankings after the first game of the season as well.
Dan: I think Ohio State's offensive firepower will be too much for Notre Dame in the end, but I think the Fighting Irish will challenge the Buckeyes enough on both sides of the ball to keep it competitive into the fourth quarter. So I've got the Buckeyes winning the game by multiple scores but falling short of a cover. Jaxon Smith-Njigba picks up where he left off last season and has a big first game to lead the Buckeyes to a 38-24 victory.
Kyle: OSU wins 42-21 and while Stroud has a gaudy stat line, the lead storyline on Sunday morning will be Julian Fleming, as the attention given to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr allows the former blue chip recruit to finally break out in a Buckeye uniform.
