Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Best Bets for Ohio State vs. Indiana

The dawn of the Ohio State football betting season has finally arrived in Columbus. If you caught last week's preseason preview for bettors, then you probably already have a sense of the objectives in this series.

Welcome to Easy Bucks, hosted by yours truly: Easy Eis!

I spent a great deal of last fall capping college football, the NFL and the UFC in a journalistic capacity for a handful of regional media outlets across the Eastern and Midwest time zones. Not since Dan Hope left the beat in Pickens and Anderson counties has any writer around here had such accurate weekly reads on the Clemson Tigers!

But whether it was the Tigers, the Gamecocks, the Demon Deacons, the Orange, or even our beloved Buckeyes — the eyes on this Eis stayed on the prize to the tune of an 8-4-1 record across college football spread and over/under picks last season.

Now, I return to the roundtable hold of Eleven Warriors to share my experience, insight, and skills with fellow knights of Columbus in our mutual quest for prosperity. But I am also going to give you the same disclaimer that I did last week, and will continue to do so prior to each game moving forward:

This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, play at YOUR OWN RISK, and LEAVE the 11W staff IN PEACE if ANY of this FOOTBALL GAME CONJECTURE proves incorrect.

Did that interspersed caps lock shake your confidence? Then you just might be cut out for this. Play responsibly, and let's consider this week's sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Indiana.

Odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

Best Bet — Over 59 Points (-114)

Critics who perused my references linked in the previous section may have taken notice that I informed folks to pick the over on Ohio State's matchup with Indiana last year. A season ago, that point total stood at 57.5 — just below the current line, which the two teams went on to clear by nearly a pair of touchdowns.

After entering the fourth quarter nervously needing another 8.5 points between the sides, Xavier Johnson graciously erased most of that concern inside of a minute.

Xavier Johnson might've just made the entire defense miss a tackle

He breaks off for a 71-yard TD for @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/zkpnYtu6En

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 12, 2022

One Hoosier garbage time touchdown a few minutes later, that bet turned into easy money.

How, Easy? How easy? Because last season became the sixth time in a row that an over has cashed in this matchup going back to 2017! The Buckeyes did not score less than 42 points in any of those meetings, and events played out no differently in 2022.

When the Buckeyes last visited Bloomington in 2021 and left with a 54-7 victory, TreVeyon Henderson required all of 10 touches to record three touchdowns while picking up a cool 95 total yards along the way. Henderson has previously thrived against Indiana in their own backyard, and after missing the Hoosiers' visit to Columbus last season, he will certainly strive for a strong start to his third season in a setting familiar to his success.

Kyle McCord could not have asked for a better opponent to make his first start against, either. Indiana finished last season with the eighth-highest expected-points-added (EPA) per game metric against passing plays at the FBS level, as well as the fourth-worst success rate while defending opponents' aerial attacks at the top echelon of college football.

As for the Silver Bullets, while there's no shortage of optimism for even more improvement within Jim Knowles' scheme in his second year with the Buckeyes, dramatic change rarely takes shape overnight. The Hoosiers achieved a higher point total than beyond half of the opponents Ohio State had faced at the time a year ago, and Knowles admitted himself in the offseason that he will need to gamble less going forward when scripting the aggression of his defense.

Easier said than done. However, while Indiana hardly figures to make this a shootout, do not find yourself alarmed with any hiccups that may occur as nothing more than a byproduct of a road opener — even if they result in points for the Hoosiers.

Spreads are difficult to read on opening weekend for oddsmakers and the public alike. The less risky proposition will be to align an investment with the circumstances and trends that continue to unfold between this matchup's dynamic across several seasons.

Best Player Prop — Cade Stover, Anytime TD (+140)

Looking for value without any juice attached? Player props carry considerable risk, but a savvy bettor sharp to the roles of a given team can get a great return on them depending on the matchup available. Of course, one bad bite from the injury bug can ruin an entire bet, which I tragically learned while placing my first-ever wager on Trey Sermon's tally of rushing yards in OSU's National Championship appearance.

At the outset of the season, props essentially serve as fliers. So, if looking to take a flier in Bloomington, consider the player who scored 40% of all his touchdowns against Indiana a year ago.

Cade Stover caught only three passes when facing the Hoosiers last time, but turned a pair of them into scores that represented a large share of the five he finished with for the entire season. He certainly wants to make the most out of every opportunity he receives, which may partially explain why the team overwhelmingly voted to make him a captain heading into 2023.

Amazing job stretching for the TD by Cade Stover. pic.twitter.com/0JXvXvGIkU

— Bill Rabinowitz (@brdispatch) November 15, 2022

Can Stover put on an encore against a team that he trucked over last year while serving in one of the team's most respected roles? One waltz into paydirt off of a drag or delay route caught in the red zone could be all it takes for this pick to land. Against a poor passing defense the team captain has already faced twice in his career with as many touchdowns to speak for his experience, the plus money price tag next to Stover's name presents solid value for opening weekend.

#FadeMcMurphy — Texas Tech, -14 (-110) vs. Wyoming

Maybe you know him as the mortal enemy of a disgraced former wide receivers coach, or perhaps you remember his mustache as part of the talent for a sports television network that broadcasts from screens attached to gas station pumps.

Either way, Ohio State fans know the name Brett McMurphy. They say success will be the best revenge, so it seems about time the Buckeye faithful got theirs.

McMurphy, to his credit, has a recorded sample size of over 400 bets on his Action Network profile page. He not only picks more often right than wrong – more importantly, he sits profitable! But he also took the spread on Florida at +7.5 last Thursday night despite making the public aware of this bewildering statistic!

Florida's game at Utah tonight is Gators' 1st non-conference road game outside of Florida in 11,667 days since losing at Syracuse 38-21 on Sept. 21, 1991. Kirby Dar Dar - a Tampa, Fla., product - returned opening kickoff for TD for Orange

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 31, 2023

Stoop kid's afraid to leave his stoop! Utah wins 24-11! #FadeMcMurphy!

It will be difficult to find recurring value week-over-week while fading an informed member of the media, but I will do what I must for the sake of the bit.

McMurphy has eight spreads and one point total on his ledger heading into the Week 1 Saturday slate. Relative to what I remember about these teams from last season, his choice of Wyoming +14 at pick 'em odds stands out to me the most.

The Red Raiders bring back 14 total starters from a season ago. They concluded last season averaging the second-most yards per game in the Big 12 while also achieving the conference's fourth-highest scoring average. Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley built an offensive identity around volume of passing plays (3rd most per game in FBS last season) combined with consistency and efficiency on the ground that looks to carry over into 2023.

TOUCHDOWN Red Raiders @nehavinez fights for the end zone and gives @TexasTechFB the lead early in the 2nd Q pic.twitter.com/lZFrjyEzIr

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 10, 2022

Conversely, Wyoming limped into the barn at the end of last season. They defeated Colorado State by only a single point in what would have been just CSU's fourth win last year, then followed that result with losses to Boise State and Fresno State by a combined score of 50-17. The Cowboys also lost their most recent opener to Illinois by an alarming score of 38-6.

The Wyoming offense finished 2022 with the fifth-worst EPA per passing play among FBS teams. If the game script gets away from them early on as it has previously when faced with levels up in competition, and the Red Raiders' offense controls the game on the ground from then-on, it will be difficult for the Cowboys to put a dent into any deficit as they awaken from offseason slumber.

Good luck, go Buck$.