Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

Can the Buckeyes earn their first win at Camp Randall since the 2016 season? Or will Jump Around send the OSU faithful back to Columbus spooked?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Wisconsin.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -14.5

Three covers in a row for the Buckeyes! That's the first time Ohio State has pulled off such a feat since wins over Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana during the 2021 season. Can OSU make it four straight this week?

Lately, Wisconsin has had a tough time keeping final tallies within the projected margin of victory when facing Ohio State. The Buckeyes own a 7-3 record against the spread when facing the Badgers since the 2010 season, which includes a perfect 3-0 mark in Big Ten Championship games.

But given three of those seven wins happened as neutral site games in December, does that trend of success really illustrate enough confidence for bettors as the Buckeyes head into Camp Randall Stadium? For a night game? On Halloween weekend?

Perhaps examining OSU's success at Wisconsin in the new millennium would be a more appropriate comparison.

There are a few ways to consider the table above. On one hand, only one of the last seven games Ohio State has played at Wisconsin kicked off with a double-digit spread attached. But that was also the most recent contest during the 2016 season, and such a result combined with two outright losses to the Badgers across the last five visits to Madison suggest Jump Around's impact remains anything but a spooky legend.

However, Wisconsin just lost regular starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai for the remainder of the season due to a hand injury. New field general Braedyn Locke could not have asked for a more daunting defense to make his first start at home against in the form of Jim Knowles' Silver Bullets. The Badger defense figures to have a much more difficult time dealing with the Buckeye playmakers than vice versa. Asking Luke Fickell to keep this game within two touchdowns seems a tall order.

The Total: 45.5

Rejoice in the season of unders! Last week's Easy Bucks highlighted the trend of shallow scoring among OSU/PSU games that close with over/under forecasts below 50 points. That trend continued in a 20-12 win that moved Ohio State's overall record on point totals to 1-6 this season. Western Kentucky remains the only school that has helped the Buckeyes achieve an over in the 2023 campaign. 

Now, after seeing an over/under projection close in the 40s for the first time in four seasons, Ohio State suddenly finds itself staring at an identical projection this week ahead of the team's first visit to Camp Randall in seven years. Coincidentally, that game had a point total at close most comparable to expectations this week relative to the last 10 games against the Badgers.

Once again, a more specific look at recent results probably offers more insight in this case. Only three of the last 10 meetings featured over/under projections that closed in the 40s, including none of the Big Ten Championship games, all of which saw overs hit — even the infamous 59-0 shutout during Ohio State's bid for the first College Football Playoff. 

Examining the seven same road results considered for the spread in the previous section, a more interesting patten of lines and results emerges. 

Only two of the last seven meetings at Wisconsin have seen the point total's line creep out to 50 points or higher, while the under managed to hit five times in these cases. The most recent result in 2016 achieved an over, but given the new Badger quarterback and Knowles holding all opponents to 17 points or less so far this season, there are much greater recency factors in play concerning this matchup.

Then again, if Ohio State will actually have more of its regular playmaking personnel available this week that what's been on the field recently, the offense might have a bit of unforeseen success in store for the NBC audience. For that reason, it may be especially worth waiting on the Buckeye injury report this week before proceeding with an investment in a point total.

Prop Watch: Emeka Egbuka Anytime TD

Prop Watch remains up for the season, but moves to 2-3-2 record-wise after narrowly missing on either Ohio State or Penn State to score a defensive/special teams touchdown last week. Kyle McCord did his best to provide the Nittany Lions with a scoop and score, but a holding penalty from the PSU secondary reversed what would have otherwise been a lovely cash on a hedge against a mistake from the Buckeyes.

Let's try to get back to .500 this week — probably best done by not shooting for price tags in the +200 range, for a change. Instead, consider something more simple and widely available on the market. 

Remember that recommendation to read the injury reports? Those usually end up having a significant impact on the betting market. Last week's abundance of surprise scratches prior to the Penn State game have shaped the offerings in such a way that Ohio State has no rushing props available for the second straight week.

Would you believe Emeka Egbuka suddenly has the same odds to score an anytime touchdown as Cade Stover, a tight end that has scored in only five of 19 games since the start of the 2022 season?

By contrast, Egbuka has scored in 12 of his 18 appearances over that same stretch. He recorded a touchdown in half of Ohio State's road games last season, and while he did not find the end zone against Notre Dame, he still finished with over 100 total yards as the most productive offensive Buckeye in the team's biggest road test so far.

After Marvin Harrison Jr. finished within 30 yards of out-producing Penn State's entire passing offense last week, the attention from all corners off college football appears appropriately squared on the Buckeye superstar at receiver. However, fans regularly watching Ohio State football back to last season understand that even in the absence of Egbuka last week, Maserati Marv's rise to success has hardly happened by lonesome in the receiving corps.

Disrespect is a strong word, but one would find it difficult to argue that Egbuka's rep beyond Columbus hardly carries the same resonance that Marv's does given his operation in the son of an NFL Hall-of-Famer's shadow. That sort of "disrespect" appears to illustrate itself in the betting market this week. If Egbuka is available for Ohio State. he's proven to be one of the team's optimal scoring threats going back to the start of last season. For however valuable Stover has been of late or during that same stretch, his utility as a scorer for the Buckeyes simply has not measured up to that of Egbuka.

Ohio State finds itself blessed with not merely a WR2 to complement Route Man Marv, but a pair of WR1s. Take advantage of Egbuka's "out of sight, out of mind" status heading into B1G Saturday Night before the truth from Ryan Day dumps a bucket of cold water on the prop market tomorrow — whether or not #2 finds himself ready to return.

Good luck, and go Buck$.