Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Michigan

Will Ohio State avenge its previous two losses to Michigan with a narrative-setting win over a Wolverine program enveloped in scandal? Or will Connor Stalions smile and shed a tear somewhere knowing his sacrifice was not in vain?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Michigan.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State +3.5

Barring a bizarre line flip, Saturday will serve as the first time during the 2023 season that the Buckeyes have entered a game as underdogs. No surprise, given Ohio State enters with a 7-3-1 record against the spread, but that also means the betting public has a rare opportunity to take advantage of an OSU money line with plus odds attached.

Homerism aside, does that grade out as a good investment? Or should fans hedge against a narrow loss by taking the current spread, which would still cash for Buckeye fans at a pick 'em price tag even if Michigan wins by a field goal at home?

Recent history preaches caution in pursuing either path. Although Ohio State won the last installment of The Game that featured the Buckeyes as underdogs (2018), this weekend figures to be only the second time in the last decade OSU has taken part in the rivalry under such circumstances.

A 4-6 ATS record hardly inspires confidence here. Then again, the power dynamic of The Game has obviously shifted in recent seasons to the point where OSU's previous decade of dominance may not provide much relevancy in a current betting context.

Fortunately, a rivalry played with as much seasonal regularity as this one — coronavirus notwithstanding — offers a wealth of matchups from the past to consider against the current parameters of the upcoming contest. What happens when we adjust for results across the last ~25 years that took place solely in Ann Arbor with the Buckeyes lined as underdogs?

That 1-4 record against the Wolverines in their backyard should provide some pause to bettors getting wide-eyed over the plus money price tag on OSU. Fortunately, the 3-2 ATS record seems more encouraging, particularly given all three of those wins featured spreads greater than double the projected margin of victory Ohio State faces on Saturday.

Proceed with caution. If you are not prepared for a reality in which the Buckeyes fail to win, do not let TTUN tilt you further.

The Total: 46.5

After last week, the Autumn of Unders has now become the hottest season attached to my name since The Summer of George!

After last week's point total market returned to the 50s range following a rare dip into 40s territory given the Ohio State program's recurring offensive success in recent years, the books seem to have corrected themselves sharply. Betting lines for The Game have been available since May, but when the market for a point total finally became available earlier this season, the line opened at 57.5 points between the teams.

Fast forward to rivalry week, and that total has witnessed a sharp drop of 11 points — truly remarkable line movement for such a high-profile American football game with public eyes glued to the build-up all across the country and beyond.

The books likely examined the recent history between these teams relative to over/unders before setting the original line. A clear trend emerges when sampling the last approximate decade of The Game's performances.

Nine straight overs following Urban Meyer's first game against Michigan in the 2012 season. Last season's over appeared in jeopardy entering the fourth quarter, given the 24-20 score and Ohio State going scoreless in the third quarter. The levee finally breaking for Michigan in the last 15 minutes quickly changed fortunes for bettors on both sides of the line.

However, under optimists should not necessarily find themselves discouraged just yet. Only three of the previous 10 results between the Buckeyes and Wolverines have featured over/under projections that closed in the 40s range expected for The Game on Saturday.

What happens when we adjust results for the last quarter century that featured Ohio State on the road and comparable point total expectations to this weekend?

Alas, no joy for the sickos swept off their feet by shallow scoring. Since the 1995 season, seven overs have hit in The Game when played in Ann Arbor against only three unders. Michigan managed merely a field goal in one of those meetings, and OSU contributed towards two different streaks of three straight overs across that stretch. The Buckeyes own a 6-4 straight-up record under such circumstances, but are 5-1 over the previous six such chapters of The Game.

The enormous line movement towards the under in contrast to such strong historical trends surrounding the over creates a difficult decision for point total bettors this week. Riding or dying on the OSU money line may prove less stressful.

Prop Watch: Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime TD, -114

Prop Watch got cute last week and paid for it. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Heisman hopes likely ended last week after the star Buckeye receiver hardly needed any involvement on his team's way to a 37-3 win at home. Route Man Marv did catch a touchdown for a seventh straight game, but that hardly meant much to anyone that invested in the over on his receiving yards line. As discussed last week, I should have gone with my gut and taken the under on Chip Trayanum's rushing yards, because that market no longer finds itself available.

The prop picks from this series for the 2023 regular season will close with profitability thanks to big calls against Notre Dame and Maryland, but the overall record currently sits at 4-5-2. A win this weekend secures a .500 finish, so let's try to keep it simple.

Thankfully, the most competitive game on paper that Ohio State or Michigan have entered so far this season has returned high-profile player props into a more palatable range for bettors. Of course, the more valuable price tags are a result of each offense standing across from the greatest defensive challenge either of them has encountered to this point.

In light of the fact that Harrison Jr. currently finds himself on a seven-game scoring streak, it seems surprising that he currently sits at pick 'em odds to get in the end zone for an eighth straight time to end the regular season.

Not only did Maserati Marv score one of only two touchdowns for the Buckeyes against the Wolverines a season ago, but since Week 3 this season, Harrison Jr.'s odds on an anytime touchdown have averaged out to -261 (72.3% probability). If his current price tag holds to close, those odds at -114 will carry 147 more points of value than what Harrison Jr. has had attached to his name since prior to facing Western Kentucky.

Route Man Marv has had two other dates with opponents over that stretch in which his anytime touchdown prop closed within a similar pick 'em range: Notre Dame and Penn State. Harrison Jr. suffered an injury during the game in South Bend that limited his playing time and ultimately kept him out of the end zone, but conversely had arguably his best game of the season facing the Nittany Lions.

This season, Harrison Jr. has a touchdown in all games in which he recorded at least four receptions. He has scored 13 touchdowns across 62 total catches, averaging one score for roughly every 4.77 passes brought in and secured. Harrison Jr. caught 11 of those 62 balls against Penn State, which means nearly a fifth of his production during his Heisman campaign (~18%) came against one of the two most difficult opponents — and defenses — Ohio State has faced thus far.

Saturday (likely) represents the final opportunity to make a regular season investment in one of the greatest wide receivers across both the recent and storied histories of this program. Ride with the success and do not blink if you wish to bear witness.

Good luck, and go Buck$.