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The Game may never be this big again.
Michigan
wolverines
If Ohio State and Michigan were to meet in the final week of the regular season with 11-0 records next year, they’d already be sure bets to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. They’d perhaps already be assured of meeting each other again in the divisionless Big Ten Championship Game – or there would at least be a chance of that happening.
This year, however, everything is on the line for the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. The victor of The Game will win the Big Ten East title, securing its berth in the Big Ten Championship Game and likely locking itself into the four-team CFP, while the loser will watch from home next week and likely finish its season in a non-playoff bowl.
It’s only the fifth time since the Buckeyes and Wolverines began playing each other at the end of the regular season every year that both teams have entered The Game with undefeated records, as well as just the fifth time that Ohio State and Michigan will meet each other as two of the top three teams in the AP poll, in which the Buckeyes are ranked second and the Wolverines are ranked third.
Ohio State’s biggest star says he wouldn’t want it any other way.
“I think it's exactly how I dreamed of it,” Marvin Harrison Jr. said. “Both teams undefeated. I don't even know what the rankings are, but this is exactly how I wanted it to be.”
The Buckeyes’ conference and national championship hopes will be at stake on Saturday at noon in Ann Arbor. Add in that the Buckeyes haven’t beaten Michigan in four years, along with the revelation that the Wolverines’ wins over Ohio State in the past two seasons may have been aided by forbidden sign-stealing tactics, and Ohio State is as hungry as it’s ever been to beat the team up north.
“When you’re at Ohio State, livelihoods are at stake (in The Game),” Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke said. “You gotta win this game. It's mandatory. We had to live with it 365 days, and now it's here. So we're ready.”
The Headlines
A de facto CFP quarterfinal
Michigan and Ohio State both made the four-team playoff last year, so it’s not out of the question that the loser of Saturday’s game could still make the CFP. But it doesn’t seem likely to happen two years in a row.
Going into the final week of the regular season last year, there were only six Power 5 teams who had lost one game or fewer. Going into the final week of the regular season this year, there are still nine Power 5 teams with one loss or fewer, which means the loser of The Game will need a lot of help over the next two weeks to backdoor into the playoff.
That effectively makes The Game a de facto CFP quarterfinal. The winner will enter the Big Ten Championship Game as a heavy favorite to beat Iowa and be one of the top two seeds in this year’s playoff. The loser will likely be headed for the Orange Bowl, which isn’t one of this year’s CFP semifinals.
If Ohio State wants to achieve its second and third major goals of winning the Big Ten and winning the national championship, it has to start by achieving its first major goal of beating the team up north.
Revenge on their minds
While the postseason ramifications of The Game are impossible to ignore, that’s only one reason why Saturday’s game is considered a must-win for the Buckeyes.
After a 19-year stretch from 2001-19 in which Ohio State went 17-2 against the Wolverines, the Buckeyes have lost back-to-back games against Michigan for the first time since the last millennium. The Buckeyes now find themselves at risk of losing to Michigan three times in a row for the first time since 1995-97.
But the scarlet and gray are determined to make sure that doesn’t happen. The Buckeyes have “scars,” in the words of Ryan Day, from their 42-27 loss to Michigan in 2021 and 45-23 loss to Michigan in 2022. They’re using those memories as fuel with their sights set on revenge this year.
“It just drives you every day to work harder and to make sure you do everything you possibly can to win the game,” Day said.
The nation’s two best defenses
Ohio State and Michigan are two of the best teams in college football this year across all phases, but their defenses have primarily stood out. Entering The Game, the Wolverines and the Buckeyes are the only two teams in the nation that held opponents to an average of single digits per game; Michigan leads the FBS with only nine points allowed per game, while Ohio State ranks just behind with 9.3 points allowed per game.
Ohio State leads the nation in yards allowed per play (3.99) while Michigan leads the nation in yards allowed per game (234.8). The Buckeyes also lead the nation in passing yards allowed per attempt (4.7) and per game (144.3). Michigan has been the stouter run defense, ranking ninth in yards allowed per carry (2.96) and per game (90) while Ohio State ranks 21st in both categories (3.32 yards allowed per carry and 108.6 yards allowed per game).
With that in mind, there’s reason to expect a low-scoring defensive slugfest in this year’s game. In all three games involving one of these teams and another ranked team this season, neither team has scored more than 24 points; Ohio State beat Notre Dame 17-14 and Penn State 20-12 while Michigan beat Penn State 24-15.
While Ohio State’s defense struggled mightily in each of its last two games against Michigan, this year’s Buckeye defense has been dominant, allowing no more than 17 points in any of Ohio State’s first 11 games. That might be the biggest reason for Buckeye fans to have confidence entering The Game this year.
But Ohio State will also need its offense, which has had more ups and downs this year, to be on its game to score enough points against the top-ranked defense in the country. The Buckeyes’ hopes of being at their best offensively are bolstered by the fact that they’re back to full strength, with TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover all back up to speed after missing time with injuries.
“Super talented across the board, obviously coached really well, and I think they play really hard, too. When you turn on the film, I think that jumps off, how hard they play, the effort,” Kyle McCord said of Michigan’s defense. “And so we know it's going to be a fist fight on Saturday, but I think we'll be ready for that.”
Keep An Eye on These Matchups
Ohio State’s run defense vs. Michigan’s rushing attack
If you’re looking to pinpoint one reason why Ohio State lost to Michigan in each of the last two seasons, you don’t have to look any further than how the Wolverines carved up the Buckeyes on the ground. Michigan ran for more than 250 yards on averages of more than 7.2 yards per carry in each of the last two rivalry games, scoring nine combined touchdowns (six in 2021, three in 2022) on the ground.
How the Wolverines ran through the Buckeyes wasn’t exactly the same each year; the Wolverines’ numbers ballooned late in the game last year when Donovan Edwards ran for 75- and 85-yard touchdowns, while the Wolverines had more sustained success moving the chains on the ground in 2021. Nevertheless, Ohio State’s failures in stopping the run proved costly in both games, and whether the Buckeyes can stop the run could be the most important factor in The Game once again this year.
Michigan is a team that likes to wear opponents down on the ground, as evidenced by its 32 consecutive rushing attempts to end the game against Penn State. In its two closest games of the year – its last two games against Penn State and Maryland – Michigan has been more hesitant to keep the ball in J.J. McCarthy’s hands, as the Michigan quarterback is just 19-of-31 passing for 201 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception in the Wolverines’ last two games combined.
The Wolverines haven’t been as prolific running the ball this year as they were in the last two seasons; after ranking in the top 15 nationally in rushing yards per game in 2021 and 2022, the Wolverines rank just 50th this season. But they still have one of the best running backs in the country in Blake Corum (who leads the nation with 20 rushing touchdowns) and a home-run hitter in Edwards, who has yet to top 52 rushing yards in a game this season but showed how dangerous he can be against Ohio State last year.
“Their running backs are talented, and their offensive line is talented, so there really is an exactness and a preciseness that our players need to understand,” Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said of the challenge of stopping Michigan’s running game. “My job is to get them to understand by Saturday and be able to do it fast.”
Stopping Blake Corum, who has 888 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 180 carries this season, will be the top priority for Ohio State’s defense. (Photo: Dan Rainville – USA TODAY Sports)
Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Michigan’s defensive front
The offensive line has been Ohio State’s biggest question mark all season, and The Game will present the front five with its biggest test of the year.
Day said it is “extremely important” for Ohio State to be able to run the ball against Michigan, and that will all start with whether the offensive line can open lanes up front and keep the Wolverines’ defensive linemen and linebackers out of the backfield. Ohio State’s running game has shown significant improvement over the past month, with Henderson’s health and explosiveness playing a big part in that, but the Wolverines’ defensive line will be the best Ohio State has faced all season with the big, explosive defensive tackle tandem of Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins leading the way.
The offensive line’s ability to hold up in pass protection will be just as important. McCord has been far better with a clean pocket than he’s been under pressure in his first year as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, so Michigan will likely look to pressure him as much as possible. If the Buckeyes’ front five can hold up, that could open up plenty of opportunities for the likes of Harrison, Egbuka and Stover to make plays downfield. If they don’t, it could be a recipe for disaster.
With its growth throughout the season, Ohio State’s offensive line has earned the confidence of the Buckeyes’ coaches and players that it can get the job done.
“I feel like really the last three or four weeks now, the guys have taken another step, which has been great,” offensive line coach Justin Frye said Wednesday. “Gotta show up on Saturday and play our best, and that's what they're training to do right now.”
Ohio State QB Kyle McCord vs. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
While they won’t be on the field at the same time, the head-to-head battle between Ohio State and Michigan’s quarterbacks is a storyline that will garner plenty of attention, especially considering Ohio State’s decision to recruit McCord over McCarthy – a childhood Buckeye fan – when both were five-star quarterback prospects in the 2021 class.
McCarthy has been the more efficient quarterback for the season as a whole, completing a higher percentage of his passes (73.8% to 66.4%) for more yards per attempt (9.9 to 9.1) and a higher quarterback rating (178.3 to 163.2). The Wolverines’ lack of passing production over the past two weeks suggests the Buckeyes’ passing defense should have an advantage over its competition, though Michigan hadn’t been putting up big numbers through the air last year either before McCarthy threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns against Ohio State.
McCord’s play has been met with mixed reviews throughout the season as he hasn’t led Ohio State to the same level as offensive explosiveness as it had with C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields or Dwayne Haskins, but he’s risen to the occasion when the Buckeyes have needed him to in order to win every game so far. The question all year with McCord has been whether he is good enough for the Buckeyes to beat the top teams in the country; this week is when that will truly be put to the test.
Most importantly, Ohio State needs McCord to take care of the football against a Michigan defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally with 14 interceptions and is tied for the national lead with four pick-sixes. Against a defense that has limited opponents to just 144.8 passing yards per game and five touchdowns all year, McCord also needs to find open receivers and throw the ball accurately to his weapons when they win their matchups, as those opportunities aren’t going to come on every play against a secondary of Michigan’s caliber.
With 12 starts as a Buckeye now under his belt, Day believes McCord is ready for the challenge that lies ahead in Ann Arbor.
“You see him executing plays, you see it in practice, and then it carries over to the field. And that's what you want,” Day said. “Now ultimately, we got to take care of the football and win the game, that's the bottom line here. And the good news is he’s got a great group around him, and he's been in these environments before, so a lot of things in his favor going into the game, but now he's gotta go put it on the field.”
Game Week Talk
“When you're a little kid, you dream of moments like this. Two undefeated teams in the biggest rivalry in sports, you can't draw it up any better than that. But I think at the same time, it's all about the preparation during the week.”– Kyle McCord
After two years of watching C.J. Stroud from the sidelines, McCord is excited for his first opportunity to start in The Game. But he said repeatedly during his interview session this week that his focus was on his preparation rather than on the magnitude of The Game, as he feels that is what will ultimately give him the best chance of leading the Buckeyes to victory.
“This game means a lot for us. And we're gonna get it done for the state of Ohio.”– Denzel Burke
No Buckeye exuded more confidence during his interview session this week than Burke, who said multiple times that the Buckeyes are “gonna get it done.” He feels like the Buckeyes are playing for the entire Buckeye State on Saturday, “and we don't want to let them down,” Burke said.
“This is the only game you have to win at Ohio State. So we're ultra locked in, ultra-focused.”– Emeka Egbuka
It’s not really true that this is the only game Ohio State has to win, but it’s certainly the one that means the most to the Buckeyes, which was the meaning of this comment by Egbuka. Even though Ohio State has already won 11 games, whether this season is considered a success will be largely defined by what happens in this week’s game.
Get Smart
| Ohio State | Pos | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| KYLE MCCORD | QB | J.J. MCCARTHY |
| TREVEYON HENDERSON | RB | BLAKE CORUM |
| MARVIN HARRISON JR. | WR | CORNELIUS JOHNSON |
| JULIAN FLEMING | WR | ROMAN WILSON |
| EMEKA EGBUKA | WR/TE | COLSTON LOVELAND |
| CADE STOVER | TE | AJ BARNER |
| JOSH SIMMONS | LT | LADARIUS HENDERSON |
| DONOVAN JACKSON | LG | TREVOR KEEGAN |
| CARSON HINZMAN | C | DRAKE NUGENT |
| MATT JONES | RG | ZAK ZINTER |
| JOSH FRYAR | RT | KARSEN BARNHART |
| DEFENSE | ||
| JT TUIMOLOAU | DE | JAYLEN HARRELL |
| TYLEIK WILLIAMS | DT | KRIS JENKINS |
| MIKE HALL | DT | MASON GRAHAM |
| JACK SAWYER | DE | BRAIDEN MCGREGOR |
| STEELE CHAMBERS | WLB | MICHAEL BARRETT |
| TOMMY EICHENBERG | MLB | JUNIOR COLSON |
| JORDAN HANCOCK | NB | MIKE SAINRISTIL |
| DENZEL BURKE | CB | WILL JOHNSON |
| DAVISON IGBINOSUN | CB | JOSH WALLACE |
| JOSH PROCTOR | FS | ROD MOORE |
| SONNY STYLES | SS | MAKARI PAIGE |
- Sherrone Moore will serve as Michigan’s acting head coach on Saturday as Jim Harbaugh will serve the final game of his three-game suspension from the Big Ten for the program’s violations of the Big Ten’s sportsmanship policy in connection with its impermissible sign-stealing operation.
- This is the 119th edition of The Game. Ohio State has a 52-60-6 all-time record against Michigan.
- This is the first time Ohio State and Michigan have both entered The Game unbeaten and untied in back-to-back seasons.
- Ohio State enters this game as a betting underdog for the first time in a regular-season game since its 2018 game against Michigan, which it won 62-39.
- ESPN’s College GameDay and FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will both be in Ann Arbor for The Game. It’s the third time each show has been at an Ohio State game this season; Big Noon Kickoff was at Ohio State for its home games against Maryland and Penn State, while GameDay was at OSU’s road game against Notre Dame as well as the Penn State game.
- Michigan’s roster features eight players from Ohio, including two starters: Tight end A.J. Barner (Aurora) and free safety Rod Moore (Clayton/Northmont).
- Ohio State’s roster includes three players from Michigan: Backup safety Cameron Martinez and walk-on brothers Cayden and Kai Saunders.
How It Plays Out
Line: Michigan -3.5, O/U 46.5
More Ohio State vs. Michigan Coverage
To say we know how this game will play out would be foolish. No one expected Michigan to beat Ohio State by multiple scores in each of the last two years – Ohio State was favored going into both games – so no outcome should be considered out of the question when these two rivals meet.
On paper, though, all signs point to a close game with far more defensive stops than touchdowns. As elite as both defenses have been all year, every point is likely to matter in this matchup.
Michigan has the advantage of playing on its home field, which is a big factor in the Wolverines’ status as the betting favorite, but the Buckeyes have plenty of road-game experience to draw on this year as they’ve already played (and won) on the road five times. And while the Buckeyes haven’t been as prolific offensively this year as they have been in Ryan Day’s past seasons, they’ve consistently found a way to win.
Ohio State has the advantage of more dynamic weapons on offense than the Wolverines, and its defense is no longer the disadvantage that it was for the past few years. Michigan has the proven track record of winning The Game in recent years that Ohio State does not, but it no longer has the advantage of being fed information about Ohio State’s play calls by Connor Stalions.
With all of that considered, the consensus prediction among Eleven Warriors staff members is that Ohio State will turn the tables in the rivalry with a close win in the Big House on Saturday.
| Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction | ||||
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24 | 20 |
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