Ohio State’s 2024 schedule can be broken down into roughly four tiers.
The Buckeyes’ first three games of the season can effectively be seen as an extension of the preseason as they begin their schedule with a trio of non-conference games against opponents who project to be significantly overmatched. Ohio State’s three marquee games of the regular season are clearly defined as their games at Oregon on Oct. 12, at Penn State on Nov. 2 and at home against Michigan on Nov. 30.
In between, Ohio State will play six other games against Big Ten opponents who could pose varying degrees of threats even though the Buckeyes will be favored to beat all of them.
As we continue our look ahead to Ohio State’s 2024 season with the Eleven Warriors Season Preview, I asked a panel of eight Eleven Warriors staffers to rank the Buckeyes’ 12 regular-season contests from the game they’re most confident Ohio State will win to the game they expect to present the toughest test. From there, we averaged out their rankings to rank each game in order from easiest to most difficult, then grouped them into tiers based on gaps in the voting.
Tier 1: Non-Conference Cupcakes
1. Akron (Aug. 31, Home)
Average Ranking: 1.25
High Rank: 1
Low Rank: 3
2. Western Michigan (Sept. 7, Home)
Average Ranking: 2.25
High Rank: 2
Low Rank: 3
3. Marshall (Sept. 21, Home)
Average Ranking: 2.5
High Rank: 1
Low Rank: 3
Everyone on our staff agreed that Ohio State’s first three games of the season will be its easiest wins of the year. The competition should increase slightly from game one to game two to game three – Akron went just 2-10 last season while Western Michigan went 4-8 and Marshall went 6-7 – but anything less than a comfortable blowout win for the Buckeyes would be a disappointment in all three of these games.
Even by Group of 5 standards, none of these teams are expected to be good in 2024; Marshall is ranked 89th in Phil Steele’s preseason power poll while Western Michigan is 104th and Akron is 125th.
Tier 2: Likely Comfortable Conference Wins
4. Purdue (Nov. 9, Home)
Average Ranking: 4.75
High Rank: 4
Low Rank: 7
5. Indiana (Nov. 23, Home)
Average Ranking: 5.5
High Rank: 4
Low Rank: 6
6. Northwestern (Nov. 16, Away)
Average Ranking: 5.625
High Rank: 4
Low Rank: 8
Following the first three games, Ohio State’s second-easiest stretch of the season should come in its second through fourth games of November, when the Buckeyes will play Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana in successive weeks.
While Purdue has a reputation for giving Ohio State scares, the Buckeyes have won three of their last five meetings with the Boilermakers by 28-plus points and Purdue is projected to be one of the Big Ten’s worst teams in 2024. There’s always the risk of a letdown one week after a road game at Penn State, but the Buckeyes could still be heavier favorites against the Boilermakers than any other Big Ten game this season.
New Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has made it clear the Hoosiers will be playing to win against Ohio State, and the Hoosiers will be coming off a bye week. They’re likely to treat an opportunity to beat Ohio State like their Super Bowl while the Buckeyes will have a hard time not looking ahead to their must-win game against Michigan one week later. All of that said, we still don’t expect the Hoosiers to have the firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium, where Ohio State will certainly be hoping to take care of business early and get its starters some rest before the battle with the Wolverines.
Ohio State’s last two games against Northwestern – a 21-7 win in Evanston in 2022 and a 22-10 Big Ten Championship Game win in 2020 – have proven to be tougher than expected, but the Buckeyes have still won 10 straight contests against the Wildcats. Northwestern will also have the advantage of a bye week before it plays Ohio State, but its home-field advantage will be mitigated by playing at Wrigley Field, where Buckeyes fans could easily outnumber home-team supporters. Like Purdue, Northwestern projects as one of the Big Ten’s worst teams this year on paper.
Tier 2.5: Could Be A Trap Game, Could Be A Blowout
7. Michigan State (Sept. 28, Away)
Average Ranking: 6.25
High Rank: 4
Low Rank: 9
While everyone on our staff agreed that the three non-conference games should be Ohio State’s three easiest wins of the season and no one ranked Purdue, Northwestern or Indiana among the four toughest games of the season, there was slightly less consensus on where Ohio State’s conference opener against Michigan State falls on the difficulty spectrum.
On paper, this is another game the Buckeyes will be projected to win comfortably. Ohio State has won eight straight games against Michigan State by an average of more than 30 points, and the Spartans are coming off a 4-8 season in 2023.
But this will be both the first Big Ten game and first road game of the year for the Buckeyes, making it the toughest test – at least relatively – Ohio State will have faced to that point in the season. And the Spartans have one of the Big Ten’s most intriguing quarterbacks in Oregon State transfer Aidan Chiles, whose big arm and athleticism make him a potential breakout star in East Lansing who could give Ohio State’s defense its first real challenge of the year.
Tier 3: Games the Buckeyes Can’t Overlook
8. Nebraska (Oct. 26, Home)
Average Ranking: 7.875
High Rank: 7
Low Rank: 9
9. Iowa (Oct. 5, Home)
Average Ranking: 8.75
High Rank: 8
Low Rank: 9
Outside of the Big Ten’s “Big Four,” Iowa and Nebraska might be the biggest threats to make a surprise run to the Big Ten Championship Game. Each of their schedules makes it realistic that they could bring undefeated records into their trips to Ohio Stadium – particularly for Iowa – which means both teams should have plenty to play for as they gun for an upset against the Buckeyes in October.
The Buckeyes have won their last seven games against Nebraska by an average of more than 30 points, but the Cornhuskers are expected to make a leap forward in Matt Rhule’s second year as coach. The arrival of former Ohio State quarterback commit Dylan Raiola gives Nebraska the potential to be more dangerous offensively than it’s been in some time, though that gives the Buckeyes all the more reason to go into that game motivated to make a statement, especially since they’ll be coming off of a bye week.
Iowa might be Ohio State’s biggest competition for the crown of having the Big Ten’s best defense this year, and the Hawkeyes are expected to be better offensively than they’ve been the last few years. They’ll have to be a lot better offensively if they want to seriously threaten the Buckeyes, but their defense will present the first major test of the year for Ohio State’s offense, the side of the ball where the Buckeyes have more concerns.
Ohio State shouldn’t lose to Nebraska or Iowa, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if both games are competitive. They combine with the road trip to Oregon to make October the toughest month of the season for Ohio State on a pound-for-pound basis even though the Buckeyes only play three games in October.
Tier 4: The Big Tests
10. Penn State (Nov. 2, Away)
Average Ranking: 10.25
High Rank: 10
Low Rank: 11
While no one on our staff sees Penn State as the toughest game of the season, all of us agreed that the trip to Happy Valley will be one of the three most challenging contests of the year.
Beaver Stadium is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in college football, and Penn State is expected to be a College Football Playoff contender this season. The Nittany Lions’ defense should be one of the best in the country again this year, while Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are one of the nation’s top running back tandems.
Drew Allar will need to be much better than he was last year at Ohio Stadium – where he completed just 18 of 42 passing attempts for 191 yards – if the Nittany Lions are going to end their seven-year losing streak against the Buckeyes. If the Ohio native can perform up to his potential as a second-year starting quarterback, the Nittany Lions will present a serious road test for Ohio State in its first game of November.
Ohio State will face one of its three toughest tests of the season when it travels to State College to play Penn State.
11. Michigan (Nov. 30, Home)
Average Ranking: 11
High Rank: 10
Low Rank: 12
Even though Michigan has three straight wins over Ohio State, most of our staff sees The Game as only the second- or third-toughest game on the Buckeyes’ 2024 schedule.
The Wolverines are replacing the vast majority of their starters from last year’s national championship team, including J.J. McCarthy and their entire offensive line, and neither Jim Harbaugh nor Connor Stalions will be on their sidelines as they make their way into what should be a packed house at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State’s loaded defense should have the upper hand on an inexperienced Michigan offense, while Michigan’s defense doesn’t project to be quite as dominant as it was a year ago.
Ohio State was favored to beat Michigan in 2021 and 2022 too, though, before losing both of those games by multiple scores. All the pressure will be on Ryan Day and the Buckeyes as they look to break out of their rivalry-game funk this season, and the last three years are reason enough for OSU fans to be nervous about this game until the Buckeyes actually prove they can beat their northern rivals.
12. Oregon (Oct. 12, Away)
Average Ranking: 11.75
High Rank: 11
Low Rank: 12
Everyone on our staff agrees that Ohio State’s road trip to Eugene will be one of its two toughest games of the regular season, with a majority of us agreeing that Oregon is the team we’re most concerned will beat the Buckeyes before the postseason.
Out of all teams in the Big Ten – and perhaps the entire country outside of Georgia – Oregon looks like the team best built to compete with Ohio State. Preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Dillon Gabriel leads a well-rounded offense that should be both explosive through the air and tough to stop on the ground, while its defense should also be competitive at all three levels.
Add in the fact that Ohio State will have to travel more than 2,000 miles for this game and that the Buckeyes will be playing for the sixth week in a row, and bringing a win home from Autzen Stadium won’t be easy. The final game of the first half of the season will serve as the first true test of whether Ohio State has a national championship-caliber team – provided the Buckeyes beat Michigan State and Iowa – and it could prove to be the toughest hurdle for Ohio State to clear in its quest for an undefeated regular season.
