Some skeptics once said Ryan Day started at third base when he took over for Urban Meyer, but last Friday, he hit a home run.
While Bill O'Brien was an outstanding hire for Ohio State at the time given his experience and ability to lead an offense, Chip Kelly replacing O'Brien – who had since left for the Boston College head coaching job – as OSU's offensive coordinator could be an even bigger addition to Day's offense.
In hiring the former UCLA head coach, the Buckeyes have combined a head coach with tremendous passing expertise with Kelly, who has a history of leading elite rushing attacks. It's two puzzle pieces that seem to perfectly align, at least on paper. Day has his veteran offensive play-caller, a former head coach with plenty of experience whom Day can trust to hand over the play-calling duties for the first time during his time in Columbus.
Day was once quarterbacking – literally – Kelly's offense at New Hampshire. To come full circle, Kelly will now be quarterbacking – figuratively – Day's offense with the Buckeyes, as the 60-year-old will lead the offense while Day takes on a CEO-type role for the program.
Run. The. Damn. Ball.
It's a saying as old as time used by football fans everywhere, right or wrong. So much so that the Eleven Warriors Dry Goods shop even has a T-shirt that says that exact thing.
That said, with Kelly now leading the offense in 2024, Ohio State fans can expect the Buckeyes to run the ball more often than they have recently. Part of that is OSU's personnel, as the two big-time transfers on offense – Will Howard and Quinshon Judkins – that Ohio State added before Kelly joined the Buckeyes' staff fit very well with Kelly's style of offense. One could argue that Kelly’s style fits better with OSU's personnel than O'Brien's would have.
While Kelly will only add his thoughts and insights to Day's playbook rather than bring in a completely different style, his creativity as a designer of offensive concepts should bring only positive things to Ohio State's offense.
Day’s offense has had some noticeable tendencies, particularly with his proclivity to run the ball when lined up in the pistol or under center. With Kelly able to focus solely on coordinating the offense rather than balancing coordinator and head coach duties as Day has at Ohio State, the Buckeyes should be able to break those tendencies and become less predictable.
Kelly’s offenses have run the ball at least 58% of the time seven times in his 12 seasons as a play-caller at either Oregon or UCLA. In total, Kelly's offenses have run the ball on 59.21% of plays during his 12 seasons as a play-caller at the FBS level.
Excluding the COVID-shortened season in 2020, Kelly's offenses have had at least one 1,000-yard rusher in 10 of 11 seasons. In five of his six seasons leading Oregon's offense between 2007-12, the Ducks had a 1,500-yard rusher. In the lone season that they didn't, the Ducks had two 1,000-yard rushers in 2008.
| Year | Team | Run % |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Oregon | 58.52% |
| 2008 | Oregon | 47.28% |
| 2009 | Oregon | 59.63% |
| 2010 | Oregon | 61.42% |
| 2011 | Oregon | 60.85% |
| 2012 | Oregon | 64.15% |
| 2018 | UCLA | 50.85% |
| 2019 | UCLA | 51.47% |
| 2020 | UCLA | 60.08% |
| 2021 | UCLA | 58.75% |
| 2022 | UCLA | 53.79% |
| 2023 | UCLA | 52.77% |
Comparatively, Day's offenses have been more pass-based since he took over offensive play-calling duties at Ohio State in 2018 (one as a co-offensive coordinator, five as a head coach), which makes sense given the head coach's expertise through the air and the fantastic passers he’s had such as C.J. Stroud and Dwayne Haskins. Day's offenses have run the ball on 54.03% of plays during his six seasons as a play-caller, more than five percent less often than Kelly.
| Year | Run % |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 49.35% |
| 2019 | 60% |
| 2020 | 58.38% |
| 2021 | 45.17% |
| 2022 | 52.48% |
| 2023 | 51.01% |
During The Joel Klatt Show on Tuesday, Klatt discussed how he believes the Buckeyes will be a better running team with Kelly leading the offense and will lean into that part of the offense more often in 2024, especially against Michigan in late November.
“Now, he'll work for what I would call his best friend in the profession, maybe even overall," Klatt said. "They have a history. Chip coached Ryan Day at New Hampshire. It makes all the sense in the world. There's nobody that Ryan Day trusts more in this sport than Chip Kelly. ... Chip will have a mobile quarterback, the best backfield in the country in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins and (receivers like) Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. He's like, 'I get to call plays?'
“Ohio State will become a better running team. Chip Kelly rushes the football as well as anybody in the country. I think Ohio State will lean into that more. Remember, over the past three years, part of what has gotten Ohio State beat against Michigan is that Michigan was the better team running the football. ... Last year, Ohio State was 88th in the country running the football. That needs to get better, and it will. Ryan Day's main objective is to beat Michigan, and I think he's diving into that. Nobody has had a better offseason than Ohio State. This adds to that.”
Ohio State has had just three 1,000-yard rushers since 2018. That said, since Day took over the offense, the Buckeyes have had a 2,000-yard rusher (J.K. Dobbins with 2,003 rushing yards in 2020), an accolade that a Kelly-led offense has never had.
Run, Quarterback, Run!
Kelly's offenses have always loved to run the ball, so it only makes sense that much of the time, the quarterback has also been able to use his legs as a weapon rather than just be a pocket passer.
In 149 games leading Oregon and UCLA's offenses, Kelly's starting quarterbacks have totaled 5,309 yards and 75 touchdowns on 1,198 carries, an average of 8.04 carries, 35.6 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.
| Year | School | QB | Rushing Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Oregon | Dennis Dixon | 105 carries, 583 yards, 9 TDs (10 games) |
| 2008 | Oregon | Jeremiah Masoli | 127 carries, 718 yards, 10 TDs (12 games) |
| 2009 | Oregon | Jeremiah Masoli | 121 carries, 668 yards, 13 TDs (12 games) |
| 2010 | Oregon | Darron Thomas | 93 carries, 486 yards, 5 TDs (13 games) |
| 2011 | Oregon | Darron Thomas | 56 carries, 206 yards, 3 TDs (13 games) |
| 2012 | Oregon | Marcus Mariota | 106 carries, 752 yards, 5 TDs (13 games) |
| 2018 | UCLA | Wilton Speight | 39 carries, 27 yards, 2 TDs (7 games) |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 50 carries, 68 yards (9 games) | ||
| 2019 | UCLA | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 118 carries, 198 yards, 4 TDs (11 games) |
| 2020 | UCLA | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 55 carries, 306 yards, 3 TDs (5 games) |
| 2021 | UCLA | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 130 carries, 609 yards, 9 TDs (11 games) |
| 2022 | UCLA | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 118 yards, 645 yards, 12 TDs (13 games) |
| 2023 | UCLA | Dante Moore | 45 carries, -84 yards (9 games) |
| Ethan Gilbert | 35 carries, 127 yards (11 games) |
When you pair that with Day stating Ohio State needs a quarterback who can run the ball, or at least be a threat that needs to be accounted for in the run game, there’s reason to expect the quarterback to keep the ball more often this season. Add in the fact that Howard, TreVeyon Henderson and Judkins have combined for 6,391 and 82 touchdowns on the ground in 92 career games, and Kelly will certainly have some fun in the run game this fall.
A Two-Headed Offensive Mastermind
According to FEI ratings, which is essentially college football's version of KenPom's ratings in college basketball, Day and Kelly have had two of the best offenses in college football throughout much of their tenures as offensive play callers.
| Year | OFEI Rating |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.16 (4th) |
| 2019 | 1.66 (3rd) |
| 2020 | 1.61 (4th) |
| 2021 | 1.86 (1st) |
| 2022 | 1.59 (3rd) |
| 2023 | 1.15 (13th) |
| Year | OFEI Rating | Year | OFEI Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | .49 (9th) | 2018 | -.08 (58th) |
| 2008 | .43 (14th) | 2019 | -.11 (59th) |
| 2009 | .37 (15th) | 2020 | .37 (29th) |
| 2010 | 1.08 (5th) | 2021 | .75 (13th) |
| 2011 | 1.13 (4th) | 2022 | 1.01 (11th) |
| 2012 | 1.30 (4th) | 2023 | -.19 (61st) |
Whether it's through the air or on the ground, Ohio State’s offense is built to be high-scoring, high-flying and running wild in 2024 with Kelly calling the plays and Day also contributing to the offensive game plan. With a three-headed monster in the backfield along with a receiving corps headlined by Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss and Jeremiah Smith, the sky is the limit for the Buckeye offense in 2024. If Day and Kelly can mesh the passing game with the rushing attack together and get the best out of one another and OSU's offense, it could (and should) be one of the best in the country.
